Hi Everybody,
I want to start research about estimating "Runoff" for future decades.
As we know, there are lots values that can effect to this amount, According to the climate change, Is there any model or simulator for prediction the amount of this parameter?
Cheers,
Atena
Dear Atena, about Climate Changing models, see references in and at end of this paper by Brian Hayes, available at B. Hayes site as reprint from American Scientist. I have no verified if some reference talk about Runoff, but some simulator could be useful.
Gianluca
Hi Atena,
The runoff in a catchment is much dependent on the basin-averaged precipitation. If you could predict the areal precipitation, then you could predict the runoff of the river, given an absence of strong human interference. Unfortunately, it is usually difficult to predict precipitation decades ahead using only climate models. Long-term precipitation observational records and statistical techniques would be useful to understand the characteristics of cycles and shifts intrinsic to the climatic data series in this regard.
Guoyu Ren
Dear Atena,
I believe there will be many changes in our world during the next decades, namely:
-In teaching in general: distance education with new technologies will occupy a large place. As a result, schools, institutes and universities will be almost empty. There are no longer age limits for teaching or a capacity problem of an educational institution.
-The remote work, will occupy a large place in the world economy.
-The doctor can consult patients at a distance and send the order remotely. Surgeons, dentists and other experts can practice their work remotely using new technologies and artificial intelligence.
-The lack of freshwater resources can be at the origins of the wars rooms.
-The new technologies will impose new customs and traditions, new behaviors, etc. There are values that will become universal (adopted by everyone).
- Pollution, despite the efforts of the whole world to reduce it to a minimum level and limit its impact on the environment and humanity; is at the origin of many diseases and catastrophes worldwide of all kinds. manage the business remotely.
- Engineers and factory managers can control remotely.
- Morality is not the same anymore. there are radical changes.
Finally, in spite of all that, I wish prosperity and good health for everyone.
Best regards.
Dr. Adel OUESLATI
The Australian Guidelines for estimating rainfall and runoff may help develop your methodology. This is a government sponsored guidelines available as open source.
http://book.arr.org.au.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/
Many models are used for local conditions. Accuracy is not good for a few years, but a twenty year average is reasonably good.
In the place of my birth and early years the run off occurred mostly at flood stage, and was averaged for fifteen years in reservoirs. Even then the reservoirs went empty at times, and other times over flowed.
The memory is one of drift wood in the tree tops above the banks of a dry wadi. With the value of time there is temptation to use the stored water and take the chances later.
Dear Atena
You can use LARS-WG for prediction precipitation for future period under climate change conditions. LARS-WG (Weather Generator) is a statistical downscaling modal that use IPCC scenarios. Then, using the obtained precipitation, you can use precipitation-runoff models to predict future runoff.
best regards
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