How much time do you will take India to come to a normal routine after COVID-19? As COVID-19 induced shutdown of the country is negatively affecting all businesses. Worst hit population in low income and below poverty households? How long do you think they will be able to manage in prevalent conditions?
It is uncertain because we do not know how long it will take to flatten the curve. In China, it took around two to three months, but in Italy, it is still going up.
However, it depends on the govt and central bank's policies. They need an expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, which can inject the money into the economy.
It will be difficult for India to overcome this crisis, even if the number of total confirmed cases remains moderate as compared to other countries in the region and worldwide:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports.
The main priority should remain the vulnerable and their specific needs.
Among the most severely affected are the migrant workers (whose number is estimated at over 100 million and who fall largely in the informal labor force category), the rural population and the homeless. In the long run, India should invest more in the healthcare system and tackle specific issues.
Brief comments on measures adopted by the Indian authorities in order to mitigate the economic impact of Covid-19:
The total lockdown for three weeks starting the 25th of March 2020 is not a bad decision per se, especially taking into account the possibility of the rapid spread of Covid-19 both in urban and rural agglomerations, the limited testing capacity and the fragility of the health system. This might temper the epidemic and give the authorities, hospitals and experts more time to tackle all the issues. Essential services remain operational. However it should have been implemented after several days after its announcement. Besides, special exceptions would have been needed. Several categories of population are extremely vulnerable and the government should have found in advance proper solutions for them. Among the most severely affected are the migrant workers (whose number is estimated at over 100 million and who fall largely in the informal labor force category), the rural population and the homeless.
In the world's largest fifth economy, the economic stimulus is modest and will remain so, as the twin deficits and other weaknesses of the national economy do not allow large-scale measures at present. On March 26, the central government announced a support package worth 1.7 billion rupees ($ 22.5 billion, accounting for less than 1% of India's GDP) for the provision of free food and non-refundable cash transfers for the poor and vulnerable. On March 27, the Central Bank of India (RBI) lowered interest rates and announced measures to increase liquidity (incentives estimated at 3,740 billion rupees or $50 billion) to mitigate the economic impact of Covid-19. The key short term interest rate (repo rate) was reduced by 75 basis points, from 5.15% to 4.4%.
https://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-bank-india/rbi-interest-rate.aspx
The reverse repo rate (interest rate for banks if they make deposits at RBI) was reduced by 90 basis points, to 4%. At the same time, starting March 28, for one year, the minimum reserve ratio was reduced by 100 basis points, to 3%. All banking institutions may defer the payment of loan rates to their clients for three months, but the deferral is accompanied by additional costs. Although the inflation rate remains at the top of the range of 2-6%, low oil prices and tempered demand for durable products diminish inflationary pressures.
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