Interesting discussion. Follow up...

Just collapsed economy for many countries and we can judge it after the crisis.

The coronavirus pandemic has had an unequal impact on economic sectors and jobs in Europe and also US, much of this related to the different degree to which they were exposed to digital technologies in previous years.

COVID19 pandemic effect the economy for all countries

Youth and newly graduated students will suffer the most.

After experiencing the longest expansion in history, the US labor market is now undergoing tremendous stress because of the COVID-19 outbreak and subsequent mitigation efforts. As a result of stay-at-home orders, nonessential business closures, health concerns, and reduced demand for products and services, many workers have stopped working. Since the coronavirus pandemic began this year, there have been 13 straight weeks where more than 1 million people have filed for unemployment for the first time. Let us hope for betterment of the situation in future.

...Even if COVID-19 infection rates dwindle, it is now clear that the economy is unlikely to bounce back quickly. This raises the spectre of long-term unemployment. Richard Layard (LSE) explains how the government could draw on successful models used in the UK... Layard, R. (2020). Richard Layard: how a job guarantee scheme can avoid the slide into long-term unemployment. LSE COVID-19 Blog.

After experiencing the longest expansion in history, the US labor market is now undergoing tremendous stress because of the COVID-19 outbreak and subsequent mitigation efforts. As a result of stay-at-home orders, nonessential business closures, health concerns, and reduced demand for products and services, many workers have stopped working. Since the coronavirus pandemic began this year, there have been 13 straight weeks where more than 1 million people have filed for unemployment for the first time. Let us hope for betterment of the situation in future.

Henrik, it has now emerged as an undoubtedly clear fact that the coronavirus crisis has borne and will continue to bear into the foreseeable future some adverse impacts on all sectors of life, including most notably health, education, tourism, travel and leisure, economy and social interactions. Indications from initial reports from a range of developed and developing economies seem to be suggesting that the extent of the damage and the length of time it may take to recover (i.e. bounce back) is partly dependent on not only the capacity of countries, economies, health, education and leisure systems to adapt but also how deep the scale of the scarring has been. Interesting and unprecedented times...

Labour Bureau of Statistics uses "long term unemployment" to describe a worker who has been jobless for at least 27 weeks and having actively sort for employment in the last 4 weeks. Traditionally, long term unemployment is caused by recession fed by Structural and Cyclical unemployment.

Covid 19 definitely has the tedency of precipitating long term unemployment because the lockdown around the world also locked down businesses that are the vehicle of employment. Businesses would still incur some running costs even though production is on halt, and since there is almost zero revenue, settlement of wage bill may no longer be easy, and given that wage is sticky downward, the immediate option is laying off workers.

Now, while businesses are at standstill, workers are active looking for employment online. Bearing in mind that from February that Covid19 pandemic started to date is almost 20 weeks already and still counting, only time will tell when the problem will be over; 7 more weeks would definitely add to the long term unemployment figures. Even if the situation returns to normalcy today, businesses would need time to adjust and to recover before employment of additional resources. For the full effect of Covid 19 on long term unemployment, let us wait until the storm is over, but for now, the outcome is certain but precision is doubtful.

I think that the epidemic will leave a big influence on the economy, especially of underdeveloped countries. This will cause instability of the state.

This situation confirmed what we know about the management of the development of the state. (It is necessary for every country to have a good development strategy, which is based on a technology development strategy. In order for it to be formulated and implemented, the stability of the state in the long term is necessary. That is why many developed countries are permanently collapsing the stability of smaller and less developed countries, thus preventing their development and a better future. Also, this epidemic has shown the unsustainability of the development of a state based on the services sector. There must be a commodity sector that mitigates shocks to services and vice versa. The former Yugoslavia was well developed on a strategy of complementary development of agriculture, transport, energy and the military sector. However, the impact of large and developed countries on the stability bring Yugoslavia to collapses.)

I think that all sectors in all countries will suffer from the effects of this crisis, because the consequences of the epidemic will remain with us for a long time, especially in Western countries.

