The pursuit of interests in the oil market Push the active actors in the market represented in the OPEC countries to converge with the independent producers and most importantly Russia in order to push the oil market towards stability for the benefit of producers and until now the beginning of 2019 is still a compact agreement which raises many questions in this regard and Most importantly, how long will this agreement remain?
See our short presentation at Rio Oil & Gas 2018: https://stt.ibp.org.br/eventos/2018/riooil2018/pdfs/rev/Riooil2018_1428_ibp1428_18.pdf.
Extreme price movements are unlikely for now, barring wars, a major economic slowdown, etc.
No agreements can violate basic supply vs demand considerations for very long.
Thus, the short answer is that the Saudis, Russia, OPEC, etc., no longer wield the power that they once did, so they cannot ensure a long-lasting agreement, especially one that goes against fundamentals... Nor can they impede overwhelming factors such as further increases in shale oil & gas, or non-OPEC production, especially from Brazil and other new plays, in the near future.
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