I consider it necessary analyze the relationship of the parameters of rainfall and snowmelt with those of flow. In the analysis of the parameters, other statistical flow models and programs have to be considered. It is also important the calibration and sensitivity analysis. The quality of numerical and statistical model depends on the maturity of the conceptual model. You will find free flow models in the website of Valencia University in Spain and also in the website of the US Army.

I consider it necessary analyze the relationship of the parameters of rainfall and snowmelt with those of flow. In the analysis of the parameters, other statistical flow models and programs have to be considered. It is also important the calibration and sensitivity analysis. The quality of numerical and statistical model depends on the maturity of the conceptual model. You will find free flow models in the website of Valencia University in Spain and also in the website of the US Army.

If you have not reviewed these models already:

The USGS has a number of models on their site for both surface flow and groundwater, and interactions: http://water.usgs.gov/software/lists/surface_water

The U.S. National Weather Service has automated flow predictions for most major river systems in the U.S. as well: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php. I'm not exactly sure which model they use.

I am interested in working with you as a co-author. Please email me at [email protected] to let me know  what way i can be helpful

Dear @Io, I will follow your research since I am very interested in Danube. I do live at the Danube, in RAM, just across the Romania. There is no Romanian or Serbian Danube, Danube is European river! Huge one!

Thanks Ana-Maria for sharing this question!

As Roberto Lorenzo Rodríguez Pacheco noted the success depends from conceptual model chosen  

Salut,

Ma poti contacta pe adresa [email protected]

 Markov chain model 

I am afraid, that at the moment when a severe flood occurs, i.e., under high stress and emergency conditions, it cannot be done much reasonably. From the long-term perspective, even if only as a symptomatic measure, there are at disposal folding walls, which can be erected at the last moment before floods will come (there is rather positive experience in our country in this respect). However the causal solution certainly is in preventive measures, established over the whole landscape. An excellent example of such measures was done in Central Slovakia, where local hydrologists (M.Kravcik, Kosice: [email protected]) thanks to the help of that time prime minister (Ms Radkovicova) organized bulding of many small dams over all the smallest tributaries of rivers. About 100 000 such dams wer built during perhap half year near 400 villages using local materials. Such dams did not stop water, but made its flow more smooth cutting peaks, so that increased flow could take longer time, but the most dangerous peaks of flow were eliminated. Canalizing water pathways sometimes could help the particular village, but this measure increases the velocity of streaming water, so that next village will be hit even more. Therefore this is not a good solution. In hands with this measure is needed to look for the state of forest and field roads, if they are not concentrating flows, make large local "pools" as a certain holding capacities whenever possible and plant forests with suitable species in exposed open areas. A very good theoretical background is a theory of Biopump, developed by physicists-climatologists: V.Gorshkov and A.Makarieva ([email protected]) from the Nuclear Institute in Petersburg and supported by scientists from the US and Europe. The need of checking the quality of these measures including transpiration of woody species in different forest types is clear.  

Jan Cermak

Dear Ion,

I think I might help you concerning the hydrological part of your effort. But I need some more details about what do you want to do. You can contact me at [email protected].

Dear Ion, we are looking for a researcher, experienced in fractals, who would be interested in cooperation to apply it for tree structure research (roots from skeleton roots to root tips and crowns from big branches to shoots and leaves), for which we have some input data in a series of woody species. Coukld you recommend?      Jan

Thank you very much for your advice and the possibility of collaboration!

Ion, 

I can definitely help you with the hydrological aspects of your analyses, and would love the experience learning about fractal analyses. I can also input on any hydrologic, hydraulic models or routing methods that you may use for a basis of comparison.  Message me if you are interested in my help.

Best,

Zach

It was time for me to look in data of this river:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/270452888_A_Long-Tenn_Prognosis_of_Average_Annual_Flows_of_Danube_River_in_Orsova_Station

However, I understand this topic better. It is the most complex one, and the way of forecast more is complicated and one which hard to formalize.

Article A Long-Tenn Prognosis of Average Annual Flows of Danube Rive...