How far we might force the globe in coming decades.Scientists believe humankind is behind most of that warming. Will it depend on just how sensitively the climate system (air, oceans, ice, land, and life) responds to the GHGs we're pumping into the atmosphere.  

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/309/5731/100.full

hi,

I have watched a documentary that suggested global warming will lead to a climate shift and an ice age!

Dear Professor @Mahmoud, thank you for the question; it is a fundamental issue that should be given highest priority and more research and practical steps should be applied to stop the reasons that support the warming of the planet.

Dr. Tom Goreau, who is a prestigious restoration ecologist, has recently spoken about how really dangerous the situation is, and has also given credible solutions:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTMiii-BRtU&list=UUyhQvTItE7QkMCC-QnlwbRA

Let's call for an environment friendly awareness to avoid this horrible and dangerous conclusion!  

Dear Ruxandra, Thank you for prompt answer. Unfortunately, "youtube" is filtered over here! i appreciate If you can provide other links.

I also think that using the alternative environmentally friendly energy sources can solve this problem up to some extent.

Dear @Mahmoud, please visit the following thread. Our friend @Gianni ask in which direction the temperature is changing! There are different opinions! Global Temperature Is Dropping, Not Rising!

https://www.researchgate.net/post/The_global_temperature_is_changing_but_do_we_really_know_in_which_direction

http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/6704-global-temperature-is-dropping-not-rising

Dear @Ljubomir. While neither scientists nor the public could be sure in the 1970s whether the world was warming or cooling, people were increasingly inclined to believe that global climate was on the move, and in no small way.

I found some very good historical data and graphs (plz. see the attached links and following answers) about global warming which I am going to share it for completeness. As you may conclude the direction is still uncertain! So  Dropping or Rising (which way!), that is the question.

The influential 1999 "hockey stick" reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the past 1000 years (relative to the average of 1961-90); the dark line shows mean values and the gray band, often overlooked, shows the range of uncertainty:

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/20ctrend.htm

This is another data from the same site.

The heat content of the upper layers of the world's oceans is the most comprehensive measure of changes in the temperature of the planet (the oceans contain far more of any new heat added than the thin atmosphere). As seen in hundreds of thousands of measurement analyzed by three independent groups, it began a steady rise in the 1970s. That was just when greenhouse gas levels reached a level high enough to be important. A pause in warming since ca. 2000, seen in surface air temperature, is not seen here: the planet continues to warm up. (For latest updates see NOAA's ocean heat content site.)

This one from World Meteorological Organization.too!

Global temperature 1850-2008 Average annual surface temperature, based on measurements by meteorological stations, ships and satellites, as reported independently by three different groups: NOAA (NCDC) and NASA (GISS) in the US, and the combined Hadley Centre and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in the UK (HadCRUT3).

Finally this is taken from the NASA-GISS site (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/)

The NASA global temperature data, separated into Northern and Southern Hemisphere curves. Note the greater variation in the North. (Warming was especially pronounced in the Arctic, as predicted.)

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

I have heard from some conservative people that all these questions about climate change, is a nice opportunity to get grands for research. I believe that there is a real problem with "climate change" and we should make first priority to solve some basic problems.

Changes in both temperatures and CO2 are considerable and generally synchronized, according to data analysis from ice and air samples collected over the last half century from permanent glaciers in Antarctica and other places.

Comparison of Atmospheric Temperature with CO2 Over The Last 400,000 Years!

Do rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations cause increasing global temperatures, or could it be the other way around? This is one of the questions being debated today.  CO2 lags an average of about 800 years behind the temperature changes-- confirming that CO2 is not the cause of the temperature increases. 

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/last_400k_yrs.html

Global warming began 18,000 years ago, accompanied by a steady rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Humans are quite likely the cause of a large portion of the 80 ppm rise in CO2 since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, and from a distance, it looks possible that increasing CO2 may cause atmospheric temperatures rise. 

However, as I said before, CO2 lags an average of about 800 years behind the temperature changes-- confirming that CO2 is not the primary driver of the temperature changes.

