If You make all three possible scenarios - bad, average and good - what is then a prediction? How can You predict everything possible? In my understanding prediction has to be much narrower and focused on what You really predict.
In my opinion, it comes from the traditional methodologies from "hard" science. Modelling, to simplify social reality. Current theories of complexity, or not-so-new Gibbons' mode 2 of knowledge production, can explain the need of a more flexible and wide way of explaining reality. Another consequence of that new way of explaining social reality is those "diffuse logics", that goes to contruct future scenarios with mixed methods, even only with qualitative methods, called narrative scenarios.
Developing several scenarios for the future - good, bad, average - doesn't mean that you can't go beyond that step and actually try to estimate the differential likelihoods of those scenarios coming through. This way you get a range of possible futures and an attached set of probabilities for those scenarios to come through.
Developing a range of scenarios prevents focalism and confirmation bias, whereas attaching differential probabilities to them allows you to develop expectations and plans of actions contingent on those probabilities.
Article Beware of contingency
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