"Discussion -- it's a sure way for understanding"
- this Motto is the method widely used and developed by Socrat from Ancient time of thinking.
Studding and doing research on Earth Science phenomena I found an interesting, and still open question topic for discussions
- what kind of phenomenon are the earthquakes ?
- are they random, or may be related by general rule cause-effect in Physics, and be foretasted, or predicted ?
I am interested in opinions. So if you are interested too, please write your point of view first as a title, and below, develop the position.
But before to start, I will introduce in the meaning of this dualism.
EARTHQUAKE - process, here, cause-effect - is failure of the thin Earth crust and shake propagation trough it's structure.
RANDOM - process, no model of interaction (cause-effect), stochastic
FORECAST/PREDICT - process, the cause-effect principle is found.
Forecast
At least the gravitational interactions between Earth, Sun and Moon has been detected for Earthquake at global and regional scale, for short (1 year) and long (200 years) periods of observation. So the seismogenic process on Earth crust are triggered (influenced ) by the gravity variations due to Sun and Moon. From my recent papers you can see more details on this conclusion.
It is not possible to be random, earthquakes depends on based on having their own balanced system.
Thank you for your interest in the topic, Ahmad S. Yasien Al-Gurairy.
Yes, it is not possible to be random, but UNFORTUNATELY, it is widely used in Hazard Analysis. When it uses the 10, up to 100 years of seismic activity for EQ frequency occurrence to estimate the periodicity for Energy class EQ, as M9, M8, M7, or M6, it's found the probability of occurrence for one of these energy class in defined time interval. In addition, the time occurrence is distributed uniform on all period - so it may occur now, in next minute, or next hour, or next week or year, which is not much informative. Of course, it has good application in engineering for planning the structures, with life period more than 10-50 years, for which should be considered such as probability. For saving life, or short period warning (1-2 days up to 1 week) this random distribution for EQ occurrence interpretation is not valid and true. Because the phenomenon really is not random.
Because our planet has a lot of heat stored in the interior, this heat is trying to escape upwards towards the surface. As the heat moves, rocks near the surface are moving in a small way. Near relatively "hot" areas the motion is strong and this results in sudden movements (earthquakes) of blocks of rock. In relatively "cold" areas, not much movement and no earthquakes. Such "hot" and "cold" areas are already known more or less, thus movements can be predicted to occur "sometime" in the future. If you want the exact time of a future earthquake, you have to set up sensors measuring the heat underground for many kilometres of depth, something that nobody could do as yet.
Hi!
To: Jorge Costa-de-Moura,
Yes, you mentioned perfectly -"to accepted paradigms" it's considered uniform dynamic in Earth System. So in fact we see everyday changes, and we conclude that it's not possible to build a forecast. But this is only when we have - no model.
- How about when we find it ?
My opinion is YES, we can make a real forecast
To: Michael Issigonis,
I agree with you about this general idea - hot and cold as a source of energy, and the fact that mostly the surface of Earth is already defined and well divided in caloric areas. One idea is to make space monitoring of heat spreading in the Earth crust, as you suggested - but is technically difficult. At list could be real to place near the very active seismic source several heat sensors (small network, up to 5-7 sensors) to detect pre-seismic strong earthquakes signals (precursors) (and for quickly grow of data set, it is better to set the network near the volcano area - here we would receive a lot of heat!). They usually are available as gas emissions, lighting, heat emissions, low frequency noise signal..) so, it's possible to implement - technically.
- How do you think, this heat spreading, has uniform or non-uniform distribution on time axis (according to accepted paradigms)?
My opinion is NO, and we should investigate the seismogenic areas first
Earthquake Prediction, Forecast, Random events- for an elaborate discussion with case studies can be viewed in our paper ' Process of generation of earthquakes in Burmese-Andaman arc and Himalaya- random or non-random?' available in Research Gate.
Hi!
To: Sujit Dasgupta
Thank you for giving here on discussion a link to your work. So, first, I will place the link itself of your article (on RG) in order to make the data access easy for anyone who have interest in this topic. Second, I will write down a few ideas as a summary from your abstract and conclusions in order to fill out the position you touch by this research.
===============================================================
LINK: Article Processes of generation of earthquakes in Burmese-Andaman ar...
ABSTRACT: The frequency analysis of inter-event time between successive earthquake events (mb ≥ 5.0), with variable time bin, exhibits non-Poissonian characters when analysed for two contrasting seismotectonic sectors, viz. Burmese - Andaman Arc and Himalaya of Indian subcontinent. The inter-event time follows Hurst phenomena. The value of Hurst coefficient of the original sequence is placed in-between the maximum and minimum Hurst coefficient values generated by 300 randomized sequences. These randomized sequences are synthetically generated from the original inter-event time sequence by Monte-Carlo simulation method. Statistical 'Z' tests on Hurst coefficient values of the original inter-event time sequence with suitable null-hypotheses and Hurst plots exhibit pronounced non-random nature of earthquake occurrences and thereby reflecting the existence of temporal clustering in the sectors. The self similarity process of earthquake occurrences has pointed towards the critically stable condition of the seismogenic crust in the Indian subcontinent. As the process of earthquake generation is deterministic, prediction of earthquakes by statistical means is also possible.