Interestingly, from 1999 to the present the temperature of the mid troposphere has actually decreased slightly and surface temperatures have ceased warming (see attached PDF) -- even as CO2 concentrations have continued to increase (3). This should not be happening if CO2 increases to the atmosphere are the primary driver of global warming.

Carbon Dioxide vs Temperature Graph (for shorter periods e.g. last 50 or 100 years  see the attached link)

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/temp_vs_CO2.html

The average atmospheric temperature rose by about 1 degree Fahrenheit. By 2000, that increase was responsible for the annual loss of about 160,000 lives and the loss of 5.5 million years of healthy life, according to estimates by the World Health Organization.

http://www.climate.org/topics/health.html

I guess models are still far from being accurate. IPCC used few models for ocean acidification and the reports has predicted 7.2 pH in year 2100, while 7.0 pH is recorded on pPatagonian coast and Nabian coast since 2012.

You have to wait a little until finishing a submission of a relevant work. Sorry for the delay...

Meanwhile, please give attention of Kenneth's writings.

The climate is changing and the earth is warming up. Climate Change may be one of the greatest threats facing our planet. 

Humans depend on a sustainable and healthy environment and yet we have damaged the environment in numerous ways. This section introduces other issues including biodiversity, climate change, population, sustainable development, and ...

There should be leadership by central players in climate change debate (especially the US) and agreeing on country-by-country targets or cutting greenhouse gas emissions (Although, It may be impossible to garner international consensus on emissions cuts).  

Hot discussion is ongoing. Some more reading may enrich this discussion! 

"Rising carbon dioxide emissions would indeed be a cause for strong concern if they were the sole or primary cause of global temperature changes, and if the earth were on the brink of a global warming crisis. The real-world disconnect between carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures is one of the factors that argues strongly against such a scenario, however.

We can see just how far-fetched the claims of global warming activists are by comparing real-world emissions data and real-world temperature data versus global warming predictions. Scientist-activists at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, for example, in 2009 produced a pie chart showing the predicted likelihood of various temperature scenarios through the end of the century. According to the pie chart, there was a better than 50% chance that under a business-as-usual scenario global temperatures would rise more than 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Moreover, the chart predicted a 9% chance of temperatures rising more than 7 degrees Celsius, but less than a 1% chance of temperatures rising less than 3 degrees Celsius this century."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/11/09/carbon-dioxide-emissions-up-sharply-yet-temperatures-are-flat/

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/02/new_research_from_mit_scientis.html

http://globalchange.mit.edu/

Dear @Kenneth, @Ljubomir and all,

Thank you for interesting discussion. While all the 26 answered on this thread so far interesting and added more knowledge to our understanding of the trend and show (or sometime don't show) correlation among the main players in global climate change such as population, CO2 and GHG emissions, temperature, etc.  but I have not received any answer to my original questions "Are models are good enough to predict such phenomena? Which models you recommend?" Please comment on this part of the question too. Thank you.

Dear Kenneth. Thank you for prompt answer. With 39 explanations and counting, and some climate scientists now arguing that it might last yet another decade, the IPCC has sidelined itself in irrelevance until it has something serious to say about the pause and has reflected on whether its alarmism is justified, given its reliance on computer models that predicted temperature rises that have not occurred. – Rupert Darwall. 

The statement by Rupert Darwall concisely states what is at stake with regards to the ‘pause.’

According to the following papers (plz. see link) it is concluded that convincing attribution of ‘more than half’ of the recent warming to humans requires understanding natural variability and rejecting natural variability as a predominant explanation for the overall century scale warming and also the warming in the latter half of the 20th century. Global climate models and tree ring based proxy reconstructions are not fit for this purpose.

http://judithcurry.com/2014/09/01/how-long-is-the-pause/

A key for answering such a question is the quality of used data and the method that every author uses in order to compute average temperatures. Unfortunately, such 'details' are not so often been presented.

Take for example the concept of anomaly: How can we accept it as a reliable 'tool' if the author has not even explained :

...to be continued...

Dear Demetris,

You are right, as people working on global temperature have very few datasets to choose from. One is the temperature anomaly dataset developed by NOAA.

