It seems at present that Russians are not so much frightened about their diminishing economic and social indicators for the aim of war. Is, in Your opinion, this assumption true or wrong?
I would love to hear from researchers in Russia on this one. I am married to a Russian and have spent a total of about 8 weeks there over 6 trips in the last 3 years, and before that 4 trips to Ukraine, 2 east and 2 west. The anti-Russian sentiment in the west was evidenced by rude treatment from store clerks which my guide told me was because I was speaking Russian. I switched to English with a Texas drawl and was treated much better. She explained that Stalin confiscated the crops and they had to starve or eat each other, and they remember that just like Jews remember the holocaust.
As for Russia, everyone was very friendly there. There was some discussion about the cold war. Their government had convinced them the U.S. might attack. But they wanted to be friends with Americans. Today Russia reminds me of the USA in the 1950s as to how people dress and act and the living conditions (I was born in 1950). While Russians want to be friendly and do business, they still have some of the mindset that everything is community property, and a vacant flat will be scavenged. My wife (fiance at the time) was living in a Kruschev era 5-story apartment building, solid as a rock, with gardens on all sides tended by some of the occupants. Entry ways were not in good shape, but everyone had a very solid door, and inside each flat was different. Some were refurbished to a high standard.
Russians were very proud of the "bloodless" annexation of Crimea, and this tempted them to think they'd get eastern Ukraine also. At least, that is what my wife and all her friends thought, including both the ones here and the ones still in Russia. They are distraught by the fighting now in Ukraine, but they are completely suckered in by the Russian news media version of events. They will not believe any western media. While I distrust all media myself, it is patently obvious from the changing narratives that the Russian media is a tool of a tyrannical state that has killed so many reporters that no one dares say anything except what Putin wants.
Russians are upset by things like the tax increases just announced to make up for lost revenue from banks. But they are not entirely blaming Putin. For them to blame Putin they would have to accept the western media version. Putin is their leader and he says the west is lying.
So I am concluding that Russians are opposed to war, and prefer economic success, but they do not see a clear choice and will not relate to a question that poses that they are conducting war for developmental purposes. That might be Putin's aim (and it's clear what his answer is), but he is not telling the Russian people that. To them the choice is to let their fellow Russians in east Ukraine be slaughtered by a ruthless government backed by greedy western enemies of Russia, or to sacrifice some economic development to stand up for their fellow Russians.
So it is the wrong question. We should be asking about how to communicate what Putin is really doing to ordinary Russian citizens.
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