Even if you could find such a model or equation I would strongly recommend you do not use it. Pesticide breakdown, or usually, the breakdown of the active substance/component of a given pesticide differs strongly between temperatures, organic matter amount, oxic/anoxic conditions and microbiome complexity. In addition, active substances of pesticides can belong to many different groups of chemicals, and of course this influences the speed at which they break down or disperse in the environment.
In flowing water they will likely follow the stream, in non-flowing water they will eventually settle in the muck at the bottom. If you lack the proper (analysis) equipment (for example liquid chromatography) and sampling opportunity even your best effort will be no more than a guess.