Maybe the problem lies with us (model's users and developers!), too!  Scientists try to predict future climate, not by actually observing worldwide weather, but by “models”. The predictions using these models over the last quarter of century has been proved false! It seems neither (despite increased CO2 emissions) the globe is heating up, nor the polar ice caps are melting! 

Well its difficult from my point of view, but what ever changes i am observing in last three years that the span of seasons in India is shifting, monsoon is delayed, winter is cold and summer became too hot in India. Its sign of global warming that might be affecting these seasons specially in temporal zone.

In a recent study by Rahimi et al. [1] spatial changes of Extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran was investigated using data from 181 synoptic meteorological stations (average 1970–2005) from the meteorological organization of Iran.

Results indicated that simulated changes indicate shifts to warmer and drier zones. For example, in the current, extra arid-cold (A1.1m2) climate is covering the largest area of the country (21.4 %), whereas in both A1B and A2 scenarios in the 2050s and the 2080s, extra arid-moderate (A1.1m3) and extra arid-warm (A1.1m4) will be the climate and will occupy the largest area of the country, about %21 and %38, respectively. This findings suggests that the global climate change will have a profound effect on the future distribution of severe aridity in Iran.

[1] Jaber Rahimi, Meisam Ebrahimpour, Ali Khalili (2013). Spatial changes of Extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol 112, Issue 3-4, pp 409-418. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-012-0741-8.

As I pointed out already in the question "climate change" is mainly caused by human activities, but its impact is largely on the poor.. It should be noted that developing countries, despite having contributed least to GHG emissions, are likely to be the most affected by the climate change for many reasons. Effects include food insecurity, ill health, loss of forests and biodiversity, social and political instability,  economic decline, ..., all of which will be hardest on the poor. Accordingly, we should help to mobilize strong public and political support for actions to mitigate climate change. More investigations on the nature and characteristics of climatic changes, better modeling  and also the urgent measures  in combating the threat is necessary. Hence, any thought in these direction is appreciated.

Dear Kenneth. Your stand with regard to "human use of fossil fuels created the best lifestyle that more human beings than ever have been able to enjoy" was/is still the norm and acceptable. But how about harnessing renewable energies like the solar, wind and geothermal energies to replace the present day burning of fossil fuel energy for lighting, heating, cooling, manufacturing, cooking, transport, entertainment, etc. This will definitely be a good alternative and will help to reduce the emission of GHGs and ozone depletion and in the long run the global warming effect. Therefore, provision should be made for integrating climate change considerations into national policies through legislated regulation.

A changing climate affects the prerequisites of population health: clean air and water, sufficient food, natural constraints on infectious disease agents, and the adequacy and security of shelter. A warmer and more variable climate leads to higher levels of some air pollutants and more frequent extreme weather events. It increases the rates and ranges of transmission of infectious diseases through unclean water and contaminated food, and by affecting vector organisms (such as mosquitoes) and intermediate or reservoir host species that harbour the infectious agent (such as cattle,[12] bats and rodents). Changes in temperature, rainfall and seasonality compromise agricultural production in many regions, including some of the least developed countries, thus jeopardising child health and growth and the overall health and functional capacity of adults. As warming proceeds, the severity (and perhaps frequency) of weather-related disasters will increase - and appears to have done so in a number of regions of the world over the past several decades.[13] Therefore, in summary, global warming, together with resultant changes in food and water supplies, can indirectly cause increases in a range of adverse health outcomes, including malnutrition, diarrhea, injuries, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and water-borne and insect-transmitted diseases.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_humans

Dear Mahfuz,

Thank you for your detail comment and the consequences of global warming we are facing. One way to reduce the negative environmental impacts  associated with the generation of energy is the use of more energy efficient systems.