Efforts to stem the spread of the new coronavirus - especially closing unnecessary companies - have an unprecedented impact on the global economy. Millions of people made initial claims for unemployment insurance during that period, indicating that the unemployment rate is already much higher than before, which is higher than the rate at the height of the Great Recession.

Dear Dr. Henrik G.S. Arvidsson ,

This article about covid-19 and youth unemployment:

https://www.csi.edu.au/media/uploads/csi_fact_sheet_social_covid-19_youth_unemployment.pdf

Please feel free to review the most recent knowledge services posts at SMR International. We are addressing this subject frequently: http://bit.ly/2vqOfqH.

And I would appreciate feedback if this content is of use.

Dear Guy. I will look. Best wishes

It will take around 2-3 years for the world to realize the new normal of employment.

Hello Dr. Henrik

The main changes should be in fiscal and monetary policies. Why? Because the changes in the production process and production means are inevitable, and these changes will affect the relationship between live labor and capital.

The development and enhancement in the production process mean improvements in the capital, and the consequences of that mean more technology is using than the live labor, which means the capital will substitute the live labor.

Political economy science identified the capital as a materialized labor, so in this case, the production process will focus on using more capital than live labor, and this is a rational and logical attitude of the owners of the capital. In this case, we will have more unemployment and a lot of new jobs in information technology, so we need to restructure the jobs.

More capital, less live labor leads to the rising rate of unemployment. The new conditions required changes in weekly working hours, for instance, the week hours should be 30 hours instead of 40 and more virtual work than on physical location work. Besides that, it required changes in retirement policies, for instance, the retirement age will be at the earlier age group than the current age groups.

All these changes in work conditions lead to making significant changes in fiscal and monetary policies and new retirement policy.

The COVID -19 accelerates these conditions. The COVID -19 enforces all actors of the production process to adopt the new changes in production activities.

It is my perception that COVID-19 pandemic will lead to the problem of unemployment both in developing as well as developed nations of the world. It will take sometime to return to the normalcy.

Thanks all for your answers.. I agree both regarding timeframe, given no other factors impact and I think both developed and developing nations will suffer. Some sectors such as tourism and transportation will be greatly effected. Do you like me see a divergence when it comes to exposure to certain sectors? Countries exposed to tourism for example might suffer more?

Have a look at my old paper IZA DP No. 6057

The Global Economic Crisis:

Long-Term Unemployment in the OECD

P.N. (Raja) Junankar

The financial effect of the 2020 coronavirus widespread in India has been to a great extent troublesome. India's development within the fourth quarter of the financial year 2020 went down to 3.1% concurring to the Service of Measurements. The Chief Financial Counsel to the Government of India said that this drop is basically due to the coronavirus widespread impact on the Indian economy. Eminently, India had moreover been seeing a pre-pandemic lull, and agreeing to the World Bank, the current widespread has "amplified pre-existing dangers to India's financial viewpoint".

I agree with your real question. this question 100% possibility of unemployment rise in this period .because everywhere traded disturbed in the COVID-19 period. like the Supply chain and demand chain as the not clearly continuous..

Dear Dr. Hendrik, I agree that there will be long term effects on the employment market. However, the actual impact will be different in each sector. You mentioned the tourism and hospitality sectors as examples that will be badly affected and as a country that relies on tourism, obviously, this has affected our labor market too. But I believe that people will see this as an opportunity to learn new skills and to gain financial independence. I am also optimistic that home-based businesses will grow as will employment opportunities in medical services and related support activities. So we can expect to see a change in the employment landscape itself.

Interesting discussion. Follow up...

Macro economic factors like GDP, unemployment rate, repo rate, etc.. and its impact on economic recovery is critical.

We tried looking at it from the economic impact and consumption behavior shift of users by analyzing the impact of macroeconomic parameters on business and simulate all for COVID19.

We have built multiple ensemble models to analyze the impact of Pandemic (increase in infection rate, mortality rate, spread, peak) on macroeconomic parameters, which in-turn will impact stocks and commodity sales. Hence used simulations then to predict the impact of different businesses and their recovery pattern at national and market levels.

Used techniques like nowcasting and DSGE

refer the paper, should this give you some idea:

Article 3Ps- Path, Pace and Pattern of Recovery from COVID-19 for Di...

