Dear Darko, look at the history of salt. Monopolies, wars (e.g. Venice fought and won a war with Genoa over salt) and now: can you imagine fighting for salt? Innovations can bring us unusual answers to the problems we consider insoluble.    

Dear Dr. Darko,

Surely the competition for fossil fuels can unfortunately become cause of geopolitical disagreements in (near) future.

However, even being the area of energy, I believe that the absence of water still will be a cause of greater dispute. Maybe I'm tendentious in this matter, because of the "dry season" that southeastern of Brazil has confronted and also about the question posed at RG by Dr.Palani Shanmugasundaram: 

"Are seawater to drinking water projects Functioning in your country / state successfully?"

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Are_seawater_to_drinking_water_projects_functioning_in_your_country_state_successfully

We expect conscious consumption, developing new sources of energy and others ways of .sustainability (...) that can meet the needs and this critique hypothesis comes not happening.

In summary, all these natural resources that make a country occupy important political and economic position in a globalized world, can have their "blessing" reversed.

This discussion is endless.

Best Regards,

Vanessa

Dear Darko,

What an interesting question!

During the 90s this debate took place in Argentina, regarding both Energy Reserves and Water Reserves. Patagonia is a vast region, with lots of lakes and glaciers on the West and semi desert lands on the central and eastern part. The same happens on the Northeastern Region, with the Parana and Uruguay River. Patagonia is also oil and gas rich.

Brazil is Water rich and recently discovered oil reserves makes it Energy rich too.

Water and Energy reserves are a BLESSING, without any doubt, what is a CURSE is how governments or societies manage these resources. The institutional environment is a key element to understand what societies do with their resources.

Venezuela holds the largest oil and gas proven reserves (http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=ve) and the people struggle to survive with an insufficient supply of milk, flour, sugar, chicken, cheese, beef and even toilette paper! (http://www.infobae.com/2014/02/09/1542617-los-10-productos-que-mas-escasean-venezuela).

On the other hand Israel holds almost no natural resources and achieves very important indicators in the field of technological innovation, science, social welfare and education.  The same stands for Singapore and Ireland.

I do not see any threat to Energy reserves in USA, CANADA, RUSSIA, VENEZUELA or Argentina (2nd largest shale oil & gas reserves).

I do see many conflicts in regions where the "institutional environment" is weak, with outstanding political instability, and with unsatisfied consumption and political demands by their citizens. It happens that some of these countries are energy rich, but some others are not.

If a country has Energy and Water reserves, and an educated and people conscious ruling class, with the rule of law, independence of Powers, Enforcement and accountability; this country should fear no threat to its resources.

Knowledge is the fifth factor of production, apart from Land, Labour, Capital and Entrepreneur. To organize a society you need Institutions, and ultimately these are a "form of knowledge", just as technology or science. Organization and Management are knowledge too. So in the end, "competitive advantages" lie in the property and use of knowledge. If Knowledge is included in the "Theory of Comparative Advantages", you'll find a clear explanation of why some societies succeed and others fail.

I hope this helps to answer your question.

Best regards,

PS: "Culture Matters. How values shape human progress" Edited by Lawrence Harrison and Samuel Huntington, is a very interesting book that explains human progress from an institutional stand point.

Dear colleagues,

Thank you for joining discussion and your time and willingness to help me in my research.  These information are very useful. In principle,I agree with your excellent answer and in my opinion, Geopolitics, Security and Price are main factors which mark  the gas and oil industry today.

As a little reminder, 1973-74 events (jump in oil prices which led the world into a period of relatively long economic recession) resulted in assessments of limits of growth in correlation with limited oil and gas resources, as well as water and available "living" area.

Due to above stated, in particular available natural resources limits could undoubtedly affect present globalized economy in a way that force of inertia may lead to increasing energy consumption which could result in new geopolitical conflicts over energy...

Dear Darko,

Your question triggered a very interesting discussion. Some 20 years ago I wrote a paper regarding the historical development of the USA and found that there were some common elements present when their independence was declared. These elements were Land, Food, Water, Energy, a leading class with a very clear project and a federal state that integrated the different communities and people with clear institutions and  policies.

I totally agree with you about the 73-74 oil crisis and recession. The difference now is that there are other sources of Energy. In those days there was Hydroelectric Power and Nuclear Power. HP requires certain geographical conditions and NP specific scientific capacity. Both require big investments and a long maturing periods. Coal was an option, but produced severe environmental damages.

Today there are Biofuels, Biomass, Solar Energy, so there are other options available. Still, Oil & Gas remain the most relevant and convenient sources of Power.