===============================================================
#1 Question - have you extended your regional investigation area results for other research area ? Do you have other works for other seismogenic areas ?
#2 Question - according your summary/abstract and conclusion, the earthquake generation is deterministic so, the forecast is possible. You obtain this result by using several mathematical techniques. What level of confidence has these results ? Do you have metrics for precision ?
Dear Sandu,
You have gotten two excellent responses from: Jorge Costa-de-Moura and Michael Issigonis!
At the moment the economically rich countries have the tools for the prediction of the earthquakes. But they do not want to develop such a model because for this needs changing of theoretical since (example in our case plate tectonics, or gravity theory). They do not want to be known by poorer states scientist, because getting a better theoretical science models they dependence become smaller.
Regards,
László,
I have read your work:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318085650_Activitatea_seismica_a_zonei_Vrancea_in_sistemul_referential_Pamant-Soare-Luna
Congratulation for it… Comentul de adaus o sa-ti trimit persomal.
Article A Bimodal Hybrid Model for Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seis...
Hi !
(October starts!)
To: László Attila Horváth
Thank you for your remarks, about previous answers in this discussion, also for previous work done by me as author. Thanks!
I agree with you about the situations for scientists in Rich countries. Their positions is conservative because of old schools traditions (believes) and some authorities. It's very difficult to search something new in a non-orthodox way of mainstream conceptual politics in educations - because of high risks to be not understand and not sponsored so, finally - get no money on support your studies.
For poor countries, we have different situation. No money and so - no risks! The only wish here is to help peoples with enthusiastic movement to find the truth, which generate real studies and many times - brilliant, in-edit works!
I have decided to update my answer by adding here your article in related topic. One, is quick access for other researchers who have interested in such data and materials. Second, I will keep in mind and also answer to you about your work.
The RG link of this paper is here
Article Gravity a paradym shift in reasoning
Hi !!!
To: Jorge Costa-de-Moura
Thank you for your comments, and contribution here. I agree with your suggestions, and from my point of view the actual Theory of Plate Tectonics the only problem have with Plate Dynamics. All problems have roots in this question, related with horizontal movements, which is explained in natural way if you admit that Earth's surface suffer expansion, and start to suffer a lot if you admit the opposite - the Earth volume is constant. In fact the Plate Tectonic Theory comes to this bifurcation questions at his early ages of 1960, and the hypothesis of Carey (with Expanding Earth) was underestimated, because most preferable model was non-Expanding Earth model (and subduction, and so on..). So now we have wrong model, and all mathematical models build to describe it have nothing with real earthquake phenomena. That's why they are sterile to predict any earthquakes. Advice is to look deeper, to the roots and start to care for the second version, to develop - and build up "new vision" of Geo-dynamics.
Hello!
To: Nasser Shoaeifar
Thank you for your interest in this topic. I will be grateful if you provide the full version of the paper you have mentioned above, or a few words of your opinion about the nature of this phenomena - is it random, or deterministic one ? Thank you in advance.
Hi!
To: Valery N. Drobyshev
Thank you for your interest in this topic. Could you please develop your sentence. How regularity express Earthquake nature ? Do you meant their behavior for occurence. ?
Hi !!
To: Jorge Costa-de-Moura
I agree with you about your conclusion - " the question is deeper than expansion or Plate Dynamics" - directly, and figurative form. ) Yes, Expansion and Non-Expansion of Earth are based on magma dynamics (which are deeper in the Earth's structure than plates), and causes -which drive the stress cumulative processes, than their release, are related with magma processes.
So, my question here is - what kind of explanations are for magma nature ? Is it the stumbling-stone which make difficult the earthquake understandings?
Also, if you have some references where the contradictions for expanding model are studied and shown as incompatible with real natural phenomena, please write back here - I am interested in such a studies, if they exists. Thank you.
Hi!!
To: Luciano da F. Costa
(sorry for rewriting these lines, I should delete previous and write again from my memory my answer, because at this moment the option EDIT was not available here, but this is just the technical part).
First thanx for writing here, and for interest in this discussion! I agree with you, about the necessity of rising up the resolution in measurements. I come out from my observations, because I see many conclusions, many Ideas supported by the results without mentioning the precision. We need really to increase the precision in our measurements, and one way is to increase it is rising up the resolutions for seismic stations networks.