Developed Countries are racing today to try to find the right vaccine against Covid-19, as well as to find a treatment that can cure the infected from this dangerous virus, and at the same time, these countries are trying to exploit their advanced medical capabilities to reach the so-called (immunity threshold), which may fall between : (30-75)% of the total population of one community or one country, to enter the stage of decreasing the impact of this virus, to the extent of little impact.

As for its effects on workers and unemployment, the developed countries follow the liberal system, free capitalism, and in which ownership belongs to the private sector. Business owners cannot employ people and gave them money without a suitable effort equal to this money (marginal productivity), and accordingly, people will seek a balance between: The risk of dying from the virus and the risk of dying from starvation. If the virus remains influential without finding a radical medical solution to the disease, then the immunity threshold is the solution for people to return to their work, and this matter may take a period of time, it can be determined based on the percentage specified for the immunity threshold, but it is more correct for factories, laboratories and people to resort to (technological progress) and managing Business in a safe way than before.

I think if COVID-19 if prolongs people shall get tiered of it and shall become careless

The sitution of agricutural based devloping counrty is similar with before COVID-19 . Farmer are not stop growing product . Even the got more benefit because of environment .

The data of many countries show that the indirect impact of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic is greater than the direct impact on the unemployment level. The indirect impact is the lockdown of the economy introduced by the governments of individual countries (e.g. temporary closure of shopping centers, cinemas, museums, city parks, offices, service establishments, hotels, restaurants, etc., and the transition of schools and universities to remote education via the Internet) and the introduction of interventionist anti-crisis socio-economic policy programs, i.e. instruments of systemic support for enterprises financed from the state finance system, in order to reduce the scale of the economic downturn, decrease in sales revenues and increase unemployment, introduced specific programs to maintain the continuity of operation of commercially operating economic entities despite the real reduction or suspension of business activity economic, i.e. also government interventionist programs Anti-crisis shields. All the above-mentioned factors have a greater impact on changes in the economic situation, including the level of unemployment, rather than the direct impact of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic consisting in citizens' fears of coronavirus infection and severe disease with Covid-19, which results in reduced mobility in in public places, wearing protective masks, preventive stay in home quarantine, etc. but voluntarily and not under compulsion resulting from legally sanctioned anti-pandemic and sanitary safety instruments. Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Covid-19 has put unemployment rates at the front lines with increasing rates worldwide.

Dear Henrik G.S. Arvidsson,

The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic has increased unemployment in many countries. However, the scale of the increase in unemployment varies greatly. This differentiation is determined by many factors, including:

- differentiation in terms of the industry-branch structure of the economy, the structure of individual categories of production factors used in production processes (land, work, capital, technology, innovation, entrepreneurship, etc.),

- differentiation in the pace of economic development of the country, the pace and nature of economic transformation, the implementation of innovations and modern technologies into economic processes, etc.

- differentiation in the scope of the instruments of interventionist monetary policy and the scope of participation of central banking in participation in financing the purchase of unserviceable, high-credit-risk assets of commercial banks, purchases of treasury bonds and money creation,

- diversification in terms of the scale of the anti-crisis, interventionist, Keynsian fiscal policy, fiscal policy as the key elements of socio-economic policy; this differentiation is determined by the state of the state's finances, the level of public debt, etc.,

- differentiation in the level of effectiveness of the implemented unemployment reduction programs, including programs for activating the cooperation of public institutions, local government units with entrepreneurs and professional activation programs for the unemployed, etc.,

- the scale of the cyclical, cross-border impact of global economic and financial crises on the economic situation, the level of economic growth, etc. of the national economy; the differentiation in this matter is determined by the level of economic and financial openness of the economy to international financial markets, the scale of exports and imports developed in the context of international trade, cross-border capital flows, etc.

- differentiation in the scope of the demographic structure of the society analyzed in relation to the industry-branch structure of the economy, equipping production processes with technology, the level of innovation in economic processes, the scale of new innovative start-ups, etc.,

- and other conditions, factors of comparative advantage, historical, natural, climatic determinants, etc.

Best wishes,

Dariusz Prokopowicz