Habitat, Food, Energy and Water will determine the future international conflicts, but always KNOWLEDGE wraps them all. If you have the information and the know-how, you can anticipate and elaborate a strategy.

Look at China's strategy: buying and leasing lands in Africa and in South America to produce crops for food and energy. You don't need to relocate population, you just need to have "property rights" over certain lands and be able to enforce them.

China is wisely integrating backwards its economy, with the source of raw materials and inputs, and perhaps in the future will integrate forward to be able to market its manufactured goods in developing nations. It has already bought important real state in Europe.

Yours was a very good question that made us all think about these issues and started an interesting debate.

Rgds.,

Henry Kissinger:

"If you control the oil, you control entire nations. If you control the food, you control the people. If you control the money, your control the entire world."

In my opinion, in the future, the most important will be fresh water and sharp sand.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker speaking on Thursday evening, (after a summit of EU) of the need for the EU to conclude a controversial free trade agreement with the United States (TTIP),  that privatization of water out of the question.

Dear Darko Pavlović,

Today, countries are fighting for Gas and Oil -- more of geopolitical issue along with demand and supply.

Tomorrow, time of drinking water -- basic of life, more important than oil --- countries shall be fighting for drinking water, may be worse than fighting for gas and oil.

Prioritize! Save! Maintain! --- water for sustainable future!

There has been a terrible scenario going on for many years. The hunt for natural energy sources has led to many wars including the wars going on these days. Those, who control the fossil fuels in many parts of the world, act in an unwise manner: what has been stored for millions of years, is to be consumed within two centuries leaving nothing to the coming generations. This case has similarity to two crazy behaviors : 1) What will we say about a man who lights a cigarette using a paper currency or banknote ? 2) Assuming that a man worked hard for 20 years saving money & then went to a gambling table to lose them within 2 hours, what will we say about him?Where are the "smart" politicians (who are doing next to nothing) to work on rendering vast fresh drinking water resources before there is crisis & before wars are waged for the control of water reserves ? 

Thank you to put this issue for discussion. I guess the coming years; there may be water poverty for many countries of the world in addition to the competition on fuel sources. Most of industries country planned for several years for this era but no planning in developing countries.

Water and energy sources have a major impact on the economy and politics, not only nationally, but also globally.They are essential for human prosperity and sustainable social and economic development. Their important role into achieving progress in each category of development is widely recognized as well as their strategic influence in geopolitics. 

Exactly, I agree with you, that water and energy sources have a major impact on the economy and politics and they are essential for human prosperity and sustainable social and economic development.

Dear Darco

I understand and I agree with your vision. Certainly that energy remains a key geopolitical. But it seems that in the future it is the water that is the source of life is at the heart of disagreements between the country and therefore the trump card of a new geopolitical strategy. Birth of the Nile problems such outbreaks and Jourdan River.

Regards

Climate Benefits of a Natural Gas Bridge 'Unlikely to be Significant' Simon Evans

Natural gas can only be a worthwhile bridge to a low carbon future if a series of tough conditions are met, according to a working paper from the influential New Climate Economy initiative.

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/natural-gas-climate-benefits-unlikely-to-be-significant-23972

Today, modern geopolitical issues are related to oil and gas. Tomorrow it may relates to water.

Dear Subhash,

You gave an excellent remark - I agree with you

Looking at energy as a whole, we can say that there are three basic energy principles. Three basic principles of energy: Energy can not be created, destroyed or recycled; Energy encourages economic development and energy transition creates cultural transition; Efforts to gain control of the energy causes violent conflicts - the war conflicts.

Yes, Dear Darko,

Efforts to gain control of the energy causes violent conflicts between countries as they are worried about future.

Dear Darko,

I fully agree with most of that in the future, 'drinking water' is the most coveted element of humanity.

Today, fossil fuels still promote major geopolitical disputes. But, no water, no one survives. Therefore ...

Best Regards,

Andréa

Dear Colleagues,

Good Day,

IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICS :

• Geopolitics has the capacity to exert sudden and disruptive pressure on the operations and security of energy assets across the world, meaning that no country or company is truly exempt from the effect of geopolitical change. • Oil and gas companies frequently engage with national and local governments, local populations, subnational groups and national organizations, and consequently they are deeply affected by political change.

• Geopolitics has contributed price fall in many instances and this has brought about the Laying off of workers in the Oil and Gas industry.

• Controls the economy of oil producing countries either positively or negatively; more revenue when prices are high and less revenue when prices fall

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/10/the-wars-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa-are-not-just-about-oil-theyre-also-about-gas.html

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/04/04/299046959/u-s-taps-new-energy-sources-and-potential-geopolitical-clout

 Water, gas, oil. Antarctica is immensely rich in all these resources and, reportedly, technological development will soon make economically viable its exploitation. It is likely that here we have the first serious geopolitical problem in the near future. 

