I wanted to assess the effect of recent GST reform on state revenue of Karnataka in India. I have a time series (annual) data of tax revenue from 1960 to 2017-18. The New GST has been implemented in the state in the month of July 2017. Implementation of GST was a a historical tax reform that replaced VAT with reference to indirect taxation in India. Data on tax revenue before implementation of GST has the reference to different tax regimes. Now the problem is, I wanted to forecast the potential impact of implementation of GST on state's revenue for another 5 years (at least) i.e. from 2020-21 to 2024-25. Suggestions/guidance in this regard highly appreciated.
Ramanjini
Hi Ramanjini,
A good question. You could start by looking at how the Indian Treasury does it forecasting of tax revenues for other revenue streams. You could also look at the forecasts used when proposing and implementing the GST. You could also look at mechanisms used in other jurisdictions when they implemented their GST. However, given the unique characteristics of the Indian GST comparisons may not prove to be very fruitful.
All the be with your research,
Adrian
Please the paper https://www.nipfp.org.in/publications/working-papers/1870/
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