Dear Prof. Alfonso J. Rodriguez-Morales,

I don't think that such studies already exist, but it is a very good idea, and researchers should obviously look at this question. I would also like to know if such studies already exist.

Best regards,

David

Thanks David. Would you be willing to cooperate in a study we are to begin about it? Cooperate in this case means to me, after we have first analyses and draft, review, improve, make comments and suggestions for a better presentation and publication of such results.

I believe there are more studies about vitamin D deficiency and TB and the way it is linked to the climate is through the lack of sun exposure in cold weather which leads to TB progression.

That's interesting too.

I am willing to see if there is association or not if there is a data

I am not sure if there is seasonality to TB, this would be where you may want to begin as a starting point.  I would be interested in this subject both as a TB epidemiologist and as an environmental sociologist. I am aware of the vitamin D link also but if you were going down that route there may other factors surpassing vitamin D other than the lack of adequate sun exposure. would be an interesting one to look at.

I know that this (http://www.biogeo.uni-bayreuth.de/biogeo/index.php?lang=en) working group has experience with models for different vector-borne diseases and climate change which can possibly be adapted for tuberculosis.

Moreover this might be interesting for you:

https://www.liv.ac.uk/infection-and-global-health/research/climate-and-infectious-diseases-of-animals/eid2/

varialbilty as per geographical locations are been considered for epidemiology of TB but i am doubtful if any studies taken up on the influence of climatic changes on the same

There is also a very interesting phenomenon in our laboratory.Our lab work on antiviral  drug screening on Duck model every year.As it is well known that some ducks are born with Duck Hepatitis B virus while others are not. It seems that the positive rate is higher in warm weather among ducks than that in cold weather.So I guess there must be some relationship betweeen the susceptibllty to Duck Hepatitis B virus and the weather.

In vector-borne diseases is well established, particularly in dengue and malaria. But in the case of infectious respiratory diseases, there are not too much studies. I was looking at PubMed and was difficult to find at least one study, such as those made in VBD, trying to establish the potential impact of climate variability on TB.

I think  there is indirect influence via HIV

Ishag I do not understand your answer.

The trend in TB prevalence, incidence and mortality is in constant reduction from 2009 all over the World. In some areas the Millennium development Goal (MDG) will be reached (50% of incidence and mortality by 2015 compared to 1990), not in Africa, East mediterranean and east Europe. This is due to bettere adherence to guidelines in therapy, notification, patient isolation, as you can read on the last WHO TB report http://www.who.int/tb/publications/global_report/en/, and it is not correlated to climate change .

ELL R. Global climate change and the emergence/ re- emergence of infectious diseases. Int. J. Med. Microbiol.293 , (37), 16, 2004

Maurizio the trend is general, but in that global trend you do not see what happens in many countries where there is a significant variability in TB incidence. So, how you can be so sure, if that has not been analyzed.

Thank Olayinka, but there is no mention of TB on that article.

That is interesting Alberto. Thanks!

 Dear Alfonso, See references

Dear Alfonso, See reference

Thanks, but not specificly addressing TB.

Dear Morales,

Greetings!

This very old study http://www.jstor.org/stable/4574446, might help.

Relationship between climatic factors and air quality with tuberculosis in the Federal District, Brazil, 2003–2012.

Author links: Fernanda Monteiro de CastroFernandesaEder de SouzaMartinsbDaniella Melo Arnaud SampaioPedrosaaMaria do Socorro NantuaEvangelistaa

Results: From 2003 to 2012, there has been a higher incidence of Tuberculosis (27.0%) in male patients in the winter (27.2%). Patients under 15 years of age (28.6%) and older than 64 years (27.1%) were more affected in the fall. For youth and adults (15–64 years), the highest number of cases was reported during winter (44.3%). The disease was prevalent with ultraviolet radiation over 17 MJ/m2 (67.8%; p = 

Article El Niño Southern Oscillation and tuberculosis: Is there an a...

Hola Alfonso, yo trabajo con variabilidad climática asociada al ciclo El Niño/La Niña en ETVs, no he trabajado con TB, pero si estas interesado me gustaría explorar la posibilidad

Saludos.

En Santiago de Cuba estudiamos variabilidad climática relacionada con Meningoencefalitis viral, que si bien no se parece en nada a la tuberculosis, tiene entre sus vías de transmisión la respiratoria. Intentamos hacerlo con Tuberculosis y Lepra, pero el problema fundamental está en que los períodos de transmisión son tan largos y variables, que resulta bien complejo y en extremo difícil poder establecer una posible "relación estadístico robusta" que nos aporte indicios de relación con variables climáticas. La media del período de incubación de ambas enfermedades rompe por lo general con las escalas meteorológicas, y pudiera relacionarse más con la escala climática, pero estaríamos entonces interpretando fenómenos a meso-escala y sinceramente, no se hasta que punto nos aporte. Sería interesante al menos intentarlo. Abierto a su comentario, experiencias, sugerencias y posibilidades de intercambios en el tema.

Article Effect of Temperature and Altitude Difference on Tuberculosi...

Good point. I read some related articles that TB cases show seasonal variation and seasonality impacts its transmission dynamics. Sunlight, temperature, humidity has correlation with TB transmission. See details on https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24596279 ; https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27042199 ; https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28545939