Considering a logistic system including plant,warehouses,supplier,retailers in single period with different transportation modes,with initial investment, How could we make different scenarios?what is basic rule for building a scenario?
Abstract prototyping technique (commonly used to model products and their use scenarios) may be tuned and used to model a logistic system.
Hi Iman,
Regardless the software.... you need logistics data (demand & supply forecast, inventory levels - polices - safety stock - accuracy..., transportation equipment - experience - distances ..., Delivery performance - time - errors - delay..., Warehouse space, equipment, technology....workers # and experiences, mgmt ....pla pla .... then you can start with three main scenarios (optimistic - pessimistic- and most likely) for each element in the logistics system, then based on If-then rule your scenarios start to expand in all directions.
one of the good software that used in SC and logistics simulation is the FlexSim Simulation Software
http://www.flexsim.com/
Best Wishes
You coud also use petri nets to simulate and see our scenarii if the systems is not too complicated.
Best regards
a website for a possible free simulator is http://www.petrinetsimulator.com/. It helps simulate discrete events systems such as some manufacturing systems plus logistics.
You could do a lot of "range" or parametric (aka sensitivity) analysis? If you have the problem as a linear program (which is a big if), the shadow prices will have useful information about the value of increasing your scarce resources (the r.h.s. values in the constraints) without re-optimizing. These properties are less easy to use if there are a lot of simultaneous changes (i.e. change of basis). Also, as I'm sure you know, there are higher difficulties when you have integer as opposed to cts. variables.
In my opinion if you are interested to analyze logistics performance, the analysis need to focus and basis its scenarios based on the main logistical principles of flow, system and total-costs theory. In most analysis country specific condition like legal framework, physical and ICT infrastructure are missed in most the analysis. Specifically if you consider in your analysis the part of developing countries, you need to care the specific nature and challenges existed there also. Such type of analysis holistic analysis can be done with the help of the standard Supply Chain Operations Reference model (SCOR) viewed from the perspective of an integrated supply chain. You can refer an interesting paper published by Vallee et al.
Hi Iman,
There are couple ways you can do this.
1) Look at some literature on logistics - and identify some possible scenarios based on the industry sector you have in your country
2) Identify a few industry sectors or companies in your country- and map the logistics patterns they are having. Then based on it you can create the logistics scenarios to analyse it.
I would prefer the 2nd option, since it will provides an empirical analysis and potential case study to verify your research.
Hope it helps
Sev
The recomended book to build scenarios the "Shell way" (there are other methods, like the one created by frenchman Michel Godet) is "The Art of the Long View", by Peter Schwartz. It´s not a difficult tool.
regards
Gustavo Concari
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