But, in fact, this is not the solution here. It could solve some problems related in the spatial location of occurred events, but no ways for future ones. The station density can't solve the problems related with coming earthquakes. We should step up for the quality level on understanding this phenomena, which is above to all seismic networks functional at the moment (because observation it's collecting data only, and nothing else which describe the phenomena). If you understand the process, if you have model, you can generate the scenario, and you don't need density network.
In order to give a hint on the way that Earthquake are not random at all, they are fully deterministic event, and could be soon predicted with high precision on time-space axis.
I will try to forecast generally, for coming next 72 hours (07-09.10.2018)
Occurrence of EQ with M7* (up to 7.0) is 90%
Occurrence of EQ with M8* (up to 8.0) is 80%
Occurrence of EQ with M9* (up to 9.0) is 70%
Remarks - if the events are not occurred in the mentioned time interval, the alert should be considered and shifted for next 48 hours, which rise up the probability of occurrence for each energy class by +10% (100%, 90% and 80%). Let's see!
I'm also intrigued, it works during last 2 years, let's test it here, today!
Hi !
To : Ahmad S. Yasien Al-Gurairy
Thank you for your interest in this topic, I consider your answer, and in fact, I agree with you. Could you please develop your idea by few words, sentences? Thank you.
To: Jorge Costa-de-Moura
I hope to change your point of view about EQ forecast. It is not random for sure. I made an attempt for next 72 hours (and additional 48 hours, as extremely rare bonus for M7* and more, EQ occurence). Let's test it first!
So we have M7* on 09.10.2018, as forecasted. More than this, I could add that it is first bird, and the alert should be keep high for reminding forecasted time interval.
We have an M7*(6.0) EQ today 10.10.2018, as forecasted! But, the energy is not released yet. So, the alert remains active for several days, with prior to the forecast time interval 10.10.2018-12.10.2018 (extended).
I could try to forecast again, that M7* in remained time interval may occur with 80 percent of probability, and M8* for same time interval can occur with 60 percent of probability.
Hi, Jorge!
(Intressting, all 3 attempts for the forecasted time interval has been achieved. On 09.10.2018, M7*, with specifications for keeping alert, and on 10.10.2018, M7*, with same specifications, and 10.10.2018, M8* with some next M7* EQ on same day, for the same forecasted time interval. )
OK, I agree with you that eartquakes are difficult today to be understood. So how about recent quakes. ? How we should classify them? Are they big or not to be forecasted. ? Because, to their magnitude, they are medium to strong, but I would like to take in consideration and other aspects, to avoid skipping important facts and factors.
Earthquake is not predictable, as the geologist from the UCSB ( University of California, Santa Barbara) explained to me.
Hi!!
To Jelena B Popović-Djordjević
Yes, I agree with you - earthquakes are not predictible, but their forecast is possible
Random is not adequate since we know , through seismotectonic studies and knowledge, where earthquakes are expected. Forecast, is for short periods and known parameters is not adequate in the case of earthquakes. Prediction is ok for some cases. I think, for earthquakes we can use the word -long term prediction-.
Hi Jorge!
Look, I am geologist, you are the physicist, so, you are the one that must tell us, prove to us, that an earthquake is predictable, not me, because I know it is not possible yet, and I doubt it'll be some day. But be sure that I hope very much to be wrong and that you succeed in this job as sooner as possible. I really do.
I see, so we work on this direction! ) And recent analysis and forecasts was successful about seismic activity on 09.10-10.10.2018. Let's consider a good start, 3 times attempts with no fail.
09.10.2018 (M7*(6.0)),
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=717137
10.10.2018 (M7*(6.0) and M8*(7.0))
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=717449
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=717464
Just by now, I can only suggest you to investigating on the tectonic motor or engine, because as long as hot spots remain stuck at the same point, as long as Atlantic ocean ridge continues moving and opening into North direction, as long as magma formation is not known, as long as Tectonic Cylinders Theory and or Mantle Magmatic Current Theory isn't exchanged by a right theory that describes correctly magmatic formation and the true tectonic engine, anything derived from tectonics is only a supposition. I mean, if you feed your model with uncertain basic data derived from uncertain theories it is clear that any result is also uncertain.
Thank you for suggestions, I would like to find more fighting points of the actual model in order to better understand this problem.
To: Y. Bouhadad
Thank for the interest in this topic, yes, seismo-tectonics gives to us a good hint where the earthquakes can more likely occur (place). To forecast and predict the time interval it is still an open question for discussions. What is for you the meaning of LONG term predictions ? Days, weeks, months, years ? Ia would like to know. Thank you.
Attempt on Earthquake forecast for 13.10.2018 at 18:00 UT
Probability of Occurrence PO - TEST ALERT
PO (M7*) for next coming 48 hours 90 %
PO (M7*) for next coming 24 hours 80 %
PO (M7*) for next coming 12 hours 75 %
PO (M7*) for next coming 04 hours 70 %
PO (M7*) for next coming 01 hour 65 %
For next hour - the area of interest WestNAmerica including Mexico litoral Pacific.
