Open Letter to the Media Subject: A Dangerous Earthquake Protection Method That Will Lead to Casualties

Dear Representatives of the Media, Scientists, Colleagues, Public Figures, and Citizens of Israel!

I, Alexander Yagodin, a Master of Engineering Geophysics, with the support of AI, am addressing you regarding an extremely important and alarming issue concerning the safety of millions of our country’s residents. The Geological Institute of Israel is implementing an earthquake warning system, which, according to their claims, is supposed to save lives. However, in reality, the proposed method not only fails to provide adequate protection but will also lead to significant human casualties within a radius of 10–50 km from the earthquake’s epicenter.

According to official data, the warning system they plan to use provides an alert 10–30 seconds before the impact. However, under real conditions, the countdown begins at the start of the earthquake, and within a 10–20 km radius of the epicenter, the warning lead time is practically nonexistent. In remote areas (200–250 km away), the lead time is about one minute. This is not enough for evacuating children from schools, allowing residents to leave buildings, or safely stopping transportation flows. Such a system creates a false sense of security and may only exacerbate the consequences by causing chaos and panic.

A recent earthquake in Kazakhstan demonstrated the ineffectiveness of such a system: the earthquake alarm sounded 3–5 minutes after the tremors had already begun.

In Israel, a method for short-term and operational earthquake forecasting has been successfully developed and has passed international evaluations. This method provides an accurate forecast of the location, start and end times of tremors, and their magnitude, with an advance warning of hours to dozens of hours.

History of the Method’s Recognition: • 2004: The method, developed in the Haifa laboratory, successfully passed a scientific evaluation by a doctor from the Geological Institute upon request from the Israeli Minister of Science and Technology. • 2005: A Knesset committee approved the author’s presentation with the support of Professor M. Nudelman. • 2006: The former president of IASPEI and the chairman of the Russian Expert Council (RES) gave a positive conclusion on the Genesis theory and short-term earthquake forecasting. • 2012: Successful trials of short-term earthquake forecasting: 20 forecasts were made for earthquakes of magnitude 6 and above, with no false predictions. The evaluation was conducted under the control of the RES. • 2016: The Director of Science at the Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences confirmed the RES’s conclusions. • 2017: The Knesset committee and the Chief Scientist of the Israeli Ministry of Defense accepted the author's report without objections. • 2019: The Israeli Earthquake Preparedness Committee accepted A. Yagodin’s report without objections.

This type of forecasting would allow: • The evacuation of people from hazardous areas. • Determination of the probability of aftershocks or their absence. • The shutdown of gas and electrical networks, ensuring water supply to firefighters. • Preparation of emergency services.

However, the leadership of the Geological Institute of Israel ignores this data and refuses to discuss the possibility of an alternative approach. They provide no arguments against it—they simply remain silent. State Comptroller Amir Yahav claimed that Yagodin’s method was not accepted in Russia, but he relied on false information. The Russian Academy of Sciences stated that no one had given him such data, as according to regulations, the author would have to be informed beforehand. False conclusions constitute a violation of the law.

Ignoring a more effective life-saving method is criminal negligence that could lead to a tragedy. We are already experiencing one severe catastrophe, but in the case of an earthquake like the one in Turkey and Syria (2023, 58,000 dead), the consequences could be devastating.

I am attaching copies of documents with positive conclusions from leading experts and demanding:

I also intend to file an official lawsuit to prevent the implementation of an ineffective system. I urge everyone who cares about the safety of citizens to support this initiative.

Sincerely, Alexander Yagodin [email protected]