I am aware of works on large scale social disorganization brought about by environmental crises, such as in the cases of Teotihuacan in Mexico and the fall of the Maya empire in Yucatán. But I am interested in cases where people were able to predict major change and prepare for it, not relying on modern technological prediction apparatuses.
I'm not sure if this qualifies as the sort of "environmental crisis" you are studying, but my understanding is that during the Tokugawa Shogunate in Japan, after an earthquake and/or tsunami, Shogunate officials would survey the impacted areas after the fact to understand the extent of damage and tsunami run up. They used these surveys to prepare the population for future events, through such measures as setting in place high water markers so the population would know safe areas to evacuate in the event of a future tsunami.
I have been told these records are still useful for disaster preparedness in modern Japan because they address rare but large seismic events that occur on historic timescales, such as the relatively recent Tohoku-Oki earthquake.
Hi Renzo - if you research the periodic floods that sweep Egypt (pre - modern day) you may find references to temple scribes who gauged the severity of future flooding by annual river height variation - hope this helps :)
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