The Voice of Gas: “Can you hear me now?”

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/the-voice-of-gas-can-you-hear-me-now-24834

"The voice of natural gas may be a bit soft, but by sending out the right messages it can earn the social license to operate and even help in efforts to mitigate climate change."

Thousands have lived without love, not one without water.

--- W. H. Auden

 Dear Mario,

My personal advice is --- don't loose motivation.

Thanks! 

Geopolitics Back in Full Focus for Leslie Palti-Guzman

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/leslie-palti-guzman-rapidan-group-24856

"The geopolitics of energy can remain very superficial if you don't understand the basics of the market..."

The tension between North Korea and South Korea shows more than Gas, Oil, and Water. Unfortunate!

World future is most concerned with these three issues;

 How to replace the existing energy reserves, which are about to be depleted? How to preserve resources and flows of clean water for future generations? How to preserve the human environment and prevent cataclysmic climate changes?

These questions can help us distinguish between the two main contradictions of modern energy paradigm;The problem of energy depletion (reduction of future production of geostrategic resources) Constraints arising from the need to preserve the environment

Oil discoveries provide resources to some low-income countries on a scale that dwarfs aid. Yet their effects have often been adverse. Oil has been associated with economic stagnation and the destruction of other export activities.1 At the political level, it is associated with violent conflict.2 Why has oil been so damaging and what can be done about it?

See paper for details.

http://www.swisspeace.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/Media/Publications/Conference_Paper_2003.pdf

Yes, Dear Darko, you are right.

Dear Mario,

You are very right. In future, water may be more important and may become geopolitical issue.

"More important than the deficit, more important then healthcare—more important than anything—we have got to do something about our energy strategy. Because if we permit the climate to continue to warm at an unsustainable rate, and if we keep on doing what we're doing until we're out of oil and we haven't made the transition, then it's inconceivable to me that our children and grandchildren will be able to maintain the American way of life and that the world won't be much fuller of resource-based wars of all kinds."

 Bill Clinton

There is wide spread agreement that humanity should start securing and improving its water resources in order to adequately deal with the other environmental problems that may arise.

http://www.freedrinkingwater.com/water_quality/quality1/1-enough-water-for-the-future.htm

Drinking water is more essential than gas and oil. So, more important for .....!

Russia and Iran,  together control around 45% of the global natural gas reserves and 25% of yearly global production...

@ Darko.Exactly right. Russia and Iran have the largest proven reserves

Saudi Arabia Targets Russia in Battle for European Oil Market

http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/141109/Saudi_Arabia_Targets_Russia_in_Battle_for_European_Oil_Market

"...From global majors such as Shell and Total to more modest Polish energy firms, oil refiners in Europe are cutting their longstanding use of Russian crude in favour of Saudi grades as the world's top exporters fight for market share. Russia has for years been muscling in on Asian markets where Saudi Arabia was once the unchallenged dominant supplier. But now Riyadh is retaliating in Moscow's backyard of Europe with aggressive price discounting..."

Gas Consumption in EU To Increase by 7% in 2015, Says EU Association

Worse weather conditions and national circumstances are likely to push gas demand across the European Union up by 7% in 2015 with respect to last year, Eurogas wrote on Friday.‘Gas demand across the European Union is expected to increase by 7% in 2015 compared with 2014, according to the latest forecast from Eurogas. The first half of 2015 saw a significant increase of approximately 9% in demand, compared with the same period in 2014’ the association representing the European gas wholesale, retail, and distribution sector. Eurogas explained that the drop in hydropower production in Germany and Italy, along with an increase in gas demand for power generation in France and Austria, more than offset the competition from coal. ‘The low price of coal has continued to have a considerable impact on gas demand’ reads the note. 

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/gas-consumption-in-eu-to-increase-by-7-in-2015-says-eu-association-26011

Gas is a fossil fuel whose role is strongly emphasised in future efforts towards low-carbon economy. By the recent Paris Agreement of the United Nations, 195 countries participants of the climate negotiations in Paris accepted limiting global warming „to significantly below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, with the aim to set the limit to 1.5°C”. This agreement will be of great significance for the energy sector and the already set ambitious goals for drastic reduction of CO2 emissions.

Quite Darko

I agree with most of the views that we today in the gas and oil war,  and tomorrow in the water war.

If we maintain the quality of water in different aquatic ecosystems, hence we can guarantee the lives of the next generations. We must preserve water and its resources.

For me happiness means "Self contentedness".

Totally agree with you @ Fikrat. The water that's life and come a day when the states will fight to survive