Really I don't know, but some people in Valencia, Spain, are trying a complex SEIR model in differences to forecast the outbreak, try this way if you want. The model has parameters, (indeed a lot), and those are figured out by data. So differences among parameters for a bunch of cities should be the comparison rule you are looking for.

Sure there are better models, but this is a nice starting point

https://covid19.webs.upv.es/

COMPARAR LOS DIFERENTES LUGARES ES IMPOSIBLE, POR LA DIFERENCIA Y REALIDAD DE LOS LUGARES.PUEDE OCURRIR QUE EL VIRUS TAMBIEN SE COMPORTE SEGUN EL LUGAR.

POR OTRO LADO, LO QUE ESTAN HACIENDO LOS INVESTIGADORES ES USAR UNA SERIE DE HERRAMIENTAS NO SOLO MATEMATICAS, POR LO COMPLEJO DEL PROBLEMA

PRIMERO SE USO EL MODELO SIR,(LUEGO EL MODELO SEIR, EN DIFERENCIA FINITAS) PARA OBTENER DATOS Y CALIBRARLOS,LUEGO PARA LAS SIMULACIONES  EL MODELO MONTECARLO 

OTROS ESTAN UTILIZANDO EL TEOREMA  DE BAYES (PROBABILIDADES PARA CALIBRAR LOS DATOS ) Y LA TEORIA DE JUEGOS PARA OPTIMIZAR LOS RECURSOS QUE SE TIENEN

AHORA ESTAN UTILIZANDO REDES COMPLEJAS MULTICAPAS, QUE SERIA TODO LO ANTERIOR PERO EN PEQUEÑOS GRUPOS(LUGARES DONDE FRECUENTAMOS), PARA OBTENER LOS DATOS UTILIZAN LOS GPS DE LOS CELULARES

EL VIRUS ESTA ATACANDO NO SOLO A LA POBLACION MAS VULNERABLE SI NO TAMBIEN A LA ECONOMIA MUNDIAL

NOTA. EN ESTA PAGINA HACEN UNA MEJOR EXPLICACION

https://www.abc.es/ciencia/abci-coronavirus-suficientes-datos-ofrece-gobierno-para-realizar-modelos-matematicos-fiables-202003300956_noticia.html

You would need to consider how people are selected to test, and what this tells you about the overall number of cases in a population. Due to the limited resources, testing has targeted and therefore biased. To compare between different locations, you would need to investigate how each location is selecting people to test, and what impact this has on the bias. Not an easy problem as the bias is quite large and strongly dependent on the testing strategy employed.

Take Australia for example: total number of tests is now over 270,000, with 5224 cases. This means about 2% of the tests have come back positive. The undetected cases are by definition unknown, but likely to be much lower than 2%. If there are no undetected cases, this means that about 0.02% of the population is infected. If the testing was random, then we would expect about 2% of the general population to be infected. As the testing is highly selective, the number would be much lower. If the selection process is perfect (i.e. we haven't missed anyone who is infected), then 0.02% of the population is infected (i.e. no-one who hasn't been tested is infected). The actual number is somewhere between these values, but estimating this is very difficult, and would have a high level of uncertainty.

I big uncertainty source would be the test , the timing it is applied to population, among other. In Brazil there’s a huge underestimated number of covid19 cases because tests are still lacking for the majority of the population. Some people are dying without having th test confirmed yet.

Dear Croke

Thank for your reply, we really appreciate it

Best regards

Thanks but, ...

Доступ к полным текстам этого выпуска будет открыт 1 июля 2021 г.

Access to full-text articles of this issue will be allowed starting from July 1, 2021

May be in the next wave of virus ...

Dear Mohamed,

Please go through some recent work on COVID-19 like https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.001

http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3525558

https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/11834

and the papers cited these studies, you will get some idea.

Thank you

I refer to the following research work

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Dear Mohamed, Please go through some recent work on COVID-19 like

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.001

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/20-258681.pdf

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200316-sitrep-56-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9fda7db2_6

Yes, in some countries, mathematical prognostic models of the development of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic (causing the Covid-19 disease) are used to prepare the public health system for the development of the orac pandemic in order to develop, for example, smartphone applications to calculate the risk of coronavirus infection on a specific area in a specific community. In addition, mathematical prognostic models of the development of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic are the basis for the development of a pandemic risk management system. In order to build a mathematical forecasting model necessary for the effective conduct of the pandemic risk management process, the key issue is to first verify and determine the determinants of the possibility of building a universal system of this type in international or national terms. In individual countries, the development of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic is determined by similar, but not identical, determinants. Building a universal pandemic risk management system for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus could be very helpful in answering the following question: Should the process of lifting or reducing the anti-pandemic and sanitary safety instruments used at the beginning of the pandemic development (e.g. wearing protective masks, limiting movement people in public places, temporary closure of shopping centers, shops, theaters, cinemas, hotels, restaurants, museums, city parks, service establishments, etc.)? The pace of this process varies from country to country. There are different priorities. The results of predictive analyzes depicting the course of subsequent stages of development and / or the reduction in the scale of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic are used to a different extent for crisis management processes. Sometimes the issue of a comparative analysis of the interventionist instruments of anti-crisis socio-economic policy applied between individual countries, the scale of financial resources used from public finance and their effects of activating entrepreneurship and stimulating economic growth plays a key role in making decisions on the above issue. Whether the anti-pandemic and sanitary safety instruments imposed in connection with the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic can and should be abolished, reduced, depends on many factors, including, inter alia, the phase of development of the pandemic in a given country, the level of collective resilience of the society, scale new infections and their detection with tests, the scale of mortality caused by Covid-19 disease in relation to deaths caused not only by Covid-19 but also comorbid diseases, the scale of the decline in economic growth, the scale of the impact of the applied anti-crisis socio-economic policy programs and its effectiveness in stimulating the economic situation etc. In each country, the structure of these different factors is different, so the decision to remove or reduce the applied anti-pandemic and sanitary safety instruments previously imposed in connection with the development of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic should be taken by the authorities of a given country fully autonomously and on the basis of thorough predictive analyzes carried out with the use of advanced Big Data Analytics and other advanced technologies of processing large data sets, i.e. the Industry 4.0 technology. Unfortunately, in some countries, the key issue in addition to the thorough, multi-faceted predictive analyzes is to imitate actions taken in other countries in the context of international economic competition in terms of a quick, effective exit from the current economic crisis. If a universal pandemic risk management system for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus was built, then making decisions on the above issues would be very easy and would be burdened with a much lower error rate. however, due to many differences in the determinants of the development and effects of the pandemic in individual countries, building a universal and fully objective system for managing the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic risk is not an easy process, if it is at all possible. So first, it is necessary to decide whether this type of pandemic risk management systems for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus should be built on a national scale or on a universal basis, i.e. for a global scale and, of course, with the possibility of application in various countries, regions, cities and communities. After resolving these issues and defining the national and / or international determinants of the development of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic, determining the relative mutual influence of individual defined factors, and the level of their significance in dynamic terms, it is then possible to build a mathematical prognostic model for the purpose of conducting predictive analyzes of the development of the Coronavirus pandemic SARS-CoV-2 in a specific defined area, region, country, community, etc.

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Waw great

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343362937_Problems_and_Opportunities_in_the_Hospitality_Industry_in_a_Masked_and_Rubber-Gloved_World

Best regards. – Sotiris

There's more work in this area

There are more articles in this area. You can take help from those articles.