If the new weaponry coming into Ukraine proves a tipping point, in line with the degradation of Russian society, how and when will Russia break up? Is the Eastern region the most vulnerable or those Turkic ethnic groups near Turkey?
actually this was an idea put forward by a think tank, based on the stresses on the country and its size. A small elite, about 500 in all, in Moscow and St. Petersburg holding the country together. The use of impoverished ethnic groups to fight its war, the tatar states straining at the leash, their freedom promoted by Turkey, and the occupation of Manchuria with China watching as events play out.
In case of Russian defeat in the war, secession of some territories from Russia cannot be excluded. In the 1990s, Chechnya fought two wars for independence. However, there is no reason to anticipate general breakdown of Russia. Ethnic Great Russians form more than 80% of the population. They have strong identity and historical state tradition. Currently, Russia has no border with Turkey, because the three former Soviet republics: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan gained independence in 1991.
Johannes,
I am aware of the drive towards Russification within Siberia, but that does not mean, if central government is found to be too toxic and wars continue, that younger politicians might not desire own governance. The argument towards dissolution relies on internal pressures gathering and war becoming an increasing burden for the general population. There is evidence of internal degradation but it may be no more than Russian people are prepared to tolerate. The general population appears to view war as glorious, whether Russia is winning or losing them.
The Russian system relies on internal competition amongst a small number, and growing dynasties amongst what appears to be an incompetent bunch addicted to corruption as an entitlement. None of this means a breakup.
The mention of Turkey is in lieu of the Turkic states that it is thought look towards Turkey. But should Russia consider attacking Asian/Siberian states that gained their freedom in 1991 this may ensure internal conflict. Finally, all the evidence indicates that Russia has a fast shrinking population, one reason for the theft of Ukrainian children, and many are very poor and honestly look very, very unhealthy. Realistically, the centralisation of power within Russia does not appear to help many population groups outside of the centre who seem to pay for Moscow and St Petersburg's relative wealth. But again, that is said of London for example and grumbling is not revolt or breakup.
Today is the 800th day of the heroic struggle of the Ukrainian people since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. During this time, the Ukrainians destroyed a significant part of Russia's military potential: 1) more than 472,000 experienced Russian soldiers and officers, 2) 348 military aircraft and 325 helicopters, 3) 7,354 tanks, 4) 14,129 armored infantry vehicles, 5) 12,102 powerful artillery units, 6) 786 powerful air defense complexes (air defense), 7) 1,053 salvo artillery systems (Grad type), 8) 26 naval ships and boats (including the flagship of the Russian fleet "Moscow" and 1 submarine, 9) 9,580 unmanned aerial vehicles. In addition, Ukraine struck Russian oil refineries with drones of its own development. More than 15 oil refineries in 9 regions of Russia were damaged. This destroyed 15% of Russia's oil refining capacity. Long-range Ukrainian-developed drones fly more than 2,000 km and already reach the Urals. Ukraine will NEVER submit to Russia and shows an example to the world that Russia should not be feared. Ukrainian humor - "Russia is not big, it's just long."
The Russians are improvising now as well. War develops. But clearly they want to destroy Odessa. If the French go in, others will too.
In terms of degradation of the top people, Shoigu and his gang for the high jump-usual gangsterism.
THE COLLAPSE OF RUSSIA'S MINISTRY OF DEFENCE IN REAL-TIME || 2024
📷
654K subscribersWarthog Defense
The war between Ukraine and Russia will be remembered as one nation fought for its freedom, and the other for its slavery.
I have elsewhere suggested that the French army need send in only a small force, as little as 2000 to make a difference. Once they demonstrate, as I'm assuming they would, immediate superiority even in a narrow sector, the Russian army will attempt to evolve to meet the threat. The Russian lack of access to Western technology will act against them. Russian troop casualties will rise and when troops from elsewhere in Europe appear, again in very small numbers, the rise in Russian casualties will far exceed the high levels already recorded. Again the Russians will attempt to meet the new threat with the subsequent effect on their economy and thereby the continued degrading of Russian society.
Of course, Russian society will be told that they are winning.
Gazprom's Massive Loss Signals Bankruptcy
📷
296K subscribersINSIDE RUSSIA
And now the end is near.....