1. i want to forecast health care expenditure(HCE) for 2020 and 2030 for Asian developing countries. I am using annual data ranging form 1995-2014 n the following variables per capita HCE, GDP per capita, education, life expectancy at birth, population under 15 and above 65 years and some other variables.
2. How can i get the future values for GDP and HCE like2015,2016, 2017.....?
Appreciated if some one tell me the codes in E-Views or Grtle or SPSS
3. How can i forecast HCE and GDP ?
Projecting the future using data from the past is a dangerous game with a question like this, because the effect of "era" has an enormous impact on something like HCE, and it is unlikely that data from 1995, 1996, 1997 have almost any relevance to the amount of HCE that will occur in 2020 and beyond (things have just changed so much). It is certainly something that we often resort to but I have some serious concerns about the simplistic approach you seem to be taking.
One very important thing to keep in mind: many of the variables you have collected DO have an effect on HCE but it will not be immediately apparent. The classic example of this is smoking and cancer incidence: a decrease in smoking TODAY does not mean lower cancer incidence TODAY, but most likely lower cancer incidence in 10, 15, 20 years from now.
An aging population may have immediate effects on HCE. But changes in education and life expectancy at birth are not likely to manifest themselves immediately. The statistical model you create to project future HCE in 2020-2030 should account for this.
Hi dear Andrew!
Thank you for your response. Could you please guide me which variable(s) should I take to capture the picture more clearly of HCE. Hope for your positive response.
Habib
Habib and Andrew many thanks, it was helpful question. would you please name some useful references for the topic
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