EQ FORECAST TEST 08.04.2020

Forecast time interval (window) 08.04-14.04.

Minimum impact magnitude M7*(6.0+)

Expectations occurence probability 95%

Location (global)

Corrections (possible)

===

Lets check and test my model for comming week so, I leave a notice today 08.04.2020

Regards,

Sandu I.

Regarding the forecast, we have a M7*(6.1) EQ just on time! Today, 12.04.2020. Forecast successful!

EQ link to EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=847305

Notice, warning is still active for M7* on remains days 13-14 up to 15 of April. Be safe

Regards,

Sandu I.

As it was mentioned, for remains forecasted time interval could appear M7*(6.0+), and it occurrs - today 14.04.2020 a 6.0 EQ. EMSC link, just on time! Again success

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=847842

Rehards,

Sandu

NB. Ok, first estimation of EMSC on event magnitude, provide 6.0, after 3 hours on EQ occurence the magnitude correction is for 6.1

General notice for comming week, or EQ forecast time-window 16.04.-23.04.2020.

The M7*(6.0+) probability of occurence is 90%. Additional info will come soon. Keep global.

Regards,

Sandu

If we consider EQ as a deterministic proces we have to define prediction. When the df contains time of occurrence then it can be obtained only for periodic (or quasiperiodic ) processes or if there are clearly and strictly defined precursors. As far as I know we don't have them so we have to consider EQ as stochastic events and realise prediction in probabilistic way.

Regarding previous posts on EQ forecast for 16.04-23.04.2020 that expectation for M7*(6.0+) are up to 90%

We got 2 events today, which fit this magnitude category, please follow the EMSC links.

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=848555

For second, waiting corrections, because the 6 in magnitude is first estime from EMSC. Anyway, both fits also location and time of their occurence if to follow Earth-Sun-Moon gravity interaction model, which I am develloping and support in my works.

Also, I can add here, these 2 are the first birds on comming event for next day M7*(6.0+) so, the activity is keeping rise.

Be safe. Regards

Sandu

N.B. the 2nd EQ was estimated by EMSC by 5.9 in hour later. In same way, I could mention that 6.0 in magnitude could be fine for Myanmar region, according to gravity anomaly record made and registered in Europe. Here, the M7*(6.0) was estimate the EQ in 2018-01-11 18:26, from Myanmar epicenter area (by EMSC), with simmilar gravity anomaly made 2A=700 nm/s^2. Today event have 2A=800 nm/s^s even more than for 6 value of magnitude. Anyway, more seismic impact should expect for comming days.

Wacław M. Zuberek

Thank you for your comments, here.

Yes, your remark is OK, and define well the existin 2 positions on earthquake interpretations.

If we know the real causes then we can build a deterministic forecast model, if not then use stochastic approximations, as it is used to do for this moment. This means that seismology have not clear image of all seismogenic process yet.

Regards,

Sandu

Dear Colleagues

As I have mentioned above, that on remained time window forecast 16.04-23.04.2020 we should expect extra M7*(6.0+) and bigger than 2 early birds of M7*(6.0) which were also forecasted. Location suit wel Earth-Sun-Moon gravity interaction model supported and develloped in my works so, location can be forecasted! Anyway energy and time was forecasted successfuly here!

EMSC report today 18.04.2020 6.7 magnitude as firs estimation https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=849227

Looking for updates in magnitude corrections

Regards,

Sandu

Regarding the magnitude corrections. EMSC made shift from 6.7 to 6.6, but let's have a view of this seismic area from gravity records. Almost, with same epicenter, EMSC reported 6.5 for event 23.06.2015 12:18, which made gravity anomaly record in Europe 2A1=550 nm/s^2. Today event made 2A2=1100 nm/s^2. This made magnitude diference M2-M1=Log(A2/A1)=Log(2)=0.3 so, finaly, M2=6.5+0.3=6.8

Magnitude should be 6.8

Regards,

Sandu

Notice 2015 EQ EMSC link https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=447905

Notice. The remain time interval of EQ forecast time-window 19.04.-23.04.2020 is still active for energy release by M7*(6.0+).

