Can anyone give me some good (preferably must-reads in Political Science) works of democratization theory in postcolonial settings? Much of the major democratization theories are extracted from the Western experiences; I am looking for work that explains democratization elsewhere.
Thank you!
Frantz Fanon: "The Wretched of the Earth", "White Skin Black Mask"
Walter Rodney: "How Europe Underdeveloped Africa"
Eric Williams "Capitalism and Slavery"
Over the past decade, three researchers (using different regime and demographic measures) have determined that the timing of the ascent to stable liberal democracy is statistically associated with the age structure of the population. In fact, using this theory, I published two papers in 2008/09 that predicted the rise of "one, maybe two liberal democracies" in North Africa between 2010 and 2020. Although I was laughed off the podium for making that prediction in a US State Department-sponsored event in 2008, that prediction came true this year, with Freedom House's assessment of Tunisia as "Free".
Each author has his own narrative, yet the statistics are (I feel) very convincing. The method is being introduced (in trials) as an early warning and planning tool. I've attached two early publications. One is in press in J. Intel. Analysis.
Chapter The Age-structural Maturity Thesis: The Impact of the Youth ...
I'm glad that you're intrigued by this research (political demography), Zaha. One way to look at the results of these articles is note that stable liberal democracy arises after age-structural youthfulness (a youth bulge) fades, the risk of violence declines, and the authoritarian bargain falls apart (why keep a greedy, unpopular authoritarian when you don't need him). A more general way to look at this relationship is to realize that "historic time" is not the right scale with which to be predicting the onset of democratization (and the decline in risk of conflict). "Age structural time" (median age, or other measures of age-structural maturity) are more closely associated with political behavior. Because the UN Population Division produces fairly accurate projections every two years, one can look into the future a few decades and make statistical predictions. I've attached the final draft of the J. Intel. Analysis paper, if you're interested. It should be out in a few weeks (hopefully).
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