Vrancea, and Turkey, also SAmerica - Sandwich region.
Ok, we got an EQ M7*(6.0) in 24 hours from the announcement of alert
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=718122
Today, 16.10.2018 M7* EQs sequences were forecasted successful by time interval windows 48 hours, confirmed by 24 hours in next day, and last corrections were confirmation by 4 hours window on forecast - all 3 times - successfully!
M7* (6.3) EQ - at 00:28 (forecast was up to 00:30). foreshock.
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=718368
M7* (6.6) EQ - at 01:03 (mainshock).
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=718371
All these WARNING ALERT are on PUBLIC status (open access) on my FB wall.
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000397281042
REMARK
THE ENERGY didn't released yet (totally).
IT SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON NEXT 48 HOURS
M7* - with 95% probability
M8* - with 70% probability
M9* - with 50% probability
THE ENERGY CLASS POTENTIAL is UP to M9* so we should consider this case too
Dear Ilie Sandu !!
I think Earthquakes are an accurate system, not a random one, and this system is subject to the effects of the laws of physics and perhaps even the laws of nature beyond a certain degree, and we do not forget that man also has a role in causing earthquakes, so it is added as a factor in this phenomenon !!
Hi !
To Ahmad S. Yasien Al-Gurairy ,
Thank you for your answer. I agree with you on not random nature for EQs.
Dear IlieI
Did you take attention the last Earthquake in Greece 25.10.2018 with magnitude 6.5:
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/10/25/world/europe/ap-eu-greece-earthquake.html
The Earthquake has connection with your article..
The Tsunami is well explained in the final part of article:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327201504_Gravity_a_paradym_shift_in_reasoning
Best Regards,
Laszlo
Hi!
To Laszlo A.H.,
Thank you for remark. Yes, this event occurs in the time interval 22.10-29.10.2018, of forecast published on my FB page. The M7* probability of occurrence for such as event was estimated with 90%. Prior warning was 22.10-25.10.2018. So it occurs just on forecasted time!
About epicenter, the forecast computing is also possible, in terms of probability.
With regards,
Sandu I.
Hi
To: Laszlo-Attila,
Thank you for your message. Good to know, we wait for publication work in this field from your side.
Have a nice day
Colleagues, you are looking for an earthquake standard. This is the path to nowhere !!! It is necessary to study the trend of the seismic signal !!!. Every earthquake has its own individual trend !!! The problem of the earthquake prediction is finally solved by me !!! See my article, which is posted on my site. Sincerely, Vyacheslav Mikhailovich
Dear Vjacheslav,
Congratulation, Rarely I have found such a good article (Even I have forgotten Russian language)…
But do not forget, ‘perhaps’ I have such an ideas, which can help you to do it better.
Dear Ilie,
I do not need to do it, Vjacheslav made it!
Best regards,
Laszlo
Hi!
To: Vjacheslav Nagorny
Thank you for interest in this topic, also, good to know that some progress on this field will have practical value in the nearest future. Yes, regarding your work, I would like to add it here, as additional material in support of our discussion.
Also, I would mention here that your position is for Forecast phenomenon, not random, and not predictions.
Preprint FORECASTING RARE EVENTS AND PHENOMENA
Congratulations! I join my colleague Laszlo Attila Horvath greetings here. Such as papers are so rare in this field of research.
To: László Attila Horváth
I see. We should have more works for references in order to solve soon this puzzle.
Good day!
Colleagues, it is necessary to analyze not a static picture, but to analyze the trend of seismic parameters change over time. Analyzing the trend, we solved the problem of predicting earthquakes and much more. Sincerely, Vladimir Vyacheslavovich and Vyacheslav Mikhailovich
what problem i find with earthquake prediction is that most of seismologist is from physics background who know little geology or geologist who know little physics but for developing reliable method of earthquake prediction interdisciplinary approach with geologist, physicist and chemist is required.
Dear Ilie,
You have right!… : ’I see. We should have more works for references in order to solve soon this puzzle.’
But actually I am working like clothes seller and so I do not have time to do something for earthquakes prediction… One thing I know that Dr. Vjacheslav Nagorny made a great work, and in his work, he shared only general information about prediction but the essential method it is not described in the presented work… Same Dr. Devojit Bezbaruah has right, too:’that problem I find with earthquake prediction is that most of the seismologist is from physics background who know little geology or geologist who knows little physics but for developing a reliable method of earthquake prediction interdisciplinary approach with a geologist, physicist and chemist is required.’ Only one thing we as geologist sometimes may have more insight like those who come from the physics field because majorities of them are not practical physicists'…
Today before afternoon I also have had an intuitional moment and without ‘any analyze not a static picture, but to analyze the trend of seismic parameters change over time.’- developed the concept of my prediction of some type of earthquakes.