The probability of occurence is still high 80%

Keep global. Be safe.

Regards,

Sandu

Dear Colleagues,

As was mentioned above, the remains time intrval still have energy to release M7, it happen! 19.04-23.04.2020 was the window forecast and the event occurs today on 19.04.2020. Time-Energy forecast succeed!

EMSC report link for preliminary 6.4 EQ.

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=849673

Looking for corrections in magnitude. Anyway, they should be around 0.1-0.2, so magnitude class didnt change M7* !

Keep global.

Be safe on aftershoks now.

Regards,

Sandu

Dear Colleagues,

It is expected to have additional strong EQ during next 7 days 20.04.-26.04.2020

Probability for M7*(6.0+) is 95% for the time-window forecasted. Keep global

Corrections will come soon. Be safe

Regards

Sandu

Notice. The cumulative energy is ready for M8*(~7.0) if release at once.

Dear All,

We have found recently (few hours ago) that EMSC preliminary report on magnitude fix an EQ with M7*(6.3), today 25.04.2020. Just on time! Expectation time-window was 20.04-26.04.2020. Forecast successful! Be aware for remaining time interval, shocks may repeat. Keep global, be safe

Regards,

Sandu

Notice, on useful link EMSC report https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=851198

Regarding the magnitude, EMSC, made correction for todays EQ from 6.3 to 6.2.

Let have a look at seismic area, and find similar events estimated by EMSC. So, here, the 09.02.2020 06:04 EQ with M7*(6.2) can be found https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=828355

Let have a look at their gravity impact or vertical acceleration component seismic records for Europe. Today EQ made anomaly of 2A(1)=1800, but 09.02.2020 event, made only 2A(2)=800 nm/s^2. Their difference is estimated by Log(A(1)/A(2))=Log(1800/800)=0.3 so, today event is by 0.3 value of magnitude greather than 6.2 event in February 2020 (same area).

Instead of estimated 6.2, should be 6.5!

Regards

Sandu

Colleagues,

It remains 24 hours from forecasted time interval - up 26.04.2020. We should expect M7*(6.0+).

Dear All,

Regarding last notice, for remained time interval of 24 hours, the expected M7* didn't occurs. It's normal, seems need more time for energy release. Let's make assumption for next week 29.04-05.05.2020, for M7*.

Corrections will come soon.

Regards

Sandu I.

Dear All,

Just in time!

After 30 minutes writing my above notice regarding on delay of EQ occurece, and possible postpone for next comming week, the EMSC reported for M7*(6.6) EQ in Cuba region. Successful!

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=852360

Come later on magnitude corrections

Regards

Sandu

Notice on magnitude corrections

EMSC change the magnitude of EQ from 6.6 to 4.6 https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=852360

Regarding this values, on gravity observations, event impact is less than for M6*(5.0).

This means that M7* is active and expected to occur in specified time-window.

Regards,

Sandu

As we expect for 29.04 to 05.05.2020 to have M7*(6.0+) we just receive a report link of EMSC of M7*(6.5) EQ, for Greece area.

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=853296

Successful!

This is confirmed by gravity anomaly records in Europe. Correlations will come soon.

Regards

Sandu

Aftershoks! Alert active for next 6 hours, in the today M7* epicenter area. 14:00-20:00 UT

M6*(5.3) EQ, just on time! 16:44 aftershok

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=853385

Notice, on EQ today. (Just on time!)

5.9 EQ today, 03.05.2020, reported by EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=853635

Seems to be underestimated if to compare the historical reports on seismic activity of this region (Japan) - we found 6.1 EQ EMSC magnitude on 13.07.2019 which made gravity anomaly for europe 2A=1000nm/s^2. Today, EQ, made 2A=7000nm/s^2. Their difference is log(7)=0.8 this means, today EQ is 6.8 if to consider previous event precise estimated. But, as we see errors persist and can not be neglected, which induce uncertainties.

