Current crude oil production approaching nearly 100 million barrels per day: How long will it sustain?
Currently only 30% of the production pertains to carbonate reservoir, while 70% production comes from sandstone reservoirs. On the other hand, we have only a couple of decades of production time left for sandstone reservoirs, while that for carbonate reservoirs (proven + probable reserves), we nearly have a century left. But, do we have enough technology to sustain the annual production of around 35 billion barrels – at least – for the next few decades (as the unconventional resources have become very costly and the discovery of the new conventional resources have become extremely remote)?
For that matter, will it be feasible for us to be able to achieve - the so called “peak oil” – at any point of time - in the future - as far as fractured carbonate reservoirs are concerned?
'Peak oil' is a technological and infrastructure issue. There are plenty of countries that are in their early stages of E&P - these same countries may become very large players in 50-100 years. At the same time, efficiency gains will allows us to recover better and more oil.
I doubt if the so-called 'peak-oil' would happen in this generation considering that a number of discoveries are springing up in unusual places (Guyana, Cyprus, Oman, offshore west Africa). About 4.5 billion boe in H1 in 2018 alone. Moreover, the deepwater in my opinion is barely known and am optimistic that with all the new technologies beyond seismic. Fks, AI, machine learning, CSEM etc, our greatest and biggest discoveries are yet to come.
I agree with Omosanya. With advancement in exploration techniques such as CSEM and deepwater exploration activities, newer plays and fields are discovered.
Time of conventional giants near huge consumers is practically over. We will have more and more small reserves in remote areas, offshore and from unconventionals. Oil production and tranportation costs will play increasing role event taking into account technological development. Will consumers be ready for high oil prices? Not all of them. So hydrocarbons can became too expensive for some current consumers. Probably, in 20-25 years we will have oil prices no less than 150 USD/barrel and general decrease in production and consumption having more and more explored reserves in the same time...
I agree with Kamaldeen Omosanya.This concept of peak oil has being discussed for several yers. Granted, it is natural that anything you consume without regeneration is likely to get exhausted. However, in the case of hydrocarbon more and more prolific resources are being discovered all over the world with the emergence of advance technology. Although, some of these prospects are limited in terms of accessibility and econimical viability. I believe if we can find a way to get places like the moon which were once termed as inaccesible, then it only a matter of time.
I think we should worry less about a peak oil. What should be the bone of contention should be, how relevant will hydrocarbon be in the generation of energy with the emergence of alternatives and yearn for a cleaner energy source.
The current oil production will not sustain long. The issue here is not related the technological or petrophysical limits. The issue is that due to the industry downturn resulted in a massive cut on the exploration operations. Without new seismics and exploration drilling you cannot open up new reserves to keep the sustainable oil production. There are no major asset development projects as the banks consider the investment in the oil and gas biz as a highly risky vrisky venture. There are monster hydrocarbons reserves (let's say in Russian Arctic waters) but to make them be available for production we still need to carry out exploration and development drilling, design and engineer oil production platforms, develop an infrastructure. In my opinion, we are to expect a huge decline in the oil production in a short-term and significant increase in the oil price. The winners will be countries where there is a massive production and hydrocarbon supply is guranteed with oil and gas pipelines or numerous LNG terminals.
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