Regards,
Laszlo
Get to know the breakthrough technology of forecasting various events and events ranging in nature from earthquakes to myocardial infarction (I have 10 patents). To illustrate this methodology, I am sending a software application for diagnosing and predicting the resource of technical systems.
I am sending for review the beta version of the application for a smartphone based on the Android OS. The application for the first time in the world determines the individual life of various industrial equipment.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Qe-CbVOkOeJgfckR6wi0YxODxuM997lf/view?usp=sharing
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ay0Q87viWIz0gFbmLdGmAjTupdBV2ESw/view?usp=sharing
I propose to distribute this methodology on conditions of 50 x 50. The niche is completely empty!!!
Sincerely, Vyacheslav Mikhailovich
Hi!
To: Devojit Bezbaruah
Thank you for the interest in this topic and the suggestion you wrote.
I agree with you that almost always this situation happen.
To: Laszlo
If this research subject is important for you, please find some little time everyday and dedicate for it, and study, and write systematically your ideas about. On time, you'll get the result (as paper/publication). Yes, the general idea from Nagorny V, is well known, and his suggestion to follow the trend of noises, or mechanic vibrations registered by global seismic network, can give us some new light in this secular dark period on quakes forecast. His goal is not simple, because to reach the target it's possible by team work only. To work alone on this direction, it's not enough even one human life for. :)
Regards
Sandu ILIE
Prof Jeganathan Chockalingam has done some great work towards Earthquake prediction with huge success. Hopefully, in near future earthquake prediction is looking feasible in large scale with reliability.
I have been analyzing signals for 50 years. I transferred my experience to seismic analysis. Based on this, for 1 year I have developed a method for predicting earthquakes. As you can see, I did it in one life. When earthquakes occur in the timeframe, location, and strength that I have specified, of course, no one will believe me, they will say a "coincidental coincidence." God be with them! They accidentally failed to predict an earthquake. Vyacheslav Mikhailovich.
Dear Ilie,
I think you have heart about the tsunami from Indonesia (Yesterday)… without any proof my prediction is: The story of disaster did not finish, because we have remained two-three days, which can lead to another giant disaster In Asia (Iran, Turkish, Indonesia, China, Japan). Europe (Italy Greece, perhaps In Romania)… I am not work in an observatory centre, for this I would like to hear opinion Vjacheslav Nagorny, because I know well that he has right…
Regards,
Laszlo
Dear Jorge Costa-de-Moura,
I wish you Happy Christmas!
I would like to ask you something that: Is Emmanouil Markoulakis observation is correct… in case of its question?
‘Is Earth's magnetic field actually a single pole? or else why a global compass needle does not flip 180° when travelling to other hemisphere?’
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Is_Earths_magnetic_field_actually_a_single_pole_or_else_why_a_global_compass_needle_does_not_flip_180_when_travelling_to_other_hemisphere
Regards,
Laszlo,
@ To Avinash Kumar Ranjan
Thank you for interest in this topic. Could you please write down few references, of mentioned by you author. First, to complete this discussion, second, to make easier for other scientist to access these works. Regards
@ To László Attila Horváth:
Dear Laszlo, thank you for mentioned about it. I didn't check for the details what secondary effects it trigger, but I was expected to release.
Please have a look at my FB page, I try to post with regularities some alerts, in a hope that can helps for preventing human losses.
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000397281042
As I have mentioned on 23.12.2018 in the morning, that an M7* EQ is expected in next 12 hours (without specifications for the area) . And it happen, in 11 hours after writing these comments, at 14:25.
You can check also, the M8* (7.4) forecast for this week, and other post for alert - which has Public status (so is visible for everyone on my FB page, who have interest).
I am also not fully involved in the research center at the moment, but I keep monitoring the phenomena, and till now - successfully.
Best Regards, and Merry Christmass
Dear Ilie,
Thank you for wishes…Excuse me for I did not mentioned you in case of Christmas (because the Orthodox Christmas is in 7 January)… O.K. I wish you same Happy Christmass!