Regards,

Sandu

OK, with delay of 1 day, on forecast time-window we have M7*(6.9) EQ, reported by EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=854548

Corrections will come soon

Regards

Sandu

Warning for M7* EQ in 11.05-18.05.2020, global alert for seismic active areas. Probability of occurence M7* is above 80%.

Regards,

Sandu

Colleagues,

As it was noticed above in a forecast warning message, that M7*(6.0+) EQ is expected on time window 11.05-18.05.2020, succeed today 13.05.2020 by M7*(6.6) EQ, reported by EMSC https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=856439

Regards

Sandu

One more M7*(6.5) in specified time window.

Just on time!

EMSC link https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=857265

Regards,

Sandu

Let's continue..

The seismic activity for next week, 16.05-23.05.2020, allow M7*(6.0+) with 90% on occurence probability. Look GLOBAL.

Regards,

Sandu

Notice, about estimated magnitude values of EQ's in Greece, yesterday 18.05.2020

EMSC provide M1=5.3 and M2=5.4 for EQ's

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=858980

The only difference between these 2 events could be seen on gravity anomaly records at same gravity station, for 1 EQ 2A=600, 2 EQ 2A=3000 nm/s^2. Log(A2/A1)=Log(3000/600)=Log(5)=0.7=M2-M1. The fact, that difference between EQs is 0.7 magnitude is not reflected by EMSC. EMSC estimate 0.1 magnitude difference, which is wrong.

Regards,

Sandu

Notice. Regarding EMSC magnitudes for 2 EQ in Greece, yesterday, 19.05.2020

As was mentioned above, 4 hours ago, here, the difference was 0.1 as 5.3 and 5.4. Now, is 5.3 and 5.8, after review of EMSC. In fact, the real difference is 0.7 based on acceleration amplitudes recorded at same gravity stations. Anyway, corrections has been made by EMSC so, looks better the seismic report.

Regards

Sandu

Dear Colleagues,

How it was expected for time window 16.05-23.05.2020, we have M7*(6.1) EQ report from EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=860345

Forecast - successful!

From gravity records anomalies, the acceleration values amplitude are 2600nm/s^2, and from same region, to compare M7*(6.0) EQ, reported by EMSC, 2018.06.30 is 600nm/s^2. This fact, suggests for Log(2600/600)=Log(4.3)=0.5 difference, or 6.5 for today event.

Preliminary estimations of EMSC is 6.1, now

Looking for corrections

Regards,

Sandu

Warning for today seismic active region, Mexico area, high probability for aftershocks for next 24 hours: today, 18:00-20:00, and midnight 24:00-02:00, tomorrow, 07:00-09:00, and 12:00-14:00. For these time window we expect rise in seismic activity.

Regards,

Sandu

Colleagues,

Yesterday, 27.05.2020 an M7*(6.1) EQ occurs, just on time! EMSC link

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=862077

"On time" - means fits earth-sun-moon gravity interaction model.

Regards,

Sandu

Notice on EQ forecast for next week [29.05.-05.06.2020]

Probability for M7*(6.0+) occurence is 90%

Keep GLOBAL

Regards,

Sandu

Dear Colleagues,

As forecasted, M7*(6.8) EQ occurs today, 03.06.2020, just on time! EMSC link

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=864463

Successful!

