In many epidemiological studies we deal with dynamic and reciprocal relations. Still, we often handle these relations as static and uni-directional. My question is whether you want to share your experience of using Dynamic system modeling in approaching these issues? Also, what data do I need? Other potential analyses?
Kind regards,
Jesper Löve
In epidemiological studies two important data are needed to conclude the expanding reasons of disease and its control. First type of data related to realistic approach to find real infection rate by close door and out door sampling. Though this data changes according to climatic conditions but population biology of vector and host remain static. Hence, infection rate, vector population density, number of secondary hosts, transmission and reservoir host population, that you can find always in an average form, a realistic data can be obtained infection rate and death occurs in endemic and its peripheral area. In a dynamic system you have to always find new variables of study which are too complex to analyze, but such data resolute possible survey based answers about type of infection, intensity, causative species, host:vector ration, real mortality: mortality due to disease out break in season out of the season, vaccination and immunity standards, prophylactic and safety measures maintained. Immunity induction: disease suppression and control ratio. Possible vaccination and non vaccinated natural models to find gaps in protection measures.
Thank you for your interesting answer Dr Upadhyay. I just discussed this issue with our statistician who was not familiar with this method. As I understand it the method has been used for some while in Social sciences and possibly in environmental medicine. However, there has been several calls within social epidemiology for this type of approach but I find few publications. Are there any social epidemiologists out there who would like to elaborate on this issue?
Best,
Jesper
Modelling ecosystems dynamically requires solution of non linear systems of differential equations. a classic paper is Reseigno and Richardson, Bull Math Biophys 1967;377-384.this gave analytic modelling. These days a more numeric approach would be used.. i have done some work in this area-- in physiological systems not ecological--but the maths is the same. see attached paper for dynamic modelling of competing physiological systems.
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