Half, average & most probable lives of tungsten filament lamps are exactly same. What one can infer from the view of physics, statistics, technology..

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Ette Etuk

Filament lamps while functioning are "as good as new". They have exponential failure laws.

U. Dreher

"What one can infer ..."?

The mechanisms (physics) of aging and failure are well-understood.

Production is withing very tight tolerances regarding the quality of the materials as well as mechanical production tolerances.

Overall: this is a quite "mature" technology showing what can be expected after more than a century of experience and mass-production.