Waiting for magnitude precision. First estimation is 6.8

Regards,

Sandu

Notice on EQ forecast for the next week [08.06-15.06.2020]

Probability for M7*(6.0+) occurence is 90%

Keep GLOBAL (07.06.2020 20:00)

Regards,

Sandu

Just on time! M7*(6.0) EQ occurs yesterday, 10.06.2020, according EMSC link report

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=866603

Anyway, the energy is not released yet. Still waiting for big shock on remains time-window 11.06-15.06.2020

Keep Global

Regards

Sandu

Hi all,

Regarding today global seismic activity, EMSC reports 5.8 magnitude for an EQ, by this link: https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=867018

From EMSC history seismic records of this area, we found similar EQ M7*(6.0) for 2018.04.19

Both, 2018 and today 2020 event have same gravity anomaly magnitude recorded by same European gravity station 500nm/s^2. This means, the magnitude should be same : or 5.8 or 6.0

If check additional event for this area, on 2015.10.23 with M7*(6.0) we found gravity anomaly 400 nm/s^2. So for certain it should be M7*(6.0) today.

Anyway..

Regards,

Sandu

Dear Colleagues,

As was mentioned above, before, the forecast for M7*(6.0+) was expected the most for remaining time window 11.06-15.06.2020.

Forecast successful !

M7*(6.7) EQ occurs today 13.06.2020

EMSC link:

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=867396

Waiting for EMSC magnitude corrections..

Regards,

Sandu

The energy still release in the region, by not classic "aftershoks" M7*(6.2). Just on time!

EMSC link with first magnitude estimation:

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=867446

Waiting for magnitude corrections next hours, from EMSC..

Regards,

Sandu

Dear All,

I would like to leave a notice for next week

Time window 15.06-22.06.2020

The probability of M7*(6.0+) is 90%

Keep Global.

Regards,

Sandu

Notice: Forecast successful

EMSC link for M8*(7.4)

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=868826

Regards

Sandu

Notice on EQF for comming next week 29.06-05.07.2020. M7*(6.0+) occurence with 90% of probability. Global.

Regards,

Sandu

Just on time! M6*(5.9) EQ occurs on 05.07.2020 as maximum released energy by seismic event. Here is the EMSC link

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=874165

If to consider standard error values 0.1, so the 5.9+/-0.1=6.0 which is at border between M6* and M7*

Anyway, for this week we have encrease on probability for energy release 99% for M7*

Time window 06.07-13.07.2020

Regards,

Sandu

OK. As Forecasted, we have M7*(6.3) EQ preliminary estimation from EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=874445

Just on time! Looking for correction in magnitude, next hours.

Keep GLOBAL

Regads,

Sandu

EQ Forecast for next week 13.07-20.07.2020

Energy release by M7*(6.0+) is 90% probability.

Keep Global

Regads

Sandu

Just on time! M8*(7.0+) EQ occurs today 17.07.2020 at 02:50 UT, according EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=877441

Looking for magnitude corrections. Anyway, the EQ is strong if to consider the gravity anomaly pattern and amplitudes in records for Europe area.

Keep Global

Regards,

Sandu

Just on time!

M8*(7.8) EQ occurs today, 22.07.2020.

EMSC link

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=878808

Forecast could be done by few days before, up today, but not fixed here.

Keep Global

Regards,

Sandu

The closest to what you have asked for that I have done is a paper I published in the April 2010 issue of the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, titled "Precursory Rise of P-Wave Attenuation before the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake."

Just on time!

M7*(6.3) EQ occurs today 22.07.2020 at 20:07, link EMSC.

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=879003

No formal Forecast note has been done here.

Regards,

Sandu

Just on time! M7*(6.1) EQ preliminary report

The EMSC link below

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=879881

Looking for magnitude corrections

Keep Global

Regards

Sandu

Note: EQ forecast 28.07-02.08.2020

M7*(6.0+) EQ occurence with 95% probability

Location: Global

Regards,

Sandu I.

First bird, just on time!

M7*(6.1) EQ occurs 28.07.2020 08:03 UT.

EMSC link

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=880479

Alert - active, the energy not released yet

Regards

Sandu

Just on time!

As it is was forecasted and expected, M7*(6.4) EQ occurs in the specified time window.