You have right… Before a month I send letters to research centres (USA, China, Indonesia) but I did not get answer… So seems well that they are not interested in prediction… In Friday I have made verbal prediction to my Chinese wife… (But this did not be localised)
Regards,
Laszlo
Dear Laszlo,
It's fine! Thank you! I do usually celebrate both :)
Regards,
Sandu
its only an randome effect... thats why it looks like a chaos type
@Dear Sandu sir
Here is the related link, you can check it.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322419779_Earthquake_Prediction_for_2018?_sg=A5vuFUz-pAcUOolxUsED5KkBlo4kNWG-LvSpgw64ROc9zQ3_nBwIwuk_5BGADH4t7lKuL7l6xGReNErt3K7HylLxfWvqGkOZk3OM9vRO.1x65Z3mKhIZdl_NzXCnDhEHNwWCALjrmlV6mq46emVhICVfZnu1d6vxRd_Hk8a3vayd8zPeS8YnttkgAVLeO3A
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327280917_Earthquake_Prediction_for_the_full_year_2018?_sg=vOkyOo8h1VjDUlrEgoq6SgUcf5rpNbOyVFZdEjI7njOTBaikaJl8-kxfLQPrrPKtu0BFolmZb5kchG7zeFaX2s2hzNSAOb3HjxcCkFut.s8WiHIhm6kWe2BL06EszVxI6RoqegVKtdvxzBxL844MQ6OuyEyOEiX3WvA-dg6pNAQVAjlEUbv5BUer6xW3GrQ
The world consists of an infinite number of deterministic processes. You must follow the change over time of the parameter characterizing the event of interest to you. That's all ! There is nothing accidental in the world, everything is strictly defined !! Sincerely, Vyacheslav Mikhailovich
Notice :
Recent EQ today, M7* (6.0) and M7* (6.8) successful forecasted
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2204446416245246&id=100000397281042
Dear All:
Take a look at the next link:
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Last_Earthquake_Forecast3
There debates similar problems
Regards,
Laszlo
Dear colleagues, the problem of earthquake prediction is solved by me. To predict earthquakes in Iran for 2019, I need seismic recordings from Iranian seismic stations for the past 2018. Sincerely, Vychelav Mikhailovich Nagorny
Dear Vychelav Mikhailovich Nagorny,
Congratulation! You have realised a great challenge of science…
Regards,
Laszló-Attila Horvath…
P.S. If you give me permission I will try to translate your work in Hungarian and Romanian
I will, only glad of it !! Translate into Romanian and Hungarian. My idea is based on the law of propagation of spherical waves. I’m surprised why seismologists didn’t pay attention to it. This law was applied in 1912 by the prince and academician B. B. Golitsyn - the founder of seismology in Russia. Vyacheslav Nagorny
Dear Vjacheslav,
In the current theoretical science from the beginning of the twenty century were created a lot of blind tracks, intuitionally, (the business interest)… The children learned with this science from the three ages totally lost their instinctive thinking ability, because their knowledge is built into an ‘illusitive’ (illusive) knowledge… Such a way we educated a new scientist generation who are 'sillier‘ than it’s non-qualified companion… That is why the majority from them do not observe the must simple things. Regards, Laszlo
Over seismologists push stereotypes. They are looking for a certain standard of an ideal earthquake (philosopher's stone), but it simply is not. Every earthquake is unique !!! It is necessary to control the change in seismic signal level over time. But this must be done cleverly !! The rules of this control are written by me in my article. Vyacheslav Mikhailovich Nagorny
Dear Vyacheslav,
I have taken look onto the information of the recent of recent Indonesian earthquakes:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/magnitude-6-quake-strikes-indonesia-s-sumbawa-20190122-p50suj.html
With our models, we could predict it.
Regards,
Laszlo
Hi,
Any news, suggestions, opinions, regarding seismic phenomena?
I would like to add my recent paper, here, in russian, which put on light the real mechanism responsable for EQ occurence.
According to its main idea, should have an EQ M7-8 soon. In next 48 hours, from now 27.09.2019 at 20:13 UT.
Regards
Sandu
Hi,
Regarding the forecasted time interval
27.09.2019 20:13 to 29.09.2019 20:13
We got an event M7*(6.1) recently, at 02:02 29.09.2019 , just on time!
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=795599
The forecast is successful regarding the question - when ?
Regards
Sandu
The before a made post is corrected in the next form:
‘Congratulation to your forecasting time... Your story is not finished yet., in the mentioned the zone will happen a big aftershock in the next local time a.m. : '10: 39' (10:28-11:40)’’ exist possibilities to happen earthquakes bigger then M.5.5 and in the next an interval of local time, (approximate 08.00 pm-03.30 a.m.) and same earthquake main-shock and aftershock M (between 5- 6)...
Regards,
Laszlo
Dear Attila Laszlo,
Thank you. In fact, during remaining time interval occurs one more EQ M7*(6.6) before 20:13 UTC.
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=795756
Regards
Sandu
Dear Ilie,
You have gotten another success...
Actually, from my forecasting only the next sentence is valuable:' Your story is not finished yet':
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=795756
Regards,
Laszlo
From my forecasting remained only 2,5 hours! :(
Hi,
Regarding your forecasted time interval, 10:30 - 11:30, you mentioned only Phillipines, which is coŕect time and place, but missing other solutions for this configuration: Europe ( Italy, Turkey, Greece, ), Panama SA and South America Chile, Peru, and Southern part of South America. All these regions, with Phillipines, should have rise in seismic activity for tomorrow, at same time 10:30 - 11:30. Maximum expected Magnitude M7*, with low probability, buy more common values could be M6*(5.0-5.9).
