Could you please help me with finding references regarding combination of probabilistic risk assessment studies with air pollution modelling?
For instance, probabilistic safety assessment conducted for ammonia pipeline combined with the results of dispersion modelling can be used to assess annual costs of losses caused by accident. I met such works regarding groundwater pollution (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304389413008005), however not so much regarding air pollution, or maybe I am wrong?
Thank you in advance.
Dear Ivan,
Have a look at the literature concerning the SCIPUFF model.
Also I send you a published paper (CFD-RANS & Gamma distribution, chapter 2.2).
Hope that helps,
G.
Dear George, thank you for this paper. My question concerned a bit different subject, but anyway your suggestions are useful.
In my question I concerned the following: at many industrial facilities (such as nuclear power plants, chemical plants, etc) they often perform assessment of probabilities of accidents (fire, leakage of chemicals, etc). Those probabilities could be linked with the results of dispersion models to assess risks for human health and environment. These results in turn could be used to estimate economic losses. The example reference that I gave above is this kind of study of linkage between probabilistic risk assessment and grountwater modelling. What I am interested is similar studies related to air pollution.
Here is the one reference of this kind (thanks to Dr. Spyros Andronopoulos who informed me about it): Papazoglou I.A. , Aneziris O., Bonanos G. and Christou M., 1996. SOCRATES: a computerized toolkit for the quantification of the risk from accidental releases of toxic and/or flammable substances // Int. J. Environment and Polution, Vol. 6, Nos 4-6, 1996
dear Ivan i send you one of my paper about risk management. i think that you can find something of interesting
Ok Ivan I though something different (exposure). This is also an interesting subject. I will have a look on the papers.
results of dispersion models in environmental impact assessments are usually compared with IDLH and ERPG (1, 2, 3) values for grading of risk in accidental release of air pollutants, or with occupational exposure limits
Dear Ivan, our paper on modeling secondhand smoke concentrations indoors may be relevant. It is Repace JL, Jinot J, Bayard S, Emmons K, and Hammond SK. Air nicotine and saliva cotinine as indicators of passive smoking exposure and risk. Risk Analysis 18: 71-83 (1998). If your application is for outdoor air pollution, you can use the same methodology. I hope this is helpful.
Dear Ivan,
As Manfred correctly told you, above all for major risk installation a fully quantitative disk assessment is required. This means the probability assessment and the quantification of the consequences. These last are usually given in terms of distance from the source at which treshold limits (concentrations, energy and/or overpressures are reached) simulated with more or less detailed models (from aloha, to effects, to phast, film arriving to the CFD already cited in this discussion)
Rarely these infos are crossed with the infos on territorial occupancy to foresee the possibile impacts.
I could suggest to address these aspects two tools: the more known are the probit functions that give you the probability of having a damage at a given distance from the release; a finer tool is the Aripar developped at the jrc with the Bologna università that allow the evaluation of the territorial risk taking intorno account both the occupancies and the presence of multiple risk sources.
I hope this fan help. If needed i fan help with some references.
Dear Micaela, thank you very much for your answer. I think that the reference to Airpar could be very helpful for me. Indeed what I have asked for could be thought as standard procedure. However after some days of search I was not able to find really full studies of such kind (related to air pollution) brought to the level of cost-benefit analysis.
Dear Micaela,
Please send the reference of the Aripar developed at the jrc with the Bologna università.
Thank you, Manfred
Dear Micaela, I have found and read some references regarding ARIPAR. However I could not find the information how can I get it: is this program freely available? Can I ask you to kindly assist me with this information. Thank you in advance, Ivan
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