EMSC link

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=881621

Regards

Sandu

Warning still active for next week 03.07-10.07

M7*(6.0+) EQ occurence is with 95%

Regards,

Sandu

Impressive but utterly meaningless! On average more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or greater occur per month, globally, anyway.

To Kin-Yip @

Thank you for yor (simmilar) comment here.

Yes, statistics, and again statistics, is used in discussions. But, in fact, the cause of this are in the statistics methodology roots, understanding and use.

By the way, you claim that (on average) some number of earthquake occurs monthly, globally, anyway - here, I will agree and disagree (on same time). First, it is about incomplete sentence, you build, which is not totally clear, and ask to be compleded by additional questions:

1. Have you done the investigation by yourself on computing mean values of EQ/month ? If yes, go next question, if No -specify reference of this investigation (all details can be found in the relevant authors paper).

2. Data used, especially, time interval. Do you try to use different values for time interval as observation period? If yes, please add the missing conclusions here, if No, advice to do. This is because of non homogenic (liniar) distribution of EQ occurence in time, so you will have each time different value for EQ/ month. So, the main conclusion here is - using this ratio is useless because it is not appropriate with EQ phenomena, and results are strongly related by the used data. And we know, the ratio - as a law, should go to some constancy on behaviour with some standard fixed appropriate deviations. For this ratio, I can suggest you from my experience, and hundreds of scientist from the field that ratio is not costant value yet.

3. In order to have EQ/month, this means you use time intervals more than month, like years... how about weeks?

Can you find in my time window that I refer to the month? I check, once more, between hundreds of forecasts 99.9% are related to weeks, and with more than 95% confidence all of them were successful. Can you find to someone of scientists simmilar results? Or maybe, simmilar statistics related to weeks?

I suppose no. And this is important.

To say, according annual data, that on average 11 EQ per year occurs, is not simmilar with occurence of 1 EQ per month, because last sentence is stronger in confidence. Can you confirm or not regarding a month time interval if an EQ with M7*(6.0+) will occur on specific month? Have you tried? I think it is more difficult, than to resume for a year. For a year, seems to have more stable results, but again it differs from year to year. So, unstable!

If, it is difficult for a month, here, I will not continue questions for weeks forecast. On classic, and modern interpretations through statistics of seismic activity, to forecast for the weeks it is impossible - at the moment, and for comming centuries.

This was to explain the difference, between, clasic, modern way of thinking by statistics an methods used by me. I have no needs to know seismic activity about 100 years ago, or 1000 years ago, to tell about seismic activity for next week. But I do.

Do you still think it is usless to successful forecast weekly the M7* ? How about the classic resources allowed by statistics, which can't forecast EQ for month even?

I suggest - totally usless, then.

At the end, what we have ?

This is open question for everyone..

Regards,

Sandu

I can remember the era in early 1980s when a phalanx of Californian practitioners in astrology, all very knowledgeable with USGS earthquake statistics, used to make far more impressive and successful," but equally meaningless, earthquake predictions/forecasts" in print media than yours. With waning readership, they eventually stopped forecasting and went into some other nebulous trades.

To Kin-Yip @

Thank you for your valorous detailed answer.

Can I ask for a favor, please specify several works of which you make reference for. On the 80s era many interesting events occurs, even the forecast phenomena has been observed for seismic activity..

Thank you in advance.

Regards,

Sandu

If I were you, I wouldn't waste precious time on it. You have an academic/research future ahead of you, and you can hardly afford doing what you have been doing here.

"On the 80s era many interesting events occurs, even the forecast phenomena has been observed for seismic activity.." ? You must have been sleeping throughout all these years. No reputable, prestigious international academic journals had ever reported credible earthquake precursors in 1980s. Had someone been audacious enough to apply for an earthquake prediction research grants in the United States of America, for example, he or she would have been considered crazy, mentally deranged, and certainly unfit to work as a scientist.

Stop communicating with me. This is absolutely the very last reply I will ever care to write to you.

