Dear Brad,

For data/graphs see this excellent website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

For an introduction to the maths behind COVID-19 go to YouTube and search on 'SIR models'

For a more detailed introduction to the analysis start with the paper by Lin, et al (2020):

https://www.ijidonline.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1201-9712%2820%2930117-X

Much more detailed information can be found by conducting an Internet search on 'modelling infectious diseases'.

The first detailed mathematical model was published by Kermack and McKendrick in their 1927 paper: A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics, Royal Soc. This paper is now freely available on-line - just do a search. I would include a link but the system won't let me.

I hope this helps a little.

Kind regards,

Graham W Griffiths

Math for the growth phase is simple and this would be a good opportunity to introduce future students to calculus. If the rate of increase is proportional to the current quantity, we have: dn/dt=a*n. Separate and integrate to get: a*t=ln(n)-ln(b) or n=b*exp(a*t), the exponential growth curve. As the number of available recipients becomes limited, we get the back side of the hump. I wrote a book on seeing mathematics in everyday life, Living Math. It's a shame so many people are as afraid of math as COVID-19.

I suspect it is very hard to really model this well, because you would leave out important factors such as population distribution or age distribution and factors related to contention strategy.

You do it using only the most obvious factors.Like Dudley does.

As it grows you would subtract the infected and the dead from the base population at each step, to slow down eventually.