GB will not leave the EU at all. Mrs. May will not get a majority in the British House of Commons for the negotiated contract if the development remains as it is.

If the process continues, there will also be a change of government in the UK, The mood shifts visibly and this will make Labour more courageous.

It is also highly unlikely that all 27 EU members will agree to an exit agreement with GB.

Best wishes

Michael

Philadelphia, PA

Dear Turner,

Very interesting question. Notice your presupposition: GB will, in accordance with the vote in the referendum, leave the E.U. --but for how long?, you ask.

We see the doubts of Lersow, just above. Or is this wishful thinking?

I am, I should say, a supporter of the E.U. Its among the the very best that Europe has produced since the end of WWII. Whenever Europe has a big falling out, I'm afraid, the U.S. ends up paying the price of it.

Still, I suspect that the Brits are quite bloody-minded enough to leave. They may even do well by it. Staying in, they continually disrupt needed political measures in favor of a purely economic concept of Europe--which will never work.

H.G. Callaway

An independent UK could easily provide the point of departure and arrival economically with the remaining EU. It is possible that the EU requires countries in such positions as the UK to properly function and thrive rather than have all relatively powerful countries within the EU impinging on a continued centralising process. Negotiations would then continue more faviourable to the UK, or more favourable approaches could be made to the UK outside of the EU.

Those unhappy with the EU might also find a favourable position in alliance, probably economic, with the UK. A Europe in flux, as it were.

The UK's position would remain in association with the EU, compared to it favourably or badly. As said, such dynamic positions may help both.

First, you should remember 3 things:

1) The British have always sought a special role in the EU,

2) The British had a special position in the EU, which began with the fact that GB was not part of the Schengen area and ended with the British rebate.

3) The Brexit was caused by strong external influences that fell on a political fertile soil in the UK, but had no real substance in GB.

For the Brexit Solgan that it GB going better outside the EU: the economy will prosper and GB returns to the old Victorian strength, there exists no starting üpoint for that. GB's Brexit negotiations are themed "damage limitation" and this has nothing to do with the original Brexit slogan.

Since GB has had direction changes always in history, not to the detriment, this would not be an abnormal process if a Brexit treaty is rejected in the British House of Commons and GB remains a member of the EU. Of course, this does not mean that GB would not claim any special rules. However, this will be more difficult now. In any case, the influence of GB in Europe is significantly weakened by Brexit. What remains is the military strength of the British, but it costs more money than in the EU.

However, the EU will continue to evolve significantly over the next few years.

M.L.

H.G.

"Still, I suspect that the Brits are quite bloody-minded enough to leave"

You are correct about that. I suspect that even where it becomes obvious during 2018 that the majority now favour staying that the government will continue with its calamitous blunder and forge ahead with leaving.

I also agree that the US will pick up a some of the bill here. Trump supported Brexit as a 'mission' but will find it much harder as a reality (although by 2019 I suspect he will have other problems to worry about)

I have just watched an American TV History of The Great War, an outstanding documentary. It showed graphically the massive clampdown on civil liberties in America during and after the war. The start of the survelliance state and just how fragile democracy can be in times of trouble.

Woodrow Wilson was indeed a complex man. Resolute in his desire for justice in the world even though it sometimes resulted in injustice at home. Jack Pershing was a visionary general. If he had been listened to Europe may have been pacified much earlier and WW2 might never have happened.

America's intervention in WW1 is frequently played down in Europe but it is obvious that the outcome would have been very different had the Doughboys not arrived. There would most likely have been an earlier European Union of rather a different nature. It was that scenario that the EU was devised for, to avoid in future the imperialist ambitions of the nation states and the perpetual war that such ambitions inflict.

Michael

There is absolutely no realistic economic forecast that suggests that Britain will be more prosperous outside the EU. No serious economist predicts that we will be better off either financially or in terms of influence.

Even if we do build up an independant world trade it will take many years and will be fraught with difficulties. While it is true that many countries want to trade with Britain, contrary to the views of the Brexiteers it will not be on 'our' terms. We will still be constrained by trade agreements every bit as 'restrictive' as those of the EU.

As for returning to a glorious Victoria Age, Victorian Britain was not that great a place for the vast majority of the population.

Britain will be less prosperous and less influential after Brexit. To some though that is 'worth it'. Farage has said so many times but he is rich and it won't hit him that hard. He has also said he will leave the UK if its does not work out the way he wants it (so much for getting the country back)

I expect that we will go ahead with this folly and leave and that within less time than trade talks would take will be reapplying. Either that or we will have a hard line socialist government with serious problems both economicaly and politically with rejoining.

Dear Barry,

For the result of the referendum on Brexit was no economic and social reason decisive. The voter has decided so because it has been influenced so. Lord Chief Justice Lord Thomas of Cwmgiedd, therefore, stated at the announcement of the High Court's ruling that Parliament's sovereignty was above all other constitutional principles. Members of Parliament are only obliged to their conscience. It has been the most important constitutional decision in the UK for decades.That is also my basis for the comments above.

Michael

Interesting discussions Professors Michael, Barry, Stanley, and Callaway. Thanks for the tutoring. Best regards

Dickson

Although no economic assessment necessarily favours UK's leaving of the EU, all assessments, for or against, appear mired by bias. Time is still needed to make adequate assessments. Recently, it was stated that Germany and the UK are both experiencing 1.9 growth, so at present the prognosis is good.

Why the emotional ties to the EU, and equally why to an independent UK, although that is more unstandable? Would the UK ever been willing to give up so much of its sentiment and long-forged identity? Maybe not.

Britain is expected to leave the European Union on 29 March 2019. So there should be about 5 months to go before the deadline is reached. At the moment, that is until October 3rd, the government is discussing the issue in Birmingham. Theresa May's key note speech, before autumn's EU summit, should give an idea of which direction will be taken in the short run.

I think there is no more time for nostalgia, dear Stanley Wilkin , there is only one way out. A choice is a choice.

I'm not nostalgic, Frederic. I left. I agree with you, a choice is a choice, but the trouble has been those who have refused to accept the decision-apparently voters for leaving were racist, deluded and a number of other distasteful accusations. I do not actually believe that the EU in its present form is the answer-I mean it seems to be heading towards an autocracy. Having unelected leaders, with genuine power or not, is not a good sign. In 50 years the EU could be another China.

Want to bet?

Almost there. Meanwhile, here's a riddle: If there will not be another referendum, then there will be another referendum. How is that possible?

(Hint: think Scotland.)

It is very difficult to predict the comeback, but anything is possible. As you have astutely observed, the younger generations have the right to decide for themselves.