I am interested to know the studies and their empirical evidence on how organizations including businesses and most importantly academe respond to and deal with volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity of our time- especially during pandemic like COVID 19.
Please share your studies here.
Hi, thank you for the questions!
The previous commentators have given useful and practical answers.
I think the issue you may also consider is that terms such as volatility, variability, uncertainty, ambiguity and so on have been studied in different disciplines. Aside from their natural language interpretation (for instance something "vague" is not "crisp "or well defined), the definitions that you will find also have been developed analytically. So for example, "fuzzy" has its own and rather well known definitions, measures, methods, logic and so on. "Volatility" in financial analysis and "variability" in statistical theory (as the second moment of a distribution) cover much of the same ground. Of course "probabilities" also have definitions, methods, and so on. For instance, you will find both "frequencies" and probabilities". But you can also find "upper and lower probabilities" ...
Typically "uncertainty" is defined in economics as a set where the distribution of a random variable is not known; "risk" means that the distribution is known.
You and can say that something is "possible." What do we mean? I may intend to convey a specific meaning: for me "possibilities" can be modeled using Dempster-Shafer "beliefs". You, on the other hand may think of "frequencies", Yet, you and I will continue to discuss without realizing that we are thinking of different forms of uncertainty.
Does that matter? it depends on the context: if it is idle talk, certainly not. If it implies a strategic choice, costly and dangerous, certainly yes!
Against this background, writers often do not define what is that they mean and so they create "confusion" and "ambiguity". Alternatively, they use probability theory without realizing that they should not and they should -- given the context they deal with -- use fuzzy methods and measures.
So: the point is that I would first attempt to define what the term you wish to use mean formally before using it (or state something like "Colloquilally speaking, something is variable, e.g., it has a large variate relative to the mean").
Finally, I think your question is critical to good communication and reasoning under any form of uncertainty.
All the best,
Paolo
Paolo F Ricci
VUCA is emerging both in literature and realities. I have read a few of them but they do not have a common conceptualization and theory what exactly VUCA is all about. That's what I wish to know more studies done in academe, business and other sectors.
Paolo F Ricci provided a very good synopsis of the communication issues. My long career has seen many "systems" and acronyms come and go. Many are useful, some are not, all are variations on the same theme of enhancing knowledge. "VUCA" is a potential tool. If it works or is adaptable, use it. BUT keep in mind always that there are previous good tools, and new ones will always emerge depending on the immediate conditions and concerns.
The important thing is to keep your objectives in front of the tools. What do YOU want to learn? Never let the tool define how you will do your research or what research you will do. Maybe you will create your OWN measurement matrix that will become famous and discussed! :)
Steven Cooke
I am plainly interested to know how organizations respond to VUCA contexts. But anyways, thank you for the feedback or maybe a reminder?
Manuel E. Caingcoy , yes, I have found that even (or especially) in any research discipline that it is always prudent and necessary to simply define YOUR terms and usage before getting too involved in a discussion! Never assume your understanding is the same as some others - even when it is the same. My point would be that a SINGLE definitive format of VUCA probably does not exist (or need to), and that is in part because the elements that go into one will necessarily be more specific to a particular field.
It is similar to a SWOT. The basic acronym and chart may be the same, but the sub-categories and how they are filled will vary across industries and disciplines. Now, you MAY find a lot of good stuff to use! Don't "reinvent the wheel", but don't feel obligated or restricted to use anyone else's specific format.
Steven Cooke it's not a research. it's a talk I am preparing. But thanks anyways. So far, VUCA has been conceptualized and theorized poorly.
Steven Cooke
Paolo F Ricci
Mauro Luisetto
Cristóbal Rodríguez Montoya
Ivy T. Eran
Steven Cooke
Paolo F Ricci
Mauro Luisetto
Cristóbal Rodríguez Montoya
M.K. Tripathi
Steven Cooke Paolo F Ricci Mauro Luisetto Cristóbal Rodríguez Montoya
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