Some facts about temperature and climate of Iran. She has a hot, dry climate characterized by long, hot, dry summers and short, cool winters. The climate is influenced by Iran's location between the subtropical aridity of the Arabian desert areas and the subtropical humidity of the eastern Mediterranean area.

based on Koeppen-Geiger classification, Iran can be divided into 4 different climate zones: The Climate of the Western and southwestern areas can be classified as BWh climate; a hot, dry desert climate with annual average temperatures above 18°C. A small zone between the Persian Gulf the Turkish border in the mid of Iran can be classified as BSh climate, a hot, dry Climate with the annual average temperature above 18°C. The eastern and northern areas of Iran have a Csa climate; a mild, semi-humid climate with dry summers, mild winters and the warmest month above 22°C. Finally, the mountainous regions of northern Iran can be classified as Dsa climate, a cold snow Climate with dry summers and wet winters with the warmest month over 22°C and the coldest month below -3°C.

Simulation of the global warming effect on temperature component in Iran

The following figure shows the average of temperature annual and seasonal changes in Iran till 2100 based on the average temperature changes from 1961 to 1990. It is worth mentioning that each season's rank based on temperature increment in future is in a way that first the maximum temperature increase would be observed in summer, and then in autumn, spring, and finally in winter

The world will be really hot or cold in the coming decades as a result of global climate change impacts because some research suggests that average global temperature is falling and not rising.

http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/6704-global-temperature-is-dropping-not-rising

Dear @Ajay. Thank you for your comment. The point you mentioned and the related link was already provided by dear Ljubomir and I answered that already. Briefly, the current modeling status and predictions of average global temperature are not consistent. So the rise or fall of global temperature is still a controversial issue. 

Warm events are all associated with active solar magnetic activity

The mechanism by which active solar magnetic activity causes warming remains speculative but could be one of or a combination of the following

1) variable solar magnetic activity is accompanied by variable irradiance;

2) variable solar magnetic activity is accompanied by variable spectral output

3) cosmic rays affect global cloud cover

4) cosmic rays affect the position and activity of the polar vortex

http://euanmearns.com/solar-influence-on-glaciation-in-greenland/

Dear Kenneth. About your inquiry about "Have the temperatures in Iran since 1998 "paused" . I guess [1]  the answer would be "NO". Unofficial thermal satellite observations revealed last year that Iran’s Lut Desert had the world’s all-time hottest temperature in 2005, when the mercury soared to an utterly astounding 159.3 0F. I include a link for further study.

[1] warning: I am not expert in this field else would not ask for help.

http://archive.dailyrecord.com/article/20131219/GRASSROOTS/312190001/Earthweek-Research-shows-global-warming-effects-accelerating

Professor Mahmoud,

you said that "I am not expert in this field else would not ask for help." I think that even an expert would need help, or he is not one endowed with pansophy!

Dear all, the answer is that we cannot perform a valid inference due to lack of reliable data.

Of course I will come back with more arguments, but later.

Dear Mahmoud, 

"pansophy" is a Greek loan-word to English. The Greek word "σοφία" (see also philo-sophy") means "wise" and "pan" is some kind of everything. "πάνσοφος"~pansophy means the guy who knows everything!

Dear All; Definitely World is going to be warmer and hot due to climate change. We have to have switch over to alternative energy to reduce green house gasses. whih are main reason in temperature rise. Solar energy use for various purposes and agricultural uses may help in this regards. Only in India if all available diesel/petrol pumps engine (21 million) being used to lift water for irrigation converted on solar energy it can produce 120 Giga watt electricity and help in reducing green house gasses significantly. Thanks

General census says that Earth is already experiencing significant global warming.. Some climate scientists warn that the pace of global warming could be much more rapid than that predicted even a few years ago. Additionally, increasing GHG concentrations will have many effects. GHG concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to increase unless the billions of tons of our annual emissions decrease substantially. Increased concentrations are expected to:

• Increase Earth's average temperature
• Influence the patterns and amounts of precipitation
• Reduce ice and snow cover, as well as permafrost
• Raise sea level
• Increase the acidity of the oceans

These changes will impact our food supply, water resources, infrastructure, ecosystems, and even our own health .

HOW MUCH HAS THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISEN IN THE LAST 100 YEARS?

According to the IPCC, the averaged over all land and ocean surfaces, temperatures warmed roughly 0.85ºC from 1880 to 2012, Why should we care about one degree of warming? After all, the temperature fluctuates by many degrees every day where we live.