Regards
Sandu
Dear Ilie
Your prediction for Europe seems overestimated for 'me'... (the maxim has to reduce with approximate 1.5... the rest with 1-07 unite...
in the next 12 hours, it seems that will happen UTC: a.m. 02:30-07.30 First in East (Japan-Taiwan-Phylipina line) there have to be minimum 6 earthquakes bigger than M:4.5, minimum 2-3 bigger than M:4.9-5.
In China, a seismically active zone (Thailand-Sichuan-Inner Mongolia-Russia exists possibilities of earthquakes bigger than M 4.5 -5 (something similar to the next Philipina Case)... Europe was mentioned before...
Regards,
Laszlo
Dear Laszlo Attila,
I suggest to wait and check by observations this time interval for forecast. Tomorrow 30.09.2019.
Regards,
Sandu
Dear all,
Yesterday made my earlier prediction was no successful:
because of an appropriate magnitude (4,7) to the predicted happened later with approximate 2 hours later (local time: ... p.m. 02:10:16.6).
Regards,
Laszlo
Hi,
Regarding the time interval mentioned in my previous message. We got M6*(5.6) EQ at 11:52 UTC, just 22 minutes later as interval 10:30 - 11:30
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=795999
Regards
Sandu
Dear all,
In the next approximate 60 hours in the East part of Xinjiang will happen minimum an earthquake M bigger than 4.0 (but exist possibility to have bigger M that 5… (I do not have opportunity professionally to make better forecasting!)…
Regards,
Laszlo
‘In next approximate 72 hours in the East part of Xinjiang will happen minimum an earthquake M bigger than 4.0 (but exist possibility to have bigger M that 5… (I do not have opportunity professionally to make better forecasting: prediction!)…’
This forecasting was made early morning (07 a.m. Budapest time). But my working place did permit me to put here on RG.
One positive result:
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=796620
In the rest 60 hours will another earthquake(s) bigger than M: 4.1 in the mentioned zone…
Regards,
Laszlo
My forecasting method is for selling:
You can contact with me:
after a few days I will attach a fax number…
Hi everyone,
Seems to have a short Quiet time period for seismic activity GLOBAL.
@ to Laszlo Attila,
Why we should consider events less than M5, for which you provided forecast ? As it's known, most interested events are M5+ which could made damages.
In your algorithm, can you fix this filter M5+. For example, I consider events M7*(6.0-9.9) in my forecasts. M6*(5.0-5.9) less and M5*(4.0-4.9) almost with no interest.
If no events M6* EQ the period may be considered quite. Which is also important sate to be fixed.
Regards,
Sandu
Geological Fault , Obduction and subduction are the earth quake causes. two kind of waves coccur when earthquake happen R and S. S are more destructive. it's not a random event , some region like japan are exposed frequently to earthc quake.
The 1975 Haicheng earthquake was succefully predicted in China and a major catastropha was avoided. I think is a filed that AI , goepghycics and geoEngennering can answer in the futur. I was in Japan and a big it Compagny builded an effective smart phone application to guide peoples for emergency centers. so a progress is maded.
Hi all,
Seems to have rase in global activity for next days. Today 04.10.2019. Forecast time interval is 04.10-06.10.2019, with preliminary magnitude estimations M7*(6.0 and more).
Let's check the questions when and how much is expected.
@ to Samir
Yes, causes of earthquakes (shaking) are seismic waves S and P, which propagate to observation point through Earts structure from hypocenter. Yes, causes are related with hypocenter because here due to mechanical pecularities of slid (geologic) material it broke, slip, fracture, and generate waves. This phenomena (tension release) is caused by stress in crust*. The question open is about the nature of this stress and forces.
The actual Theory of Plates Tectonics uses the hypothesis of Earths closed system. This means all causes and forces are inside the Earths structure, as mantle convection and subduction. Last one is important to keep Earths volume constant, otherwise it would expand, and reflect other interesting processes, than now.
Other hypothesis is for open system Earth, so here forces from outside of Earth geometry are considered too. Mostly, I show in my recent papers (6 articles, from 2015) that Earth system is open one. We should consider influence of sun and moon, and particularly their geometry positioning related with Earth. Thir movement can be easily computed, so their efect can be estimated and forecasted. One of their effect is earthquakes.
In actual interpretation for closed system of Earth, forecast is not possible, because the real causes and factors are neglected. Thats why this hypothesis remain sterile for modeling and forecasting seismic events.
Relating to recent implementations of Seismic Early Warning in Japan, their principles are used in Turkey, USA, and Romania. The main idea here is to earn 10-20 seconds, but first we need earthquake to occur then by P wave data to estimate shakes and inform possible affected areas by mobile before the S wave arrives. But, this is not efficient for areas in epicenter area 0-100 km radius. No big difference on time arrival betwen P and S wave. So need totally diferent concept on forecast to use here.
