I am doing a research on a Markov chain approach on the behavior of rainfall and am considering first and second order chains. Using the Bayesian Information Criterion I want to determine the optimal model and use the optimal model to determine the expected length of dry (rainy) spell. So for second order models I am not sure of how I calculate the expected length of dry (rainy) spells?
In the power presentation (before the end of the presentation) in the link below you will find how estimate the spill length of first order Markov. It may help you,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235788470_Modeling_Monthly_Rainfall_Records_in_Arid_Zones_Using_Markov_Chains_Saudi_Arabia_Case_Study
Data Modeling Monthly Rainfall Records in Arid Zones Using Markov...
The expect length of higher Markov model can be found from my paper 2007, AISM.
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