China has been able to contain the disease to a good extent but at the same time the disease is peaking in other countries like Italy and Iran. Is there any method to guess how long the pandemic will last?
A study tries to find out
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/
Dear Mohanad Fadhl Hussain
For now, complete lockdown seems to be the only viable solution to check the transmission of the disease but we know a complete global lockdown is impossible. Most affected countries have taken measures to facilitate lockdown. But the disease is still peaking in majority of areas.
Assuming the current scenario, is it possible to anticipate for how long the disease will remain in communities?
Yes, the computer models need to be updated, from the model that was run two years ago here in the USA for a virus pandemic that went out of control. We need to have new models, that will guide us to do the right things, so we can slow down and stop this virus.
In 2018, the John Hopkins Center for Health Security ran a simulation called "Parainfluenza Clade X" to determine what the potential would be of a virus pandemic, and they concluded: "...twenty months 150 million people worldwide--two percent of the global population--have died."
"...The global economy has collapsed under the strain, with the Dow Jones average down 90 percent. U.S. GDP down 50 percent, and unemployment at 20 percent. Washington is barely functioning--the president and vice president are both ill, one one-third of Congress is dead or incapacitated."
People involved in that simulation were Tom Daschle (former leader of US Senate), Dr. Julie Gerberding (former head CDC), Jim Talen (former Missouri senator)--Why are all of these people keeping quiet right now, and not telling us what they saw in the global virus pandemic simulation only two years ago, and helping lead us out of this mess, with some new simulations???!!!
This simulation information and attendee list is from pages 201-203 of the Bryan Walsh book, "END, A Brief Guide to the End of the World: Asteroids, Supervolcanoes, Rogue Robots, and more", published in 2019.
Details about the John Hopkins "CLADE X" exercise can be read at
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/index.html
COVID-19 pandemic would come to a halt once 50-70% of the world population has been exposed to the Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) due to development of herd immunity,
Read the link below:
A Data Science View of Herd Immunity, What do We Have to Pay to Stop The Virus?
https://towardsdatascience.com/a-data-science-view-of-herd-immunity-what-do-we-have-to-pay-to-stop-the-virus-3a05fc2ce720
Yes, warm up your computer and open Excel...dial in your country's www.worldometers.info for the daily total cases info., and then chart in a separate column how many days does it take for those numbers to double, as I have in the attached Excel spreadsheet.
When the number of days to doubling approach 30...then your country has the first wave pretty much has the pandemic in your part of the world under control. But there are still at least THREE wild-cards:
1.) 1918 flu ...caused four separate pandemics, because ALL of the new cases were never completely extinguished, like embers of a fire still burning, able to catch a new fire in the future.
2.) Movement of infected people... from other infected areas, into your cleared country's population, to reinfect your population.
3.) Homeless, refugee and ghetto-slum populations...in crowded conditions, without the ability to "social distance".
Answering the above question: Is there a scientific way to approximate when Covid-19 pandemic will come to an end? - I conclude that Yes, there is, the key issue is the date of creation of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus vaccine causing Covid-19 disease and its future, mutant varieties that will appear in the coming years. This is important to significantly reduce the risk of similar pandemics in the future. However, regardless of the creation of an effective medical method that will cause all or almost all people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus to be very mildly undergoing Covid-19 disease, the current pandemic as well as other previously occurring in previous centuries with time they automatically expire as part of the society's acquisition of collective immunity. In principle, this collective resistance already existed to a significant extent at the very beginning of the development of the pandemic, since 80 percent. the human population, despite being infected with SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus, did not show symptoms of Covid-19 or went through this disease like any other mild cold.
Greetings,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
In addition, currently (early May 2020), there is more and more positive data from different countries every day suggesting that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic causing Covid-19 may be in a downward phase. Therefore, in some countries restrictions on the anti-pandemic security instruments used, which were previously introduced to slow down the development of a pandemic and reduce its scale, are partially reduced. Restrictions on the movement of people in public places, the use of selected types of services, e.g. related to domestic tourism, physically existing stores, cultural institutions, etc. are reduced. The main purpose of this reduction is to shorten the time period in which the consumption of many types of products and services, many companies limited production, many service plants were forced to temporarily suspend operations or close down, and economic growth declined rapidly. The analysis of relations between individual stages of development and extinction of a pandemic and interventionist actions of anti-pandemic security and anti-crisis socio-economic policy programs will be carried out for many months or years after the end of the pandemic and the end of the current economic crisis. It was similar in the situation of analyzing sources and applied instruments of pro-development economic policy, including monetary one, after the appearance and expiration of the global financial crisis of 2008. Analyzes and discussions on this topic were conducted for the next several years after the end of the strong economic recession caused by the global financial crisis of 2008. I have also conducted research on this issue and are currently analyzing various issues that could suggest some analogies on some issues regarding the 2008 global financial crisis and the current economic crisis caused directly and indirectly by the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic.
Regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Hello, Zubair, I think that it is so hard to see into the future of Covid-19 because of the most difficult thing for an epidemiological model to predict is human behavior.
A plan to ERADICATE the Coronavirus and end the Pandemic— has been initiated by the actor SEAN PENN. So, if this plan is implement consistently, we might be able to see a future end to the pandemic?
His interview aired on the May 22…on PBS “Firing Line” program with Margaret Hoover at https://www.pbs.org/wnet/firing-line/video/sean-penn-feetzm/
The principal method of attack…is “Virus testing twice a week” and Sean has set up five free testing sites in California with his CORE (Community Organized Response Plan) organization at https://www.coreresponse.org/covid19-- plus free testing sites in USA hot spots Chicago, Georgia, the Navajo Nation, New Orleans, and with the Lumbee Indian tribe in North Carolina.
Sean Penn’s CORE project… is an offshoot of his original 501 (c) 3 non-profit J/P HRO project and you can make tax-deductible donations of any amount to https://donate.coreresponse.org/give/232768/#!/donation/checkout
Outside of what China was able to accomplish in February in Hunan…this maybe the only plan currently active, that could possibly eradicate the Coronavirus worldwide, maybe by the end of 2020? This is similar to the methods used to eradicate smallpox in the 1950s-1980, and has been in progress to eradicate polio worldwide, that began in 1988 at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_eradication?
Perhaps the Coronavirus worldwide eradication efforts…could add the Polio virus eradication effort, and be put together at the same time-- so we can get a “Two-for-One” eradication effort?
Maybe the pandemic will end...when National Health of each country, is superior in importance to a national standing military, and therefore, much more important to National Security and economic health--so that the military funds need to be handed over immediately, to take care of the National Health?
Maybe we need to be very careful when…the virus turns people into brainless zombies, and makes them think that the pandemic is under control?...When it is actually, completely out of control and within only 90 days, two million people get sick and 100,000 die in one country?
Or the virus makes you believe it is "only the flu", and in another country in only 60 days, you go from 400 cases a day to 20,000 to 25,000 cases a day, and still not slowing down after two months, and you are dumping the dead bodies in mass graves?
Be very afraid for your own life, whenever you hear anyone say, DURING the pandemic, that everything is "Under control. It's going to be just fine." And a person keeps repeating, "It's all going to be great!." And "We're doing great in our country" and also "I think it's going to all work out fine." Plus, "We're prepared, and we're doing a great job with it." And, THEN, you find out over time, that the word "great" means is that a "great" number of people will get sick and die?
Statements like this made during ANY pandemic, especially when nobody has any immunity, and there is no vaccine for it yet, almost guarantees your are going to be directly responsible for million getting sick plus tens of thousands of deaths?
Scene is from the graveyard sequence of "Night of the Living Dead", the top-grossing film in Europe in 1969 and considered one of the best films ever made by the New York Times and was added to the Library of Congress collections of films they consider culturally significant.
@Craig Carlton Dremann
Sir, although the situation is still alarming. But, does that mean we have no way to have an optimistic view on this covid issue. I mean isnt there any hope, in near future, of putting things under control.
When the politicians deny reality, it threatens all of our lives, especially when they refuse to ever wear masks?
And the situation, at least in India, the USA and Brazil today.. is way far BEYOND alarming, since the projected curve for the USA right now, is another 2 million sick by October, along with an additional 120,000 dead?
The ONLY hope...is for each of our countries, to hunt down every last case, and stop the transmission and stomp it out, like we did for smallpox between 1950 and 1980?
Have updated my trend analysis of the total cases of Virus in selected countries, and also worldwide...and the best stories so far are China--with their A+++ grade that in only 3 weeks, eradicated the virus, and we should all learn from what they did extremely well!
