Dear everyone,
do you have any experience on the analysis of yield stability or yield risk based on simulated crop yield data? I would like to use a modelling approach and simulate grain yields (of cereal crops like winter wheat) depending on different agronomic practices, soil profiles and weather data. Based on the simulated grain yield data, I would like to calculate stability parameters (like Shukla`s stability variance index, adjusted CV, etc.). The problem is that I don`t have an underlying field trial design with randomisation or real replicates - I`ll get only one yield value per environment (soil profile*year) for each agronomic practice (like cropping sequence, fertilisation variant, etc.). Do you have any experience with that problem?
With many thanks for your help in advance!
Janna
Helo Janna,
First possibility would be introduce some random factors to the parameters of your model system. In this case you will have repeat. But be careful with this approach. The second is to use different weather data as input, so you will have so many values per agronomic practice as your weather input data sets.
Best
Tsu-Wei
Hi Janna,
We are generally using randomized complete blocks with a minimum of 3 repetitions under the different climate conditions and with different soil types. In order to analyze and observed their GxE interactions, we test all the materials in different locations and multi-year.
Best wishes,
Ömer
Dear Ömer,
Thanks for your kind reply and your recommendation.
With best wishes,
Janna
You certainly do some interesting research work. We once simulated yield changing tendency for maize cropping with and without soil conservation practice in next 100 years using Montecarlo. We took rainfall data (you get this from DWD for free) and used the probability distribution in the soil loss equation (RUSLE). Also you can add trends. There is a causal relationship between soil loss and yields. Have a look in the paper Article Risk assessment within agricultural production: Soil conserv...
You can also do this with other factors, such as fertilizer prices etc.Average long term trends in yields for major crops can be obtained from FAO stats or here: Article Estimation of past and recent carbon input by crops into agr...
Dear Rico,
These are a lot of very interesting points and ideas! Thank you very much.
With best wishes,
Janna
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