How should an exploration project be evaluated as successful or unsuccessful? What are the main criteria? Exploration of an unknown deposit based on recent protocols or standards (such as JORC or UMREK) is enough to be successful?
Without a clearly defined objective it is virtually impossible to measure success of any program. That is why you got such different answers - all of them true and valid, but not really answering your question. Each answer addresses a different measure of success, because each evaluates a different objective.
A simple example of an objective could read something along the lines of this: To delineate a CCC Code-compliant Resource/Reserve of TTT tonnes/ounces of mineral/commodity MMM, within a period of YYY years and budget of $BBB, in country/region RRR, etc.
The following overview of the "Anatomy of a Mine" reveals the extremely diverse criteria for evaluating a mining project, including prospecting, exploration, leading to successful development and production.
This management is only possible for very large mining companies.
I took this overview (attached) in 2003 from
"http://imcg.wr.usgs.gov/usbmak/anat0.html" Best regards, Guenter Grundmann
Hi Zehra, a successful mineral exploration project leads to the discovery of a new orebody that can be exploited economically at current metal prices. The indicated and inferred resource of this orebody should ideally be defined according to the JORC standards, because this will ensure a smooth financing of the necessary infrastructure.
I think the success of an exploration project depends on many factors which financial aspects are the main factor among them. Actually when a company spend high costs they expect to find economic resources. If you did your duty in the best form, the company would achieve the defined goals. I had better say, all of exploration steps including Reconnaissance, Prospecting, General Exploration, and Detailed Exploration must be done precisely in order to achieve a successful mineral exploration project. In general, the site selection plays an important role and in case of a wrong site selection the project will go wrong to the end. We can say successful to a project when we do not wast the financial supports of the company and identify the most promising zones for final explorations.
The uncertainties exist also for instance in E&P (Exploration and production of hydrocarbons), that we know exist inherent from geological models and economic models. In this point, uncertainties are associated not only to the existence of an active petroleum system, such as geological structure, reservoir, seals, source-rocks, tramp… but also to another non-direct geological subject such as recovery factor, drilling, facilities, transportation, production, commercial, oil price, NPV, cost fixed and/or flexible.
Therefore, the risk and uncertainty analysis are one of major concern in decision-making process to select the ‘good’ project.
The analysis is essential to improve all benefit and potential weakness of each scenario in petroleum project as the decision maker consideration will rely on information from the analysis. Hence, suitable risk and uncertainty analysis is mandatory to perform to have broad picture of the decision problem. The result of the risk analysis will have substantial impact in determining which scenario has to be taken by the oil company and bring forward into detail engineering and execution phase. Consequently, a better understanding in the risk and uncertainties in E&P project provide helpful evidence for decision-making, that we for easier analysis can divide into some sub-projects or alternatives at the same-time and combining them into the set of options (portfolio) to mitigate the risk, but never cancelled, but provides a means for handling complex decisions in E&P process decision.
I attached: “Uncertainty and risk analysis in Petroleum E&P” by Suslick, Schiozer and Rodriguez (2009).
A successful exploration project is one that rewards the shareholders appropriately for the risks they have taken.
I do not think that the criteria for how the deposit becomes economic are critical however it simplifies matters if international standards like JORC or NI43-101 are complied with. The critical factor is in fact that total transparency of the risks, costs and rewards are laid out for decision makers to determine whether to develop the project on its way to being a success. A JORC or NI43-101 compliant report in itself is not a measure of success, only whether it rewards the investors.
There is no reason any standard needs to be complied with for an exploration program to be a success. Success is making money for the investors/shareholders in a manner commensurate with the risks taken.
The decision to explore and develop the West Australian bauxite deposits, some of the best in the world, were not made by complying with standards of exploration that would meet any of the common modern International standards such as JORC.
Whether standards of SAMREC, JORC or NI43-101 are used or the Chinese or Russian systems, the same critical feature of a successful program remain the same, no matter whether these standards are used or are not used. If it does not make money it is not a success.
The process and standard complied with may end up with a report that says it just has insufficient tonnes or grade or recoverable metal to make an attractive return. The report may have been completed successfully but the exploration program failed.
It may be a scientific or technical success which is classified as a fail by investors.
Without a clearly defined objective it is virtually impossible to measure success of any program. That is why you got such different answers - all of them true and valid, but not really answering your question. Each answer addresses a different measure of success, because each evaluates a different objective.
A simple example of an objective could read something along the lines of this: To delineate a CCC Code-compliant Resource/Reserve of TTT tonnes/ounces of mineral/commodity MMM, within a period of YYY years and budget of $BBB, in country/region RRR, etc.
A simple way to evaluate the success for an exploration program from greenfield to ore reserve is the amount of funds you have drained for discovering an economically viable ore deposit or the cost of unit ore, i.e 75 $US/ounce (max: $US 150/ounce Au) is a very good exploration success. You can apply this to other metals as well at the atios 1/10 to 1/20 $US.
An Exploration Project becomes a Success only when it reaches a maturity stage for Development. In my opinion, if you have an exploration project that has a smaller/medium reserve size that cannot be economical at current/projected price value then that particular project may be classified as unsucessful. It becomes a sucess projectonly when it can be developed cheaply and at minimal Environment Impact.