I think the Butterfly effect can answer us about this question:
"The butterfly effect presents an obvious challenge to prediction, since initial conditions for a system such as the weather can never be known to complete accuracy. This problem motivated the development of ensemble forecasting, in which a number of forecasts are made from perturbed initial conditions. " (Wiki ).
Woods, Austin (2005). Medium-range weather prediction: The European approach; The story of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. New York: Springer. p. 118. ISBN 978-0387269283.
Generally, insects modify calling and mating behavior in anticipation of storms.also, immigration /migration can be useful...
this link can be useful.
Bibliographic information: Pellegrino AC et al. Weather Forecasting by Insects: Modified Sexual Behaviour in Response to Atmospheric Pressure Changes. PLoS ONE 8 (10): e75004; doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0075004
Climate change is quite a slow process. I think it is uncomfortable and difficult to recognize the very fine behavioural changes which could forecast these modifications. It seems to me that for catastrophe forecasting there are better physical possibilities. I do not know how many indicator species would be necessary and whether their forecasting value would be significant?
I think relating insect behavior to earthquake /volcanic activity might have some correlation but certainly it cannot be related to climate change as the time scaled and reaction times are tooooo different.
The effect of climate changes and earth activities affect in a way or an other the behavior of insects starting from instant reaction way into gene level and characters adaptation. I think same as Fluvio , this topic worth to work on it. We are facing quick climate changes those years.
I think that working on climate changes will be more easy if preliminary tests will carry on in laboratory condition. Following the behavior of social insects that we see every day and we meet in our regular life will be interesting to test against different temperatures. I hope that ideas about similar work will be discussed because it can be useful one day in countries that lives many earth activities and face climatic changes frequently. Insect are about 90% of the animal kingdom on earth.
I think there is a good correlation between climate change and range expansion of insects (pests and non pests). So the answer to your question is yes, at least with regards to insect behavior and climate change. Find below an interesting article
I can speak about Heteroptera in relation to climate change in the long term: they are sometimes passively transported in places distant from where the climate is more favorable, but their survival depends on two factors. First, the presence of host plants compatible, secondly because of the presence of a favorable climate. If these insects "aliens" resist for several years, this means that the climate is not worsened and, basically, it should not get worse for a reasonable period of time.
For natural expansion of originally mediterranean fauna the climate is very important. The presence of mediterranean species of Heteroptera in the Italian Alps was demonstrated since 1890. The maintenance, today, is due to favorable climatic conditions of the ipsothermic period after the last glaciation. These species inhabit today the sunniest vineyards and olive groves where there are also xerothermophilous plants such as Quercus pubescens, Erica arborea and Cistus salvifolius
During the 1970s and 80, we monitored moths in Bhimtal in the Kumaon Himalaya, India. When the Sphingidae were identified during the late 1980s, it turned out that roughly half the 77 recorded species were previously known from the eastern Himalaya but not the western Himalaya, based on data obtained previous to 1937 (Bell & Scott, Fauna of British India Moths Vol 5 Sphingidae). I brought this matter up at a talk to the Univ. Entomological Society in Oxford in 1991 and was referred to the newly formed Climate Change Unit. They at the time only had some data for the northward extension of the Corn Borer Moth in Western Europe and some records of a continental bumble bee invading the southern districts of England.
In a subsequent paper, (The Hawkmoths of Kumaon, N. India: a probable case of faunal drift; Zoological Survey of India Occasional paper 156; 1994) I coined the term 'faunal drift' to refer to the phenomenon and suggested that it was due to the increase in soil humidity in winter that those typically tropical hawkmoths, normally restricted to regions of high humidity, could colonize the dry western Himalaya, since their larval host plants had been present all along, and neither the temperature nor the rainfall had changed noticeably. I predicted that traditional cropping patterns would have to change.
Today, 20 years later, these predictions have been borne out; tropical fruit is grown instead of stone fruit; the pulses that the valley was famous for have stopped growing here; wild cherry (Prunus cerasoides) is almost extinct from this elevation and the whole valley is much greener than it used to be during winters in the 1970s and earlier.
In 1992, I found one of the 'invasive' hawkmoths, Marumba cristata, in Shimla, which is even further west than the 1937 monitoring station in Mussoorie.
Besides these, there has been a slow influx of typically eastern Himalayan butterflies to the western Himalaya, which have been documented in various notes.
I think the Butterfly effect can answer us about this question:
"The butterfly effect presents an obvious challenge to prediction, since initial conditions for a system such as the weather can never be known to complete accuracy. This problem motivated the development of ensemble forecasting, in which a number of forecasts are made from perturbed initial conditions. " (Wiki ).
Woods, Austin (2005). Medium-range weather prediction: The European approach; The story of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. New York: Springer. p. 118. ISBN 978-0387269283.