This it is NOT a particular cold winter for the world nor is the highly published cold in the the US actual. For January NOAA writes: "

• For January, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 32.7°F, 2.6°F above the 20th century average, ranking in the warmest third of the 125-year period of record.
• Parts of the southeast, mid-Atlantic, High Plains and western U.S. were warmer than average. California ranked 11th warmest in January and was the only state to rank much-above-average for the month. No state ranked below average for the month.
• Below-average temperatures were confined to parts of Michigan, New York and Colorado. A significant cold air outbreak across the High Plains and Great Lakes at the end of January resulted in many record daily cold temperatures across the region. " ..."
• The Alaska January temperature was 7.4°F, 5.2°F above the long-term average. This ranked in the warmest third of the 95-year period of record for the state. Cold temperatures during mid-January were flanked by warmer temperatures at the beginning and the end of the month." https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201901"

Across the world NOAA writes for December: "The global land and ocean surface temperature for December 2018 was the second highest since global records began in 1880 at 0.86°C (1.55°F) above the 20th century average. This value trails behind the record year 2015 by 0.27°C (0.49°F)." https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201812

Well,

Cyclic Equilibrium of Closed Global system;

inlet = outlet

Regards

Soon so will everywhere. Need read:

Melting ice sheets may cause ‘climate chaos’ according to new modelling

https://www.mcgill.ca/science/channels/news/melting-ice-sheets-may-cause-climate-chaos-according-new-modelling-294392

Climate is now weather

Climate is the average weather over a period of 30 years

Therefore the weather for one single winter has no meaning for climate

Rightly said, weather and climate are two different things. But both are closely interleated. I think, onece climate change is established in a particular geographic region, we expect a trend change in weather. No doubt, ups and downs are characteristics of weather. We can ignore it, if it is on small scale and limited to a particular region for a very short period of time. This time the clod weather spill was for a long period of time, covering almost entire globe. This is why I shared this question.

Nicely discussed by RG colleagues

Climate change causes weather changes

Average temperatures in the Arctic will increase by the end of this century. Already now, according to experts, it is returning to the interglacial period and is experiencing the strongest warming in 115,000 years.

On Novaya Zemlya(Russia), a state of emergency was introduced due to the invasion of polar bears, but the authorities forbid to shoot polar bears.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-47186933

Dear followers of this question

This really is a subject that is studied by numerous experts called climatologists

So I urge you to scan the most comprehensive compilation of the knowledge available

You will learn there that regional climate change is very difficult to assess and that year-to-year variability is by definition not part of climatology because exactly for that reason climate is defined: to average out those short-term fluctuations/variation

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

you can start with the summary for policy makers

and then the technical summary

then there is the full report discussing whether regional climate change can be seen and what uncertainties there are in such evaluations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1tIhTxE1F4

Of course, one can doubt, but nature itself gives an answer. For the first time in the last 35 years, bear bears are attacking human settlements in search of food. Because of the melting of ice in ordinary places, they do not find food.

Climate is average weather, but weather is highly variable. Therefore, the standard deviation of climate is large. See: https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/variability/

Gravity of the ocean is is changing

This it is NOT a particular cold winter for the world nor is the highly published cold in the the US actual. For January NOAA writes: "

• For January, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 32.7°F, 2.6°F above the 20th century average, ranking in the warmest third of the 125-year period of record.
• Parts of the southeast, mid-Atlantic, High Plains and western U.S. were warmer than average. California ranked 11th warmest in January and was the only state to rank much-above-average for the month. No state ranked below average for the month.
• Below-average temperatures were confined to parts of Michigan, New York and Colorado. A significant cold air outbreak across the High Plains and Great Lakes at the end of January resulted in many record daily cold temperatures across the region. " ..."
• The Alaska January temperature was 7.4°F, 5.2°F above the long-term average. This ranked in the warmest third of the 95-year period of record for the state. Cold temperatures during mid-January were flanked by warmer temperatures at the beginning and the end of the month." https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201901"

Across the world NOAA writes for December: "The global land and ocean surface temperature for December 2018 was the second highest since global records began in 1880 at 0.86°C (1.55°F) above the 20th century average. This value trails behind the record year 2015 by 0.27°C (0.49°F)." https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201812

I wonder how much wider the separation between the rising CO2 and not-rising average global temperature will need to get for some people to recognize that CO2 has little, if anything, to do with climate.

