I am looking for explanations on the lack of impact on mortality in general (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html) and the discrepancies in mortality rates between countries (Italy vs rest of the world) and regions (Mortality in Africa lower than in Europe).
Hi Andreas, I suggest that the epidemiological severeness of the virus depends on virus modifications via SNPs, which would also explain higher mortality rates in Italy and Spain. Perhaps there are already some GWAS comparisons between genomes from Italy/Spain and China, which would further highlight it. For example, favorable SNPs in the capsid sequence region that would promote its entry into lungs, etc..
Putting the SARS-CoV-2-Pandemia in to a historic perspective 2: Infections and deaths of major virus outbraks from 1967-2020... Note that the CoV-2 data is from 31 January 2020. Today it is more than 600,000 infected and about 28,000 deaths... Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1095192/worldwide-infections-and-deaths-of-major-virus-outbreaks-in-the-last-50-years/
Can Covid-19 be compared to the Spanish flu? I say no, because in 1918 we had no Antibiotics, No-Anti-Viral-Drugs, Much less knowledge and less technology such as respirators/ventilators... But then, some try to compare it, like this report, see https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-03/sars-cov-2-pandemic-history-spanish-flu-english/komplettansicht
Thank you all for your answers.
Regarding the situation in Italy, influenza death rates are also reportedly 2x higher in Italy (2013-2017) when compared to other european countries (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext).
Do you think we are overlooking other variables contributing to the reported numbers by focussing on the virus only?
FRankly I was wondering why more than 20 died from Covid-19 in San Marino, a micro state of only 30,000 inhabitants...
Do they also use modern medication and anti-viral medication?
Is it due to their habit of respirating persons whily lying on the belly?
Is it due to the older age of the population?
Is it due to the lack of intensive care beds?
"Do you think we are overlooking other variables contributing to the reported numbers by focussing on the virus only?"
I think, yes, definitely. Such factors, like age and immune system condition, are more or less the same over the infected cases in Europe, but the striking difference in lethality even in neighboring countries (i.e. just compare Italy (lethality-10,4%) with Germany (lethality - 0,7%)). I have looked up the distribution of diabetes (no intriguing insights) and the proportion of smokers (also not big impact)...maybe air humidity?
Technical Report WCO on Covid-19: Urgent Safety alert – many fake goods around
Dear researchers, in N. Italy there is an incredible violent outbreak of this new disease, but now with traits very similar to SARS-2002 and MERS that the current COVID19 sensu Wuhan-Hubei, particularly for death rate and severity. This RG open question aim to recognize some of the underlying causes of this aberrant phenomenon https://www.researchgate.net/post/The_novel_Coronavirus_in_N_Italy_Lombardia_COVID19_2019nCoV_SARSCoV2_shows_a_fatality_rate_compatible_with_SARS_Why2
@ Andreas Benesic and all interested
On closely following the present pandemic, in my humble assessment a combination of the following important factors are responsible for the day-to-day mortality, and fluctuations:
1. Economic capability of the country to test, contain (quarantine contacts and isolate confirmed mild cases at home), and treat seriously sick patients in the hospitals.
2. Hospital beds available in general and ICU beds with functional ventilators available in a country.
3. Number of tests done for SARS-CoV-19 to detect positive cases early vs the mortality (diluting effect on mortality rate) in the country.
4. Comorbidity rate of diseases (Diabetes, Hypertension, pulmonary diseases, obesity, smoking status, heart failure, immune status – congenital or acquired, vaccination status etc) in the country.
5. Viral factor depending on mutation (L or S type) of SARS-CoV-19 in that particular country.
6. Hospital beds, doctors, and nurse to the population ratio of the country.
7. Quality of the healthcare infrastructure of the country.
8. The occupancy rate of the ICU beds by serious cases due to seasonal influenza (responsible for up to 500,000 death yearly) and other locally endemic infections in that country.
9. Temperature and humidity level in that country that possibly may be impacting the transmission of the coronavirus.
10. Demographic factors i.e. population structure (children, young, old, and very old) of the country.
11. Literacy rate (capability to read, understand information, and act on local health policies) of the country.
12. Other factors e.g. malnourishment, quinine/chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine use for endemic malaria, or anti-retroviral medications being used due to high HIV prevalence, may be playing a role in certain countries (e.g. Africa).
13. Very selective testing of symptomatic COVID-19 cases and mortality of critical cases (concentrating effect on mortality), under-reporting (to avoid political effect, or a fear of international monetary support cuts), or over-reporting of mortality (including all SARS-CoV-19 positive cases even if the cause of death was some other comorbid cause; as has been seen in Italy).
13. Last, and most importantly, the BREAKING POINT of sustainability, at which the number of critical case overwhelm the ventilators and other health care in an area, city, or in the whole country. A current example is the situation in Italy, where the doctors are triaging COVID-19 patients for use of ventilators.
Ultimately, one will be able the gauge the definite mortality rate at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
I hope and pray that the "super-scientist Mr. Corona SARS-CoV-19" decides to wind up its business from this hapless world soon.
There is an interesting article that compares SARS-CoV-2 with other coronaviruses. This french group did not find evidence for a relevant difference to other well virus strains that are not considered as a threat
Here is the link to "SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data": https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300972