It is due to the fact, that prediction of many environmental processes is to complicated for our state of knowledge. We do not understand probably many of factors and processes influencing natural phenomenons in the Universe, including weather and earthquakes on Earth. We have been still learning a lot during observation of these phenomenons. Between rocks moving and gas release should be certain relations, but we should still work on understanding them.
Thanks Tadeusz: This answer is well known; does not provide any solution. For effect of weather parameters, we tried to develop an algorithm and applied corrections to Radon Data. We were confused by Positive and Negative anomalies occurring in the same data set. We had NO CONTROL over Rock motion before or after the seismic event; hence prediction remains an Enigma.
As I wrote previously we need to provide more experiments, what is first solution. The second solution will be to reduce the number of parameters changing with time, which we may not control. I think it will be interesting to use a press applied in our institute for measuring rock resistance for compression and shearing. During such experiment if it will be possible to ensure gas-tight conditions around the press it will be possible to measure radon concentration changes caused only by different reaction of the rock on the pressure changes. Maybe it will be helpful. I will try to organize such experiments in my institute. I will see what we get.
I Appreciate ur Idea. I forgot the name? A senior Professor in USA tried it.
Thanks Patrick: I visited USGS Lab. of CY King in 1993 but did not read his Paper of 1990. He had been sending his published Papers to me. But I doubt these Papers enhanced our knowledge for EQ prediction using radon as precursor?
Articles in the on line Journal : NEW CONCEPTS IN GLOBAL TECTONICS
are addressing things like Satellite Thermal Imaging of localized hot spots
just prior to Earthquakes, and the association of maximum tides with
Earthquakes.
Our paper Holub & Brady, to which Patrick is referring, was available on my RG site. It is no longer available for reasons I don't understand - so if you are interested, give me your e-mail address and I'll send you a corrected copy (eqs 5,6 and 8 were mistyped in the JGR version). Our Rn project was abolished in 1986 and our institute in 1996. During our work on the nature of Rn and Tn emanation (half-lives 3.8 d and 55 s), we came to the conclusion there is an additional mechanism of transport, not only diffusion and forced flow. This additional mechanism is also influenced by stresses and temperature changes. As I already indicated to Patrick, experiments that should be done are the following: Obtain either natural or man-made samples having known concentrations of U238 (Ra226) and Th232 (Rn224), subject them to stresses or temperature changes, and measure the Rn and Tn emanation changes. Note that in these experiments the forced flow is eliminated, it is only diffusion. Then scale up the same experiments. Say the cylindrical dimension doubled, or higher. If they scale up other than as predicted by the equations in our paper (only diffusion is assumed) - then we have a proof there is an additional mechanism.
Needless to say, proving the existence of additional such mechanism would be a paradigm changing discovery.
Robert: Thanks for ur Answer. Where is Clarkson university?
I will love to read ur Paper. My mail id: [email protected]
Hi Virk! I sent our paper to you. Clarkson is in the northern part of New York state. They do not have lab for this kind of work. We do mostly aerosols there. However, there is a possible connection. Does the "additional mechanism of transport" apply also to non-volatiles? They would aerosols, right? So, for earthquake predictions not only gases, hot spots, seismology.., also anything transported via this additional mechanism could be used? We shall see.
Dear Dr.Holub,
could you be so kind and send me one copy of your paper (1981)? Many thanks. [email protected]
Dear Dr. Holub,
could you be so kind and send me one copy of your papers:
-Holub, R. F., and B. T. Brady (1981),
-King, C.-Y., and L. Guangwei (1990),
Many thanks.
Mounir: I am sending U my Papers also using Radon as a Precursor.
Dear Dr. Virk,
Employment of radon gas precursors demands calculation of several noise factors. Attached please find two our publications.
Yours truly
Lev Eppelbaum
Hi Lev: Thanks for providing ur Papers. Let me study first and then offer my comments.
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