The graph below clearly shows the variability of global temperature over various time intervals (such as year to year or between decades) as well as the long-term increase since 1880. Analyses from various groups indicate that the decade between 2000 and 2009 as the hottest since modern records began more than a century ago.

About following Figure: Global average temperature since 1880. This graph from NOAA shows the annual trend in average global air temperature in degrees Celsius, through December 2013. For each year, the range of uncertainty is indicated by the gray vertical bars. The blue line tracks the changes in the trend over time.

https://www2.ucar.edu/climate/faq/how-much-has-global-temperature-risen-last-100-years

Dear Kenneth, Thank you for the answer. I wanted to emphasis in my last comment that the world is getting warmer whether the cause is human activity or natural variability.

To answer you back I noticed that 60 to 70 percentages of this warming  (0.85ºC) has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20°C per decade. The global temperature mainly depends on how much energy the planet receives from the Sun and how much it radiates back into space—quantities that change very little. The amount of energy radiated by the Earth depends significantly on the chemical composition of the atmosphere, particularly the amount of heat-trapping GHGs. So even a 0.85ºC global change is significant because it takes a vast amount of heat to warm all the oceans, atmosphere, and land by that much.

Dear Kenneth & Mahmoud:

The global average temperature for 1880-2013 and Northern Hemisphere is 9.73 °C = 49.52 °F.

The 20th century average again for North is 9.77 °C. = 49.59 °F less than 12.9 °C=55.2 °F.

(I have to compute both hemispheres, later)

I agree for USA 1900-2000 (except ALASKA & HAWAII) that it is 11.29 °C=52.32 °F. 

Be careful with data.

Models are unreliable

"[Models] are full of fudge factors that are fitted to the existing climate, so the models more or less agree with the observed data. But there is no reason to believe that the same fudge factors would give the right behaviour in a world with different chemistry, for example in a world with increased CO2 in the atmosphere." (Freeman Dyson)

Climate models are mathematical representations of the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, ice – and the sun. This is clearly a very complex task, so models are built to estimate trends rather than events. For example, a climate model can tell you it will be cold in winter, but it can’t tell you what the temperature will be on a specific day – that’s weather forecasting. Climate trends are weather, averaged out over time - usually 30 years. Trends are important because they eliminate - or "smooth out" - single events that may be extreme, but quite rare.

Climate models have to be tested to find out if they work. We can’t wait for 30 years to see if a model is any good or not; models are tested against the past, against what we know happened. If a model can correctly predict trends from a starting point somewhere in the past, we could expect it to predict with reasonable certainty what might happen in the future.

Climate models have already predicted many of the phenomena for which we now have empirical evidence. Climate models form a reliable guide to potential climate change.

Source:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm

Fossil fuels anyway are not going to last very long and alternate energy sources are to be relied upon. Else the nature will take its own course and only the ones capable of withstanding the increasing temperatures will survive. Thus the supply and demand of energy will make an auto-balance.

Dear Shanker, You are very right by saying "Else the nature will take its own course " unless we change our practices including the industry part. Actually, a major cause of global warming is the attitude of mankind to Nature! Almost 100% of the observed temperature increase over the last 50 years has been due to the increase in the atmosphere of GHG concentrations like water vapor, CO2, methane and ozone. GHGs are those gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect. The largest contributing source of GHG is the burning of fossil fuels leading to the emission of CO2.

Please refer to the following link for a summary and more graphs about the cause and effects of global warming.

http://timeforchange.org/main-cause-of-global-warming-solutions

That is true dear @Kenneth, we do have to stare us in the face and everyone should ask him/herself : What have You done personally? We have to change our habits and habits of our communities members!

I am in agreement with Kenneth, these trends are bound to go up if we plot the values with population normalized i am sure the increment if any will be minimal. Thou, I have not done it myself.

According to the report, in US fossil fuels burned to power cars and trucks, heat homes and businesses, and power factories are responsible for about 98%. CO2 emissions, 24% of methane emissions and 18% of nitrous oxide emissions. Also contributing a significant share of emissions are increased agriculture, deforestation, landfills, industrial production and mining. In 1997, the US discharged roughly one-fifth of the world’s total GHs. In the absence of emissions control policies, by the year 2100, CO2 concentrations are projected to be 30 to 150% higher than today’s levels. 

