Will the Corona virus become a watershed point in the future of international relations such as September 11, 2001, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the end of World War II. ?
Without doubt. Covid19 is a black swan event that reorders the world on the scale of the Great Depression of 1929. The second American century continues as the US military continues to deploy worldwide, despite US withdrawals. The big engine for global economic recovery remain the US economy, 25% of the world economy. Whether Trump wins re-election or Biden becomes President, US-China and UK-China relations will be irreparably changed. A new order will emerge that will likely be far less favorable to China, which will turn more aggressive militarily, accelerate its military buildup, unsettle its neighbors and become more repressive inwards as it is now starting to do in Hong Kong. This will happen anyway, but coronavirus accelerated this trend dramatically. China's plan to become a prosperous economy by 2050 has been set back decades I think. The wild card is the pace of recovery of the European Union, second biggest world economy after America and chock-full of NATO countries. Japan, Africa and the Middle-East stay the same. Latin America may come out weaker. The biggest winner is technology I think. The nationalist-racist populism of the 2010s that brought into power many strongmen leaders may give way to something else entirely different. The biggest questions over the world order remain over whether people's faith in established institutions are still there, given how the institutions dealt with covid19.
- Badges
- Science topic
- Similar topics
- Political Science