Then, Spain and Italy...which both had a very slow start, but are now inching towards the finish line, probably at the finish line, Spain will end at a trend-predicted 310,000 total cases, and Italy at about 260,000 total cases.
Then, there is India...and unless they defund their military immediately, and cancel all of their pending weapons purchases and contracts, and use those budget to save their people, the trends are predicting one million cases by mid-July?
Then, there is the Dark-Side of this pandemic... "the Virus-deniers" those countries that SHOULD have everything under control RIGHT NOW, but are total basket cases, with no end of their portion of this pandemic in sight today:
A very good example...Where their president will not even put on a mask? -- USA = Only 100 cases end of February...then, 188 thousand cases at the end of March. THEN, ONE MILLION cases end of April !!, and now, June 7= TWO MILLION cases??!!! Outrageous example of total incompetence and negligence!
Unfortunately, our USA trend line trajectory, unless it starts seriously flattening out in the next week or so, is indicating 2.5 MILLION by the end of June?
WORLD DAILY NEW CASES above...Anyone ever read, or know, or can speculate, what is creating the saw-toothed weekly up and down pattern?--What are we doing right to make the lowest part of the curves, and what are we doing wrong to create the peaks?
Science will only give us a hint... when the Covid pandemic will end. What will actually MAKE it end, will be sufficient money for health care for all of the people in each country. Checking my trend lines today for India, unless it transfers a lot of its military funds for health care in the next couple of weeks, trend is predicting one million total cases by July 22nd?
Pakistan according to my trend lines...may have 1.4 million cases August 15, and Bangladesh with 1.2 million cases August 25?
Maybe right now is the time for all three countries to sign a permanent peace treaty...and use all of those military funds, to save their people? Only have a few weeks to make that important decision?
At a minimum, EVERYONE in those three countries... need two cloth masks per person, and soap to wash their hands and some detergent to wash their masks, and ideally the government start buying and manufacturing millions of composting toilets, for the 732 million people who do not have a toilet?
Same for Pakistan, where 22 million are without toilets and 21 million without clean water? And Bangladesh, with 5 million without clean water and without adequate housing, living in “squalid, inhuman conditions in slums and live on pavements or in any space they can find.”
It does not make any sense at all for those three countries.. to have ANY budgets for their militaries and to purchase weapons, when tens to hundreds of millions are suffering? Basic living conditions and health care MUST trump military budgets, to produce true “National Security.”
And also, those military funds...could be used to getclean waterto the 163 million people in India without clean water, and the government start building thedecent housing that 74 million people are lacking?
“An adequate shelter… must at a minimum should have security of tenure, protection from elements of nature, utility services such as safe drinking water and electricity or solar panels, sanitation and other essential services, it needs to be affordable and accessible.”
The two billion people in the three countries...need your governments to step up and start take care of their people, not like our government and its gross-negligence in the USA, of over two million Covid cases right now?
I think we are running up against a new definition of what really constitutes "National Security" for the people of each country? For thousands of years, it has always been who has the mightier armies, and that pattern was more or less successful until the spring of 2020. Now the Covid is teaching us, maybe that was exactly the wrong investment that each country has been making for a very long time now.
Right now, ALL of those funds MUST be invested in the TRUE "National Security" for the people? Like free heath care, clean water, free soaps and detergents for washing, several free masks for EVERYONE, adequate housing for all, a method to cook your food so you do not deforest your country, a sanitary place to put your poop like a composting toilet, free solar panels, etc.
The only thing that will ultimately save us from the virus, is a massive investment worldwide in REAL National Security. How can we even start the fight against the virus, until EVERY individual on the planet is in a strong position to fight--and armed with clean water and soap and adequate housing, etc? Otherwise, we are asking humanity to try and win this fight, with both hands tied behind their backs?
All those things can be paid for, with the shifted military budgets--the New National Security items--plus tax the top 20% of each country with a 80% income tax, and that includes the corporations that must stop hiding their profits overseas. If your physical headquarters are located in Silicon Valley for example, you cannot hide your profits in Andorra, the Bahamas, Belize, Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, the Channel Islands, the Cook Islands, The Island of Jersey, Hong Kong, The Isle of Man, Mauritius, Lichtenstein, Monaco, Panama, Switzerland or the UAE?
BLOOD TYPE and Type A more vulnerable being killed by Covid- https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/932333
There are too many confounding factors to predict when this pandemic is going to come to an end.