(1) It’s important to find out where COVID-19 came from to prevent pandemics from happening in the future.
(2) Experts think COVID-19 most likely came from nature, although they haven’t ruled out a lab leak.
(3) We don’t have all the information we need to determine the source of COVID-19, and it will probably take time to figure it out.
Well, let us try to understand this without emotions
There are still a lot of questions about the origins of COVID-19. The first known cases of the illness occurred in Wuhan, Hubei District, China, starting on December 8, 2019. Since then, the COVID-19 pandemic has raged in every part of the world and has disrupted the lives of people everywhere. So it’s no surprise that many people are wondering exactly where the pandemic came from.
Here, we’ll break down the nature versus lab leak debate over COVID-19’s origins. We’ll look at the evidence on both sides, why scientists still can’t say for sure how the virus came to infect humans, and why it’s important to get a solid answer for this issue.
What are the main theories about where COVID-19 came from?
Recently, a team of scientists from the World Health Organization (WHO) traveled to China to gather evidence regarding the origins of COVID-19. While the question has not yet been answered, two leading theories have emerged regarding its origin:
(i) One theory is that the virus that causes COVID-19 leaped from animals to humans. COVID-19 is a coronavirus, and there are many other types of coronaviruses. Most of them affect animals, but there are other coronaviruses that affect humans. A coronavirus that infects animals could develop a mutation in its genetic material that allowed it to infect humans.
(ii) Another theory is that the first cases of COVID-19 came from a lab incident. A lab studying coronaviruses could have had an accident that exposed humans to COVID-19, after which it spread rapidly to the rest of the world.
Why does it matter where coronavirus originated?
The main reason to know where COVID-19 originated is to stop a pandemic from happening again. While it doesn’t change what we need to do to fight the current pandemic since it’s already here, learning what caused it can help us be prepared to prevent a pandemic like this from happening in the first place.
The last thing anyone wants is another pandemic, and learning how this one started will help us stay on top of future outbreaks that could become pandemics if we don’t stop them.
What evidence supports the theory that COVID developed naturally?
Unfortunately, we don’t have a lot of clear information about where COVID-19 came from, but the theory that the WHO considers most likely is that the virus made the leap from some animal host to humans. That being said, the virus has not yet been found in any animals, so the missing link in this chain remains undiscovered.
The virus could make the jump to humans in a few different ways:
1. The virus could have jumped to humans by direct contact with an infected animal at a market in Wuhan.
2. Another scenario would be if someone had been exposed to COVID-19 somewhere else before they traveled to Wuhan, and exposed people at a crowded market.
3. Alternatively, an animal might have been shipped to Wuhan from elsewhere, and there might even be a second animal that served as an intermediate host for the virus.
Other viruses have jumped from animals to humans this way. One example is the SARS outbreak in 2002. SARS is a coronavirus, like COVID-19 is.
Since we know this type of transmission has happened in the past, it’s reasonable to think that COVID-19 could have done something similar. Researchers haven’t found any proof of this yet for COVID-19, though. They have tested over 80,000 animals so far, and have not yet found the virus in any of them.
What roadblocks are keeping us from knowing where COVID-19 originated?
There are a few things making the efforts to determine the origin of COVID-19 difficult. First of all, finding the origins of outbreaks takes time. For example, it took 14 years for researchers to figure out the most likely origin of the SARS virus outbreak. While there is certainly a lot of attention placed on COVID-19, we need to keep in mind that figuring the origins of outbreaks takes awhile.
Second, investigators don’t seem to be able to get all the evidence that they need to determine the origins of the outbreak. The WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus points out that the team investigating the origins of the outbreak in China had a hard time getting access to the information they needed, and that more research is needed regarding the possibility of a lab leak and the possibility of cases of COVID-19 prior to the first known case on December 8, 2019.
Clearly, we shouldn’t expect a fast answer to the question of where COVID-19 came from. We’ll need more information and time to figure it out.
What are the ramifications of COVID-19 being leaked from a lab?
Since the real goal of finding the origin of COVID-19 is to prevent future outbreaks of infectious diseases, it would be important to know if a lab leak was responsible for the current pandemic. As Dr. Relman notes, if the pandemic started from a lab accident, then we would need significant changes to oversight of these labs, and a big increase in lab safety. Since this would take a lot of resources, it’s worth it to know if a lab leak was the source of the pandemic.
Now, this brings a good question, how could the lab leak theory affect efforts to stop the pandemic?
The origin of COVID-19 doesn’t change the need to fight the pandemic, since it’s already here. We don’t want to focus too much on finding the origins when we still need to deal with the problems of the pandemic happening right now. We need to keep focusing on vaccinations, as well as masking and social distancing when necessary. It’s especially important to focus on these measures right now, as we are seeing parts of the world open up again.
While figuring out where COVID-19 came from is important, we still need to be vigilant to prevent more waves of illness.
In conclusion, the bottom line is that we don’t know yet exactly where COVID-19 came from. Experts feel that it most likely jumped from animals to humans naturally, but the possibility of a lab leak has not been ruled out. We don’t have all of the evidence we need to make a definite conclusion. Remember that while knowing the origin of COVID-19 is important, we need to keep focusing on public health practices that keep us safe during the current pandemic.
If a lab leak - political concerns will prevent confirmation.
If there were data confirming for "natural" , these would have been revealed by now.
There is no assessment of what "most scientists" think. There is a speculative article written early in the epidemic the motivation of which has been challenged and an initial WHO opinion that was later withdrawn. The recent "racoon-dog" story is convoluted and suspicious. On the other side there are multiple reports, many heresay, of sloppy procedures in Wuhan lab an alleged withdrawn report of concern.
Both US DOE and FBI consider the lab leak more likely. Congressional action opened the record but to no news reports of impact.