It is not easy to decipher to what extent this human-induced accumulation of greenhouse gases is responsible for the global warming trend. Other factors—natural climatic variations, changes in the sun’s energy, and the cooling effects of pollutant aerosols—affect our planet’s temperature, and understanding in these areas is incomplete.

Global warming does in fact pose a real danger to mankind. Will human beings be able to find a solution? Or will it lead to cataclysmic events?

http://realtruth.org/articles/443-gwrfa.html

Is global warming a by-product of mankind or is it an evolutionary process of nature:

A study conducted by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) dispels all the false notions and brings the fact into light. The study unearthed that the temperature of this planet has amplified by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the previous 250 years in accordance to 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 50 years. This surge of temperature over a short span of time is rather worrying. The global warming is essentially caused by the emission of GHGs by mankind.

Whether global warming is anthropogenic or not, it is our responsibility to ameliorate this planet and mold it into a better shape for our future generations.

http://www.exami.net/is-global-warming-a-by-product-of-mankind%E2%80%99s-ignorance-or-is-it-an-evolutionary-process-of-nature

Dear Mahmoud, I have not done any kind of data analysis for CO2 emissions and its relationship or not with Earth's temperature. What I can ensure you is that after doing a massive data analysis about temperature last three centuries I am more sceptical about:

• the quality of data used
• the correctness of many averages used
• the legitimacy of quoting inferences based on our data

We have to perform a lot of work until to be reliably able to conclude about Earth's temperature. 

Sorry, I think currently used data are not being used correctly, so we cannot say the one or the other argument about hot or cold.

The Greenhouse effect is natural. Do we have to do with it....

Many of these greenhouse gases are actually life-enabling, for without them, heat would escape back into space and the Earth’s average temperature would be a lot colder.

The Earth’s climate is a solar powered system. Globally, over the course of the year, the Earth system—land surfaces, oceans, and atmosphere—absorbs an average of about 240 watts of solar power per square meter (one watt is one joule of energy every second). The absorbed sunlight drives photosynthesis, fuels evaporation, melts snow and ice, and warms the Earth system.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/?src=features-fromthearchives

The true cause of global warming is our thoughtless attitude to Nature.  In fact, global warming is caused by human activities. The unprecedented increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, together with other human influences on climate over the past century and those anticipated for the future, constitute a real basis for concern.  So everyone should treat Nature with more respect and in all decisions carefully evaluate any effects on Nature. 

Based on the previous answers it is clear by now that GHGs are trapping more heat in the Earth's atmosphere, which is causing average temperatures to rise all over the world. The choices we make now and in the next few decades will determine how much the planet's temperature will rise. While we are not exactly sure how fast or how much the Earth's average temperature will rise, we know that:

• If people keep adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at the current rate, the average temperature around the world could increase by about 4 to 12°F by the year 2100.
• If we make big changes, like using more renewable resources instead of fossil fuels, the increase will be less—about 2 to 5°F.

The major effects that higher temperatures have on people and the environment including Agriculture, Energy, Water Supplies, Health, Plants, Animals, and Ecosystems, Forests and Recreation are explained in the attached link.

http://www.epa.gov/climatestudents/impacts/signs/temperature.html

Rising air temperatures bring heat waves, spread disease, shift plant and animal habitat and cause extreme weather events, from drought to blizzards.. Some solutions to the problem is presented below:

http://www.climatehotmap.org/global-warming-effects/air-temperature.html

How can we tackle climate change denial?- this is on of the major issue of DAVOS 2015 meeting! "Despite overwhelming evidence, from melting polar ice caps to rising sea levels, many people still deny that climate change is happening. Professor Mario Molina, who won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for his work on the ozone layer, says that more must be done to help the public understand climate science, before it’s too late."

https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/01/mario-molina-climate-change-denial/

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/21/davos-2015-claimet-change-makes-comeback

