I need formulas for LOLP and EENS calculations when i have probability distribution functions of Wind power and conventional generation.
Dear Aamir
If you want to model reliability analysis or precisely wind generator adequacy analysis you need:
1. Load model of the part of the system which wind generator or wind park supply. You can enter load hourly curve. Program will make load duration curve and after that create probability state of loads.
2. For the wind generator you need to enter its PDF curve like in attachment
Then you need network data and network reliability data if you model complex system.
If you model only wind with load point 1 and 2 are enough.
Program for that you need to use is DIgSILENT software from Gemany
Srete
Dear Mohamad
His question was specificaly related to reliability analysis which is special part of analysis More close wind generatro adequacy analysis when he know PDF of both production stohactic of wind power and consumptionwhic is also stohactical nature. He is realy interest to evaluate reliability indicators using new methods like Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and Dependent Discrete Convolution (DDC).
In papers are several paragrafs related to relaiability analysis
In 4.1 Reliability Assessment is presented and equations for LOLP computation.
Srete
Dear Professor Srete,
Thanks for explaining it in a better way.
Dear Mohammad,
I dont need simple formulas for LOLP and EENS calculation but for dependent probabilistic sequences using PDF of wind farm and load. I have found some reference papers but they are in Chinese. Therefore, i need help to understand them properly.
Aamir Nawaz.
for this particular problem researcher has to find load model then move further for LOLP
You need to use PDF function of loads and PDF functions of Wind generator which is well known. For the loads it is more complexr since different types of load exist in EPS.
You need to make it yourself .
Srete
Unlike the conventional generators, the input resources to variable renewable generators are stochastically variable. Therefore, the variable renewable generators are represented by multi-state models consequently, the overall generation system has multi-states. The following chapter illustrate the construction of multi-state model for wind energy sources, and the extraction of the main reliability indices.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307585524_Wind_Energy_Conversion_Systems_Reliability_Perspective
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