Currently, there is a steady increase in supply of oil and gas with some countries producing below their full production capacity. It might mean the oil and gas prices will keep hoovering around current price for some time to come.
What is your opinion regarding this? Will the researchers in the near time be able to develop new and cheaper technologies to increase production from heavy oil and shale oil/gas reservoirs? Do you expect things to go worse and end up with even cheaper oil and gas prices.
Do you expect the price of oil to be shifted permanently and forget the 150 USD?
I look forward to hearing your opinions.
Oil price is a mystery. It is not as unpredictable ass stock market index but almost. Many organizations like IEA and World Bank has to revise their forecasts of future oil price. As for fundamentals, there is Hotelling work (1931) where he has proven that oil price should grow at the interest rate. Most of times it grew less and some periods even decline. Unconventional (you mean shale?) resources are also finite but they can postpone peak oil for several decades. They can influence middle term price development and indeed $150 might not be reached in the next 10 years. But if there will be no fast transition to renewable energies the fact that fossil fuels (both conventional or not) will create positive price trend, although with high volatility, partly due to geopolitical shocks.
Oil prices will remain to by mystery for a long period. I do like an answer of @Yuri. Geopolitics is the key. Some recent forecast are attached. I am very suspicious about $150 in next 10-15 years. Who knows!?
Dear @Khaldoon, thanks for sharing the question.
http://knoema.com/yxptpab/crude-oil-price-forecast-long-term-2015-to-2025-data-and-charts
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2015/04/30/lessons-in-oil-price-forecasting/
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-gains-on-bets-for-7th-straight-weekly-fall-in-crude-supplies-2015-06-17
Changes of world crude oil price have always been in the focus of economic and financial news. It is very crucial for poor people also, as hike in petrol prices will create price hike every where and in all fields and increase the burden on them. But it is still unknown (to me at least) what the deciding factors of oil rices are and how they influence the prices. I think it is a good area for further research to device a good and effective method to forecast oil prices.
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