Dan Pangburn This would require the global temperature to stop rising in correlation with the CO2 concentration.

Unlike that is has done continuously the last ½ century.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global-temp-and-co2-1880-2009.gif

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/ytd/12/1880-2018?trend=true&trend_base=10&firsttrendyear=1968&lasttrendyear=2018

HRA – Put 5 year smoothing on the HadCRUT4 data and extend it through 2017 and it looks like this:

Indeed, very nice and informative discussion from honorable researchers. No doubt, the question was weak conceptually. But the replies from various researchers was very informative. I am sure, this question and answer session will be will useful for our young researchers.

I herein appreciate your time, effort and knowledge on the subject.

Thank you all

M. Nafees

Dan Pangburn. So there is a temperature increase in your unsourced figures. Now just go all in and put 10 years smooting on - as the El Nino needs more than 5 years to be smooted out - and you get a steady increase since 1975 parallel to CO2 just like all the real scientist see.

HRA - Eleven year smoothing of the measured HadCRUT4 data removes some more variation. The 98.3% match to measured is to unsmoothed data. Details of generation of graphs like this, plus a lot more are at http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com

Multiple compelling evidence finds that little, if any, GW can be attributed to CO2. The human contribution to warming was from increased water vapor which is self-limiting, nearly all from increased irrigation which is limited. The issue to be delt with is the increased risk of precipitation related flooding.

1 climate change has not the same meaning as global warming.

2 climate is average weather over a long period (at least 30 years)

3 weather is happening not every year the same. We have variability.

4 some people talk of processes of global cooling, which might happen parallel to global warming. The net change is surely of most interest.

Dan Pangburn Still your figure show continuous temperature increase since the 1970'es just as CO2 concentration rise continuously in the atmosphere. I don't get how that is evidence for "the separation between the rising CO2 and not-rising average global temperature". Correlation is not causation - but obviously it support the physical-mechanistic based theory that predicts warming about in the amount as we see on average over the latest 4-5 decades.

Claiming the opposite of one's own data seems a bit weak argument and requires a better explanation.

Relationships between (among) - carbon dioxide and climate change (many other variables) is difficult to define with full precision. There exists a number of factors, perceptions and ideologies behind the aim of projects conducted worldwide that come to the conclusion that climate is changing. If we consider the average of those conclusions we will find that we cannot state with high confidence that the recently experienced winter is a cause or an effect of climate change.

Siman Sekhri

This is an OPINION

Where are the references

Do you know the IPCC report full of evidence

What are your credentials to make such a statement

And so on

ResearchGate is a science forum and climatology is an area of applied science

Respected Harry ten Brink,

You need references for the question or for the comments given over here?

Respected sir,

Harry ten Brink

Sir i believe that there exists some correlation between temperature drops and climate change and many reports including IPCC goes in this direction.

All I wanted to convey is the fact that can we state it with high confidence that the experienced (2018) winter was, in fact, a result of climate change, can it not be a partial impact of climate change.

Simran Sekhri

No, with high confidence one can state that the weather during one winter in a region has nothing to do with climate (change). Only when the average of winters in a period of tens of years differs from the average of an earlier period of tens of years chances are high that this is "climate change" on a local scale.

We had a short but very cold spell (Canada), but otherwise the winter was mild by comparison. The cold spell (Arctic Vortex) was explained by experts: hot air blows all the way to the North Pole which in turn, directs the local cold air southwards. This is the third winter that is happening, but not previously. This is climate change indeed.

climate variability