Hi Victor, don't place any trust on apocaliptic predictions. No one has the capabitilty of predicting specfic events one month in advance. The best we can do is calculate probabilities. Please use this as an opportunity to prove thins things wrong. I bet you that we will reach October and life will continue as usual.
thank you for your explanation. yes, a senior astronomer in my country also thinks that solar storm and solar flares are normal thing. all best wishes, Victor
The statistics of flare intensities indicate that they represent a Self Organized system reaching Critical state (like the Sand pile in "How Nature Works" by P. Bak); this being said it appears that the long term prediction of an Energy Release of Given Magnitude is not feasible as self organized criticality includes all scales (in Energy, Power etc).
Dear Dr. Alexander Hillaris, thank you very much for your answer. Btw, do yo think that the solar 11 year cycle does not point toward a peak at september 2013? If you would like to add an answer I would greatly appreciate. Thanks
Hello, you are right to expect an increase in flaring activity around the solar cycle peak. However, this might manifest itself as a long series of X, M, C flares as opposed to an extreme flare. Now, the multiple scale nature of the flare statistics makes the prediction of the size of the flare not possible. A famous example are the extreme events of 2005 where very strong flares appeared at the decline phase of the cycle although, the flares about the maximum released, cumulaively, more energy.
Alexander
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