Regards,
Sandu
Dear All,
My forecasting based on Omega-Theory, Vyacheslav method, Sandu and my Geological knowledge was successful:
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=796620
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=796665
Before two days I have made another successful forecasting, but observing your no-interests… I have decided to not share it for public…:
Before one week I have gotten perhaps an idea of important precursor of earthquakes in Romania (Vrancea region)… (But is under testing)
Regards,
Laszlo
I speculate that many investigators feel that Dr. Ilie Sandu is correct in positing an open system. Physical causality and completeness certainly seem to require it. However, one must produce some unequivocal, quantitative evidence correlating earthquakes to forces that result from extraterrestrial masses. The only quantitative evidence that I have seen, thus far, is in the article linked below. And apparently, extremely few investigators recognize these lines of evidence, because the vast majority doesn’t comment.
Preprint Spectral, spatial-statistical, and graphical evidence that g...
Hi everyone
Regarding the previous message, with forecast on 04.10-06.10.2019 for M7*(6.0 and more), we got M6*(5.8) EQ the max magnitude of seismic events during the expected period. Not bad, (the rise on seismic activuty occurs just on time) if to consider errors on values estimations and small diferences in absolute magnitude value between 5.8 and 6.0+. Here is a link for event details
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=797234
Regards
Sandu
@ to Laszlo Attila
Great, congratulations!
Looking forward for your next forecasts and results. You can try here to test your hypothesis related Vrancea area forecast.
Hello, everyone!
I believe that the earthquakes must by driven by some rules thus are not random. If we can find out the physics behind, we can perform a reliable prediction. As had been asked by many researchers in this community, is there any relation between the earthquakes and the Sun or Moon? Recall that the Sun and Moon had been round the Earth for over 4.5 billion years, even though they might be fairly small in each day or in each year. However, they are always imposing a persistent force to the ocean, the solid earth, and even to the inner core. Therefore, the Sun and Moon must play an important role on influencing the plate motions, as well as the earthquakes.
Our recent work shows that the origin time of Japan earthquakes has a diurnal period, the dominant period, which is surprisingly has almost no relationship with the Moon. Hope this fact could be helpful for our understanding on the physics of the earthquakes, particularly for the probability forecast.
Please find the PDF file or the link of our research below:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333036793_Evidence_for_diurnal_periodicity_of_earthquakes_from_midnight_to_daybreak
I am really looking forward to any comment or suggestion to our work, sincerely.
Prof. Jinhai Zhang
Oct 8, 2019
Dear Jin-Hai Zhang,
Congratulation! Your article is great! It seems well that in China are close to resolving the earthquakes forecasting, prediction (My wife is a Chinese woman, for this why I know well where you are in reality)…
Regards,
Laszlo
@ Dr Jinhai Zhang
From your introduction:
“It was also found that very large earthquakes tend to occur near the time of the maximum tidal stress amplitude, but this tendency was not observed for small earthquakes.”
Our preliminary research showed that very large earthquakes in California, USA tend to occur near times of extrema of amplitude of both the jerk and jounce of earth-tidal displacement.
Please see Appendix A of the prepublication article linked below.
Preprint Apparent Triggering of Large Earthquakes in Los Angeles and ...
Our website with all latest work:
https://celestial-geodynamics.org/
Best Regards,
Douglas W. Zbikowski
Douglas_Zbikowski, Your material is an excellent illustration of the Sorrnetto disaster prediction method. Oscillations with increasing frequency. I am doing this intensively now. Sincerely, Vyacheslav Mikhailovich.
Hi everyone!
Good to find new interesting works
@ to Dr Jinhai Zang
Congratulations for your results on mentioned paper. You have done right comparative analysis between gravitational forces and seismic activity. In my opinion, you can go forward to check the results from region to region and see if this is general law of behaviour. Of course, other regions as USA, Chile, Alaska, Indonesia, have more robust data base, but could be enough to draw similar lines if exist.
Regards,
Sandu
I am preparing such works, watch the press. Gentlemen, do not look at instant "pictures", but keep track of how these "pictures" change over time. This is the solution to the problem of earthquake prediction, which actually does not exist !!!! The problem is in the heads, as our great writer Bulgakov said. Sincerely, Vyacheslav Mikhailovich
@ to Jure
Thank you for sharing interesting info with us.
I should add here that your link at discussion on RG sho periodicaly closed status, which I do not understand why is necessary to close.
Also, I am waiting for your response about my question. Why you consider as forecast region with seismic potential less than 50% of occurence? This was observed by me on european maps you provide, due to color scale. For Turkey region colors show 20-30 % for seismic potential in your maps, during the period you compute. Also, is not clear the ALERT message at 10.09.2019 on date you mentioned abbout your forecast. Many open questions.
We can continue here our discussion. Thanx
Regards
Sandu
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