Dr. Marco Pereira critiques the evaluation of varying gravitational constant (G) models, particularly those derived from Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR) data, Type Ia Supernovae (SN1a), and the Faint Young Sun Paradox. His argument revolves around confirmation bias and methodological flaws in the studies that claim G has remained nearly constant over time.
Key Points of Criticism
Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR) and the Gravitational Constant (G)NASA's 37-year LLR study measured the Moon’s distance from Earth and inferred constraints on variations of G. However, they did not directly measure G but instead assumed tidal-locking models were correct. Pereira argues that their conclusion—small ΔG/G values—essentially means the tidal-locking model's prediction was taken as fact. They failed to include Model Risk (a.k.a. Model Error), and Parameter Error. Just model error would cause a 1E-7 error on the Tidal-Locking Model Prediction and yet, NASA concluded that ΔG/G over a year was smaller than 1E-13. Model errors, such as incorrect gravitational laws (Newton’s law being inaccurate for Mercury’s perihelion precession), and unknown parameters (Earth’s internal structure affecting moment of inertia) lead to unreliable conclusions. The extreme precision claimed by NASA in their estimation of G is, therefore, a result of confirmation bias—they accept results that conform to their expectations while ignoring potential model errors. Sahni & Shtanov (2014) – Variable G and the Faint Young Sun ParadoxThe paper explores whether a varying G can resolve the paradox of liquid water existing on Earth despite the Sun being fainter in the past. Pereira criticizes their assumption that the solar mass (M) remains constant, even though a time-varying G would imply changes in solar evolution. The paper also neglects alternative solutions, such as hydrogen accretion affecting solar mass. This lack of internal consistency and failure to test alternative explanations highlights confirmation bias in their approach. Reference:Sahni, V., & Shtanov, Y. (2014). Can a variable gravitational constant resolve the faint young Sun paradox? International Journal of Modern Physics D, 23(12). DOI: 10.1142/S0218271814420188, arXiv:1405.4369. Mould & Uddin (2014) – Type Ia Supernovae and G VariationThis study claims to constrain GG variations using SN1a explosions, which depend on the Chandrasekhar Mass Limit (M∝G−3/2M \propto G^{-3/2}). Pereira argues that their model assumes the standard SN1a distances without accounting for epoch-dependent GG, leading to systematic errors. Instead of correcting photometric distances for an evolving G, they tested their hypothesis within the framework of the ΛCDM model. If they had correctly incorporated G-dependent corrections, they might have challenged the need for dark energy and the LCDM model itself. Reference:Mould, J., & Uddin, S. A. (2014). Constraining a possible variation of G with type Ia supernovae. Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia, 31(1), 1–15. DOI: 10.1017/pasa.2014.9. Conclusion
Pereira asserts that all these studies exhibit confirmation bias, as they:
- Use models that assume a constant G or fail to properly test its variation.
- Overestimate precision by ignoring major model errors and uncertainties.
- Fail to explore alternative explanations, such as hydrogen accretion affecting solar mass.
He argues that proper treatment of G variation would eliminate the need for dark matter, dark energy, and space stretching, fundamentally challenging mainstream cosmology.
Dr. Pereira would be happy to present these conclusions in a published article in a mainstream journal. The problem is the obstinate censorship.
Complementary Reading:
SSRN Abstracts
# HU-The Big Pop Cosmogenesis
https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5012159
# The Hypergeometrical Universe
https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5012064
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