A minimum 30 year data series is needed. A double 30-year period or longer period would be better to be used. The trend analysis applying a data series shorter than 30 years is less relevant because normal climate is usually defined for three decades. However, actual length of data depends on many factors, and one would be research objectives as you mentioned. Another important factor is the availability of observational data. It is impossible to obtain long enough records in some areas for as many as possible stations for the analysis of climate change and variability.
A minimum 30 year data series is needed. A double 30-year period or longer period would be better to be used. The trend analysis applying a data series shorter than 30 years is less relevant because normal climate is usually defined for three decades. However, actual length of data depends on many factors, and one would be research objectives as you mentioned. Another important factor is the availability of observational data. It is impossible to obtain long enough records in some areas for as many as possible stations for the analysis of climate change and variability.
In 30 years the climate change is obviously seen form different sides. Things related to climate change will be interpreted correctly and accurately too.
When using time series, it can only be applied by using a number of views greater than (30) values, because the prediction of values can not be obtained or true unless the number of values is greater than (30).
I believe be some mistake. What we need to use 30 years in minimum specifically is a climatological normal of data (because we have the mean value theorem). To speak of climate change, the majority consider geological scale.
Thanks Gabriel Costa Malik Naser Abbood Alkinani Fadi Habash Gaber Ahmed Ibrahim ,,, I am totally agree with you all
My concern is... climate change is a complex issue... lots of driver such human system, earth system, solar system, and others contributing in our climate and weather system. To define climate change we must define scales and indicators of climate change more clearly.
climate change results based on 30 years data average and 100 years data average will surely produce different conclusions. whatever, it is 30 or 50 or 100, does not matter. whatever the period, we need to know very scientific reason behind
Because in thirty years the climate changes are clearly observed as well as the easiness of measuraning of all data taken randomly in this very long and estimated period of studies.
Indeed, the 30-year cycle for observing Earth's climate change seems to be too long now, because the global warmin process is progressing faster. Greenhouse gas emissions and environmental pollution are growing faster and faster. The 30-year period of the climate cycle, even if it is determined by the cyclical nature of changes in solar activity, i.e., appearing more or less in the period of such sunspot cycles, should increasingly take into account the civilization factors of climate change. Over the 30 years, one can notice a clear increase in, for example, weather anomalies and climatic cataclysms, which are a derivative of the increasingly rapid global warming process.
In addition, many data from climatologists indicate that from what mankind will implement in the transformation of classical energy based on the burning of minerals for renewable energy sources, the development of electromobility, improving the system of waste segregation, plastic reduction from packaging, development of electromobility etc. as part of the implementation of sustainable pro-ecological development This will depend on how much the temperature will increase until the end of the 21st century as part of the ongoing global warming process.
If mankind does not do much about it in the next decade, ie until 2030, as part of proecological reforms in the energy sector, etc. in order to focus the green economy on the green economy, according to the forecasts of climatologists, the average temperature at the Earth's surface will increase by the end of the 21st century 2-3 steps, which will mean a large increase in the scale and number of cases as part of weather anomalies and climatic disasters. The result will be the melting of glaciers, significant increase in the surface of the seas and oceans, drying of large areas of arable land in Africa and on other continents of the subtropical zone, etc.
At the end of 2018, the United Nations climate summit in Katowice took place in Katowice. COP (Conference of the Parties) on climate policy on Earth. UN climate summits, i.e. COP (Conference of the Parties) are global conferences during which climate policy actions are negotiated. Poland twice hosted them - in 2008 in Poznań and in 2013 in Warsaw. In December 2018, the climate summit is held for the first time now in Katowice in Poland. During this summit, conferences are held, discussions are held on the need to develop a sustainable development policy and the need for development of ecological, renewable energy sources in order to generate a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the future and ultimately reduce the average annual temperature rise on the Earth's surface. From the discussions it follows that it is necessary to develop eco-innovations, new pro-ecological energy sources, development of electromobility of transport means. It is necessary to develop and implement on a large scale renewable energy sources. In addition, it is important to increase the scale of afforestation, as forests and the flora contained in them absorb a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions.
The present lectures (Conference of the Parties) show that in recent years the warming process of the Earth's climate has accelerated significantly and therefore, in the black scenario of future climate changes, the temperature on the Earth's surface can rise by 4 ° C to the end of the 21st century. If this happened, then the scale of climate-related cataclysms that are dangerous to humans, including droughts, floods, fires and weather anomalies in many places around the world, will increase many times. The problem is very serious globally and therefore a lot depends on whether international cooperation will develop in order to limit these problems and their negative effects.
Therefore, in my opinion, observations of climate change should also take into account other determinants that could modify the cyclicality of climate change conditioned by the factors of the cosmos, including changes in the Sun's activity. More and more impact on climate change on Earth is generated by factors in the development of human civilization. Therefore, the influence of civilization factors should be more thoroughly and carefully examined and the cyclicality of climate changes determined for such long periods as, for example, 30 years should be modified in the direction of shortening the duration of specific cyclicality depending on specific factors taken into consideration.
It allows 30 data points to be analyzed for trends. Also 30 years is considered a "generation." Some of these numbers have been derived for the sake of convenience. Realistically they should shorten the duration from 30 years to something less as very significant changes have been happening over a shorter time period these days some human-caused.