I'm doing a reliability study on a diagnostic procedure in detecting a type of cancer. I've had had 15 raters report how certain they are in their assessment, using a Visual Analogue Scale from 0-100.

Now I want to see if there is an association between each raters level of certainty and their accuracy. For each case a rater can only be either accurate or inaccurate, thus my dichotomous dependent variable.

Ideally I would like to statistically 'punish' raters who are dead certain, but inaccurate, or lucky-guessing by being accurate, but uncertain, while 'rewarding' raters who know when they are likely inaccurate or are certain when they have right to be. I'm looking for a test that can reflect and quantify this.

Any suggestions and how to do it in Stata or SPSS?

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