Dear Ljubomir and Kenneth

To add something on the cause and effect phenomena, I found the following linkage:

A blanket around the Earth

Most climate scientists agree the main cause of the current global warming trend is human expansion of the "greenhouse effect"

On Earth, human activities are changing the natural greenhouse. Over the last century the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). This happens because the coal or oil burning process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO2. To a lesser extent, the clearing of land for agriculture, industry, and other human activities have increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. The consequences of changing the natural atmospheric greenhouse are difficult to predict, but certain effects seem likely:

• On average, Earth will become warmer. Some regions may welcome warmer temperatures, but others may not.
• Warmer conditions will probably lead to more evaporation and precipitation overall, but individual regions will vary, some becoming wetter and others dryer.
• A stronger greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and partially melt glaciers and other ice, increasing sea level. Ocean water also will expand if it warms, contributing further to sea level rise.
• Meanwhile, some crops and other plants may respond favorably to increased atmospheric CO2, growing more vigorously and using water more efficiently. At the same time, higher temperatures and shifting climate patterns may change the areas where crops grow best and affect the makeup of natural plant communities.

The role of human activity

In its recently released Fourth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of 1,300 independent scientific experts from countries all over the world under the auspices of the United Nations, concluded there's a more than 90 percent probability that human activities over the past 250 years have warmed our planet.

http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/

Global Warming Effects and Causes: A Top 10 List

Even if we may disagree about the causes, global warming effects are real, global, and measurable. The causes are mainly from us, the human race, and the effects on us will be severe.

Causes: 

Effects:

        6. Rise in sea levels worldwide

        7. More killer storms

        8. Massive crop failures

        9. Widespread extinction of species

       10. Disappearance of coral reefs

See attached link for details.

http://planetsave.com/2009/06/07/global-warming-effects-and-causes-a-top-10-list/

News Update: US Senate refuses to accept humanity's role in global climate change, again

“Climate is changing and climate has always changed and always will,” Inhofe told the Senate. “The hoax is that there are some people who are so arrogant to think they are so powerful they can change climate. Man can’t change climate.”

Robert Brulle:  “A similar resolution failed today. 10 years, more certain science, less political will.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/22/us-senate-man-climate-change-global-warming-hoax

Dear Kenneth, As before you are right about "carbon feet" . Thank you for your full support during this debate. I learned a lot about the global temperature variation and realized more public awareness is needed for its management.

Thank you and all participants on this question.

Best regards,

Mahmoud

Dear Kenneth, Mahmoud and all RG friiends,

Below is a link to the final published version of my article:

Extraction of the global absolute temperature for northern hemisphere using a set of 6190 meteorological stations from 1800 to 2013

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2015.03.009

The link:

http://authors.elsevier.com/a/1Qq2U4sIlkVuu1

is valid for free downloading until 27 May 2015.

I hope to find my work interest and I am waiting for your comments!

Thank you (especially Kenneth) for giving me inspiration!

Dear Demetris. Good job. Thank you for the download link too. It is a very interesting paper.

Dear Kenneth, very interesting ebook, although I was not able to download it as pdf.

As I was reading it, I found that there is not even a consensus on collecting daily temperature data, other stations had 2 records, other 6 records etc.

So, the situation is difficult.

My contribution is

• the definition of indices in order to measure the data quality and seasonal bias
• the presentation of six measures plus their standard deviations for 213 years
• the Extreme Value Theory limitations for upper and lower temperature
• the usage of valid stations for all computations

Of course I don't think that I have invented the wheel...

Thank you for your interest and your advices.

Good to read again you!

2014 may set a new temperature record. So can we please stop claiming global warming has “stopped” - The speed bump only applies to surface temperatures, which only represent about 2 percent of the overall warming of the global climate. Can you make out the tiny purple segment at the bottom of the above figure? That's the only part of the climate for which the warming has 'paused'

http://www.skepticalscience.com/does-global-warming-pause-mean-what-you-think.html

Dear @Mahmoud, dear followers, have you seen this thread about global cooling?

https://www.researchgate.net/post/What_is_global_cooling#view=5533b665f079ed7a648b4615