According to my PhD student (Rat), the framework species method of forest restoration adds around 156 tC/ha to above-ground tree biomass over 16 years. If the IPCC estimation for roots is added (x0.37), then the total tree carbon added is estimated at 214 tC/ha. This is for upland evergreen forest, northern Thailand, 1,300 m asl, 1,700 mm annual rainfall.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ty0qlf763s0i95/2017%20Rat%20AB%20Carbon%20storage%20- %20FINAL%20PAPER%20PUBLISHED.pdf?dl=0
The current price of EUROPEAN EMISSION ALLOWANCES is 22.83 EUR per ton CO2.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/co2-european-emission-allowances
That’s equivalent to 83.71 EUR per ton carbon or 92 US$. So, 214 t added carbon is worth 19,688 US$/ha. Total restoration costs are 1,700 – 4,000 US$ /ha (depending on the amount of natural regeneration present at the start). So conservatively, profit would be >15,000 US$/ha. Over 16 years, that averages out at 940 US$/ha/y.
According to our project partners in Krabi, families there are currently earning around 600 US$/ha/y from oil palm from year 7 to year 15 ,after plantation establishment. That’s 5,400 US$/ha over the 9 productive years of the plantation.
That makes forest restoration at least 50% more profitable than oil palm … just on the carbon value alone. If NTFP’s (the green supermarket) and a bit of ecotourism are thrown into the mix, then restoration becomes much more profitable than oil palm.
Can this be true? What am I missing here?
I am not well-versed in these costs and restoration, but can it be that the restoration costs and potential carbon allowance differs between the EU, the US and Thailand? Maybe the value of forest restoration in the EU is more valuable than palm oil in Thailand, but the restoration might not be more valuable in Thailand. The questions then becomes, if farmers would restore forests instead, how much would they really earn? Probably not 100% of the current carbon restoration value in EU? It seem that it's a lot easier for a local family to produce palm oil, than to set up a restoration project along with eco-tourism with the EU.
Oil palm plantations can have a higher net productivity than some forests and store more soil carbon than other agricultural systems. After 20 years there can be over 40 tC/Ha. Shouldn't that be incorporated into the comparison?
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