The sample size for my study is 1970-2014, but one of my variable only available from 1995-2014. How should I extrapolate to get the data from 1970-1994? Any softwares like Eviews or Stata can do this?
I tried using trend function in Excel but the value I got for 1970 is a negative number, but I should not be negative though.
Fit a model to the 1995-2014 data. Then if we can forecast into the future on the basis of the fitted model we can also backcast by a reverse process from 1994 back to 1970. I am not sure that Eviews or Stata or any other software can do this. Forecasting is more logical and likely than backcasting. Then the backcasts may be used as estimates of the missing values.
Hi, you can depend on numrical analysis ( Gauss Forward/Backward Formulas ) or Newton’s Forward/Backward Formulas ..
With Best Regards
Extrapolation methods are reliable and easily automated. As a result, they are widely used, especially for inventory and production forecasts, for operational planning for up to two years ahead, and for long-term forecasts in some situations, such as population forecasting. Hopefully you will find the following articles useful.
https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1179&context=marketing_papers
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/files/LRF-Ch7b.pdf
Hi, one way that you can to is to find the growth of other variable and apply that growth to the variable with the missing data. You can't use the interpolation methods in Eviews because your data series seems to be missing significantly. E.g GDP growth 1995 to 1996 is 4%. You another variable like consumption for eg. is missing the value in 1995 but has a value in 1996. So take the value of consumption in 1996 divided by the growth rate of GDP, 4% and you can get the value in 1995. Hope this helps.
Use Bayesian Calibration for forecasting/backcasting. Matlab codes link is: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/52473-an-econometric-investigation-of-the-sunspot-numbers-since-the-year-1700. Hope it helps. Please quote. Paper is here: Article An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record si...
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