Regarding the EQ forecast of this week, above

Just on time! M7*(6.5) EQ is reported by EMSC on link

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=882596

The energy is not released yet so, the alert is still active.

Regards,

Sandu

Just on time! M7*(6.3) EQ occurs few hours ago on 06.08.2020 23:37. EMSC report link

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=882976

Regards,

Sandu

EQ Forecast for next week 17.08-24.08.2020

Probability of M7*(6.0+) EQ occurence 90%

Keep Global!

Regards,

Sandu

Just on time! M7*(6.6) EQ occurs in Phillipine area, according EMSC estimation and report link https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=886221

In fact, the EQ is stronger than December 2019 M6.8 and 2018 M7.0 EQ in the area, according gravity anomaly records from Europe stations. Anyway, corrections in magnitude will come soon.

Keep safety, keep global

Regards,

Sandu

Just on time! M7*(6.8) EQ and M7*(6.9) occurs in Sumatra area, according EMSC estimation and report link

M6.8 https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=886533

M6.9 https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=886534

The time difference beetwen OT of the events are 6 min, which, in fact is too small window for distinguish such a big events and should be considered as one event. The depth on 10, and 30 km made formal difference again so, using attenuation formula - the secon event seems to be greather and estimate as 6.9, but here, we have only 1 event, with identical anomaly shape on gravity records in Europe as from the morning Philipine ones M6.6.

As, I have mentioned above, the magnitude there should be 6.8-7.0, same as for Sumatra estimated by EMSC for 18.08.2020.

Lets resume for 18.08.2020.

By EMSC we have 3 EQ 6.6 and 6.8, 6.9

By gravity anomalies we have 2 EQ 6.8-7.0.

Anyway, the most important is that M7* EQ occurs on time!

Be safety, keep global

Regards,

Sandu

Just on time! M7*(6.9) EQ, first stime from EMSC agency

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=887257

Keep safety, keep global

Regards,

Sandu

Dear Kin-Yip Chun,

Moving from China in Canada, somewhat you have forgotten natal place: what do you think about the next place:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ze6nzaO-rE

and:

'Prediction efforts are still developing and as technology advances. The Chinese Earthquake Administration (CEA) takes great care in gathering data in all provinces and working to ensure the safety of citizens and visitors. In fact, in 1975 many lives were saved through early evacuation of the Haicheng area after seismologists reported activity the day before a 7.3 magnitude earthquake rocked the area. '

http://www.ief.ac.cn/home/index.html

At the next discussion you will see that perhaps you have given wrong advice to Sandu:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Exists_the_next_situation_when_an_outsider_researcher_who_has_achieved_a_very_encouraging_result_in_earthquake_forecasting_is_not_supported...

Regards,

Laszlo

Dear Dr. Laszlo,

I advise Dr. Sandu not to waste any more of his time on what he has been doing: he couldn't possibly afford doing so for a young man in academia.

You are right, I did move move from China to Canada in early 1968 when I was very young -- before I had finished my high school. But what has my move to Canada more than 50 years ago anything to do with any issue you want to raise?

Your mention of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake is interesting. The "prediction" was made not by scientists but rather by an "revolutionary leader" with no seismological background whatsoever. The officially announced "scientific basis" for that prediction has long been universally deemed unreliable, unscientific, and of no value. The so-called "success" was a political propaganda. It was preceded by countless false alarms made by real seismologists, resulting in dire economic damages. You should know that if one makes enough random guesses, he/she may get lucky one day. Today, most Chinese seismologists won't be happy talking about the Haicheng earthquake prediction -- for a good reason.

Now, please kindly stop writing to me any more on this subject, Dr. Laszlo.

To Kin-Yip Chun:

Thanx for your valuable comments here. I hope, also, someone will follow your advices in the future. All the best!

OK

EQ forecast for next week. 28.08- 04.09.2020

We should expect M7*(6.0+) with 95% probability in occurence. Global.

