I have recently gone through a paper "The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change".(Hawkins and Sutton,2011)
Here ,they have fitted a smooth fourth-order polynomial for 1950–2099 to separate signal(trend) and noise(internal variability). However, they have shown the decadal variations from 2000-2099 in the rest of the paper.
Now my question is as the focus time scale is 2000-2099 why have not they fitted the data in this period (2000-2099), why 1950-2099 is chosen for fitting data?
Maybe they wanted to validate their results using some observed data (from 1950-2000).
Dear Javed Akhter,
For any kind of forecasting or future application of model, its necessary to calibrate and validate the model with that of observed data available. If it is able to show an agreement with that of observed data available, we can expect that the model will be able to catch the future scenarios to a good extent.
I completely agree with Sheikh Hefzul Bari in this regard. It might be due to the fact that, by fitting to a longer duration, they may get more accurate equations, which would be helpful to assess the variations for 2000-2099 in a much justified way.
I hope it helps. All the best !
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