We are conducting research on dynamics of poverty among small scale farmers, climate change and food security on sustainable agricultural production in Nigeria.
Dear Job Nda Nmadu, unfortunately I do not have a proper model itself, however, Howard Buffet's 40 Chances book does connect these topics quite nicely through 40 different stories (http://www.amazon.com/40-Chances-Finding-Hungry-World/dp/1451687869) - I'd be interested in seeing such a model when finished though!
http://www.amazon.com/40-Chances-Finding-Hungry-World/dp/1451687869
Dear Job Nda Nmadu, I'd suggest you refer to the amazing reference: Thinking in Systems by Donella H. Meadows. Here, you can learn how to construct your model by defining your system components and the interactions, dynamics and links between them. I'd like to see your finalized model as well. Best!
Dearest Job Nda Nmadu, I have two papers by which i have used the Systems Thinking approach to model the the agriculture sector in Africa with various stakeholders mental model, it is wealth looking at them esp: Using System Archetypes to Identify Drivers and Barriers for Sustainable Agriculture in Africa: A Case Study in Ghana. This paper explores the application of system archetypes to serve as effective tools for gaining insights into patterns of behavior of the agricultural system structure. An archetype is a well-defined structure, which exhibits distinct behavior over time, and has well-defined strategies for dealing with the underlying structure of the system being studied.
Sir Job, i suggest you read about the Livelihood vulnerability index developed by World Bank 2006 and adapted by Hahn et al., 2009 and Kuwornu et al., 2013 to ascertain the vulnerability status of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability in Mozambique and Northern part of Ghana respectively or the expected poverty model as employed by Mutsvangwa et al., 2013
kindly gothrough National Rural Livelihood Mission launched by GOI to address the issue of poverty and food security. Similarly NICRA model of WB-ICAR will also provide sufficient input to you.
No model however efficient and fool proof it may be, would work unless there is sincere political will and people participation. Climate change can be stalled if two third area of the land surface of the Earth is brought under forest cover adopting forest restoration. Poverty can be eliminated if water resources of the world are interlinked for judicious use of water by all forms of life on Earth. Food security is no issue worldwide, if it is shared properly instead of dumping excess food in to ocean waters to stabilize economy of a given country. Whereas, we continue to debate the issues through workshops, seminars, conferences, symposia which are of ornamental value without any outcome except on paper and publicity.
There is integrated systems can be solved your problems, as you can try for fish + pigs + crops/fish +duck +garden+ duckweed/rice + fish +duck + pigs. You can come to Vietnam, we had a lot of problem by climate changes and poverty, unsecurity of food.
We have ECO-VILLAGE DEVELOPMENT MODEL which addresses poverty alleviation, climate change and food security.
i also appreciate to see one as suggested but agrees with the comment of Kunuthur Srinivasa Reddy
All the exemples and models suggested are useful to describe tendencies, but still remain theoretical exercises where statiscal probability of fact occurrence became difficuilt to relay
Having visited ICRAF headquarters (Nairobi, Kenya), They have a CGIAR common project of modelling farming systems of the whole Africa and other places and impacts of climate change.
see: http://worldagroforestry.org/research/climate_change/projects/climate-change-agriculture-and-food-security
Thanks, there are some models that can be applied in different ways. For small scale farmers, VAC (integrated systems: fish-duck-rice-duckweed; fish-pig-rice-duckweed; fish-cattle-forest; garden-fish-pigs/chicken. My experience, poor farmers can culture fish-forest and cattle, this is easily for market and low investment, a better adaptation for climate change.