I am applying Dynamic Bayesian networks using GENIE software for availability assessment of a hydropower plant. I have past 10 year failure data based on which I have evaluated the generating unit availability, which is 0.95 at t=0.
Now in DBN, when I am using time interval of 1 hour for 500 time steps (Genie can take up to 1000 steps), my unit availability at t=1 is 0.93 and gradually reducing to 0.92 at 500th step.
When I am considering, time interval of 1 day (24 hours), for 500 time steps, my unit availability at t=1 is 0.87 and gradually reducing to very low value of 0.06 at 500th step.
When I am considering, time interval of 1 week (24*7 hours), for 500 time steps, my unit availability at t = 1 drops down to 0.45, at t=2 rises to 0.477, then gradually decreases and becomes constant from t = 36 , with 0.471.
I am unable to understand why the variation in availability values?
Thanking You
Regards
Sanchit S Agarwal
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