Two new postings:
16. Can Orange County, CA Begin Opening this Week? This was a high profile article in the Orange County Business Journal and explains that CA and OC have not (yet) been hit that hard, but still very vulnerable particularly as LA is now hitting epidemic proportions
17. Weekly Update: Kudos to NY and NJ Discusses new updates with U.S. lagging the rest of the world, but at least NY and NJ make real progress toward recovery.
https://syage-covid19-assessment.com/
#covidresearch #covidmodeling #coronavirusupdate
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Hi
follow this link
you get the real-time data model
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
you can follow this link
It all depends on what you do in reopening based on your forecast model.. Be advised that here in Ohio many if not most people are ignoring the Safety rules. I have been to several symposia on these models and from both a math/stat and data quality viewpoint i was very impressed. Just be sure to model for something worse than you hope for. Best wishes, David Booth
Thanks David. Ohio is doing better than most states, but so is California. But I think CA will be the next hotbed state after seeing how much flouting of guidelines is going on. I am working on my model to anticipate the effects of social easing. So far using primarily death rates, which have past behavior embedded, but not future behavior.
So we are two months later from this discussion. And yes California is now a hotbed state as are many others that flouted social distancing guidelines. My latest model does have provisions for rebounds in prevalence and deaths. I have a new posting on my blog as well. My two papers in MedRxiv describing the model are listed (with links) on the Resource page.
https://syage-covid19-assessment.com/
Very interesting read.
We have built multiple ensemble models to analyze the impact of Pandemic (increase in infection rate, mortality rate, spread, peak) on macroeconomic parameters, which in-turn will impact stocks and commodity sales. Hence used simulations then to predict the impact of different businesses and their recovery pattern at national and market levels.
Used techniques like nowcasting and DSGE
Hope you can expand the analysis to economic recovery during Pandemic. Article for your reference
Article 3Ps- Path, Pace and Pattern of Recovery from COVID-19 for Di...
Interesting idea. Will be interesting to see how well it forecasted in retrospective analysis.