Regards,

Sandu

Just on time! M7*(6.5) EQ,, reported by EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=889777

The EQ magnitude has been modified from 5.8 to 6.5 few hours ago. M6.5, is correct now, due to the gravity impact of this event 2A=2500 , and 30.11.2017 EQ estimated M7*(6.5) by EMSC for same area, with gravity anomaly 2A=3000 nm/s^2.

Regards

Sandu

Just on time!

M7*(6.2) EQ occurs today 31.08.2020

EMSC link https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=889970

Regards,

Sandu

And finally - just on time! M7*(6.8) EQ Occurs today 01.09.2020.

EMSC link

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=890083

Regards,

Sandu

UPDATE. Just on time!

M7*(6.0) EQ according EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=890536

M7*(6.3) EQ according EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=890563

M7*(6.2) EQ according EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=890597

M7*(6.6) EQ according EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=890650

M7*(6.3) EQ according EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=890754

Fits perfect gravity model for trinity system interaction Earth-Sun-Moon. And could be forecasted!

Regards

Sandu

Same case: just on time!

M7*(6.2) EQ according EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=890924

Regards,

Sandu

Warning for comming week M7*

Time window 08.09.2020-14.09.2020

Forecast M7*(6.0+) EQ, with 95% probability.

Keep Global.

Regards,

Sandu

Just on time!

M7*(6.3) EQ preleminary report from EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=901629

Regards

Sandu

Just on time!

M7*(6.1) EQ preleminary report from EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=901879

Regards

Sandu

Just on time!

M7*(6.7) EQ occured by EMSC link

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=903616

Regards

Sandu

Update: 28.09-05.10.2020

EQ forecast for M7* is with 95% probability.

Regards,

Sandu

Just on time!

M7*(6.5) EQ occurs today, according EMSC

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=907181

Regards

Sandu

UPDATE:

EQ forecast for next week. 16.10-23.10.2020.

High probability for M7* up to 95%. Global.

Be safe.

Sandu

Just on time!

M8*(7.5) EQ occurs today 19.10.2020

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=912660

Regards

Sandu I.

Note: M8*(7.0) EQ occured on 30.10.2020.

EMSC link https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=915787

Just on time!

UPDATE:

EQ forecast for next week. 04.11-11.11.2020.

High probability for M7* up to 95%. Global.

Be safe.

Sandu

Today, 07.11.2020 - Just on time!

EQ M7*(6.0+) occured few hours ago, according EMSC link https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=919051

EMSC first estimation is M5.9.

According to gravity impact of this region for European gravitational observatory should be M6.0+ from past records of 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016.

Regards,

Sandu I.

Notice.. regardin the EQ above, EMSC made corrections from M5.9 to M6.2, of course, using the formula and push the hypocenter deeper from 20 to 64 km. :)

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=919051

Regards,

Sandu

Warning of M7* EQ: forecast

Alert period 13.11-20.11.2020

Probability of occurence 95%

Keep Global

Regards

Sandu

Note. Just on time! 16.11.2020 M7*(6.1) EQ

EMSC link

https://m.emsc.eu/earthquake/earthquake.php?id=921547

Also, M7*(6.2) EQ occurs on 21.11.2020 at the end of EF period.

Regards

Sandu

UPDATE: warning for next comming week.

Forecast Period: 29.11.-06.12.2020

Probability of occurence:

95% for M7*

80% for M8*

Location: Global

Regards. Be safe

Sandu I.

Just on time !

M7* EQ occurs on 30.11.2020 and 01.12.2020

EMSC link...

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=925560

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=925558

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=925825

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=925887

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=927387

Regards

Sandu

WARNING: M7 or M8* EQ occurence is possible to occur in a week 04.12.-11.12.2020

Probability: 80-95%

Update. Location: Global

Be safe

Sandu

Just on time!

EMSC link for M7* EQ

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=927387

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=928408

Regards,

Sandu